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Draghi EU Parliament Testimony Dovish AS Expected. Japan GDP Misses Big. ZEW & CPIs Tuesday

Draghi EU Parliament Testimony  Dovish AS Expected. Japan GDP Misses Big. ZEW & CPIs Tuesday
  November 18, 2014 00:00 GMT
Daily Risk On/Off Heat Map

17 November--  16:50 GMT- Current Market Conditions
Markets have shifted to a  MIXED RISK posture as they move into the European close. Today has seen dovish comments by ECB President Draghi. Earlier in the day, we saw worse than expected Japanese GDP data which threw the economy into a technical recession.

In the Far East, equities ended sharply lower. European bourses are closing higher. U.S. shares are lower. The U.S 10-yr note yield is up. 10-yr bund yields are higher  Gilt yields are down. European peripheral bond yields are mostly lower.

The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields.

    • Tuesday features U.K. and U.S. inflation data, German ZEW data, and several second-tier U.S. items.
    • Japanese preliminary 3Q14 GDP fell well short of expectations, contracting by 0.40% (-1.6% pa). Falling inventories and weak retail sales data were blamed for the miss. Undoubtedly, the planned sales tax hike will have to be postponed and the JPY will remain at risk for additional weakness.
    • Testimony by ECB President Draghi was mainly dovish, but  broke no new ground.  His answers to the European Parliament had no impact on the markets.
    • U.S. Industrial Production missed market estimates.
    • Wednesday sees BOE and Fed policy minutes and U.S. Housing Starts data.
    • Key items Thursday are global flash PMI estimates, U.K. Retail Sales, U.S. CPI, Consumer Confidence and Existing Homes Sales.
    • Friday highlights are a speech by ECB President Draghi and Canadian CPI figures.
    • Be sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar and the Forex Forum for the complete list of key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.
    Weekly Trading Planner Top Items (GMT):
    09:30 GB CPI BOE targets inflation
    13:30 US PPI inflation measure
    21:00 US TIC Net Flows  capital flows
    04:30 JP Bank of Japan  policy
    09:30 GB BOE Minutes
    13:30 US House Starts/Permits Housing data
    18:00 FRB Fed Minutes
    01:45 CN HSBC flash PMI key sentiment measure
    08:00 FR MFG PMI flash key sentiment measure
    08:00 FR SVC PMI flash key sentiment measure
    08:28 DE MFG PMI flash key sentiment measure
    08:28 DE SVC PMI flash key sentiment measure
    08:58 EZ flash MFG PMI key sentiment measure
    08:58 EZ flash SVC PMI key sentiment measure
    09:30 GB Ret Sls consumer demand
    13:30 US CPI Fed targets inflation
    13:30 US Initial Claims weekly jobless
    14:45 US Mfg MKt PMI flash key sentiment measure
    15:00 US Existing Homes Top Housing Statistics
    15:30 US EIA Crude impacts crude prices
    13:30 CA CPI BOC targets CPI
    14:00 EZ Draghi

    Time  Imp Country Title Cons Last
    18/11/14 9:30 A GB CPI mm 0.10% 0.00%
    18/11/14 9:30 A GB CPI yy 1.20% 1.20%
    18/11/14 9:30 A GB RPI-X 2.30% 2.30%
    18/11/14 9:30 B GB C-Out PPI y 0.80% 0.80%
    18/11/14 10:00 B DE ZEW Conditions 1.5 3.2
    18/11/14 10:00 B DE ZEW Expectations 0.5 -3.6
    18/11/14 13:30 A US PPI core 0.10% 0.00%
    18/11/14 13:30 A US PPI -0.10% -0.10%
    18/11/14 15:00 B US NAHB Index 55 54
    18/11/14 21:00 A US TIC Net Flows $b n/a n/a
    18/11/14 21:00 B US TIC L-T Flows n/a 52.1
    18/11/14 21:30 C US API Energy n/a n/a
    19/11/14 0:00 A WEDNESDAY
    19/11/14 4:30 A JP Bank of Japan 0.10% 0.10%
    19/11/14 9:30 A GB BOE Minutes n/a n/a
    19/11/14 12:00 C US WK Mortgage Stats n/a n/a
    19/11/14 13:30 A US House Starts 1025 1017
    19/11/14 13:30 A US House Permits 1038 1031
    19/11/14 18:00 A FRB Fed Minutes n/a n/a
    20/11/14 0:00 A THURSDAY
    20/11/14 1:35 B JP flash PMI n/a 52.4
    20/11/14 1:45 A CN HSBC flash PMI 50.2 50.4
    20/11/14 8:00 A FR MFG PMI flash 48.5 48.5
    20/11/14 8:00 A FR SVC PMI flash 48.5 48.3
    20/11/14 8:28 A DE MFG PMI flash 51.5 51.4
    20/11/14 8:28 A DE SVC PMI flash 54.5 54.4
    20/11/14 8:58 A EZ flash MFG PMI 50.6 50.6
    20/11/14 8:58 A EZ flash SVC PMI 52.3 52.3
    20/11/14 9:30 A GB Ret Sls x-fuel mm 0.30% -0.30%
    20/11/14 9:30 A GB Ret Sls X-fuel yy 4.20% 3.10%
    20/11/14 9:30 A GB Ret Sls mm 0.30% -0.30%
    20/11/14 9:30 A GB Ret Sls yy 3.90% 2.70%
    20/11/14 11:00 B GB CBI Ind Output Trends n/a 18
    20/11/14 13:30 A US CPI m -0.10% 0.10%
    20/11/14 13:30 A US CPI yy 1.60% 1.70%
    20/11/14 13:30 A US core CPI m 0.10% 0.10%
    20/11/14 13:30 A US core CPI yy 1.70% 1.70%
    20/11/14 13:30 A US Initial Claims 280 290
    20/11/14 13:30 A US Cont Claims n/a 2.341
    20/11/14 14:45 A US Mfg MKt PMI flash 56.5 55.9
    20/11/14 15:00 B EZ Cons Conf prelim -10.8 -11.1
    20/11/14 15:00 A US Philly Fed 18 20.7
    20/11/14 15:00 A US Existing Homes 5.15 5.17
    20/11/14 15:00 B US Lead Ind 0.50% 0.80%
    20/11/14 15:30 A US EIA Crude mn n/a -1.74
    20/11/14 15:30 B US EIA Gasoline mn n/a 1.8
    20/11/14 15:30 B US EIA Distillate mn n/a -2.8
    20/11/14 15:30 B US EIA Cap Util n/a 90.10%
    20/11/14 15:30 C US Nat Gas bcf n/a 40

    calendarBe sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar  For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.

    See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and  comments from experienced traders to events as they happen.

    John M. BlandJohn M. Bland is a founding partner of He was a FX consultant to major corporations. He has also been a institutional forex trader, FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service and an author. John has an MBA in Finance and a BA in Economics from the University of California, Berkeley.
    Copyright 2014, GlobalViewpoint, Inc All rights reserved


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