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Wednesday November 19, 2014 - 03:57:07 GMT
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Morning Briefing : 19-Nov-2014 -0356 GMT

GOOD MORNING!

STOCKS
Dow (17,667.82, +0.23%) made new highs within the narrow range trades with good Producer Price Index data. We expect this trend of new highs to continue with good stream of economic data. However, we must also be cautious as these range-trade near highs do not signal new impulsive buy-power but equally matched sell-power. 

Nikkei (17,370.18, +0.15%) gained on the postponement of the sales-tax hike and the new uncertainties cap the market strength. Short-term hourly charts are forming bearish megaphone pattern and could indicate short-term bearishness targeting 16,800. For short term, we revise down our target expectations to 17,700 from 17,850 earlier. The larger term trend horizon remains bullish.

Shanghai (2,451.85, -0.18%) is trading below its support of 2,450. Below this level we expect a fall to 2,400 levels followed by a move back to 2,500.

Dax (9,456.53, +1.61%) showed some signs of life after very good German sentiments data, stopping out our short-term sell trade. Attention now shifts to the resistances at 9,565 and 9,700. Dax will conclusively enter the bullish-territory above 9,700, and we expect new highs above this level. No shorts should be held above 9,700 levels.

Nifty (8,425.90, -0.06%) was ranged as it consolidates above the range levels of 8,380. We expect it to move higher to 8,500 in short time. For longer term buyers, we advise caution as our studies show good probabilities of top in Sensex near 28,550.

COMMODITIES
On the back of news that Russian Central Bank added to its 
Gold reserves, Gold (1193.54) produced a corrective rally to 1205. This bounce from oversold zone would stand meaningless if it is not able to hold itself above 1200. Silver (16.13) is lacking directional momentum at this juncture, trading in a narrow range of 16-16.40. Resistance of 16.80 on the upside is intact, hence we continue with broader bearish view for the down side target of 14.60.

Brent (78.52) is trading below 80-81 levels. Higher bottom on short term hourly chart may cheer the intraday bulls. So, resistance levels of 80-81 levels could be tested while support seen at 77 and 78.Nymex WTI (74.47) could not survive the selling pressure from resistance zone of 76.50. We prefer being watchful at this time as it is trading below 76.50. On the flip side, its recent low of 73.26 is intact that is to be considered as the major support as of now. 

Study of 
Copper (3.0120) price trend along with recent candle pattern suggests upside is limited till 3.10. And, the bulls have to defend support level of 2.95 to maintain this range of 2.95-3.10. 

FOREX
Euro (1.2520) is moving in a narrow channeled corrective formation. We could see a rise to 1.2600 which forms a formidable resistance in charts. Failure to cross 1.2600 would lead to another leg of down move to retest the level of 1.240 and 1.2375 

Pound (1.5614) bounce from 1.5600 level was short-lived and we are back to testing this support. We think 1.55 is a more credible support. We think 1.5500-1.5475 level could hold giving a more credible corrective bounce.

Yen (117.12) is at new highs. We think the rally is likely to fizzle out near 118, as 118 is a very strong resistance on long term charts. We expect profit-booking to come in near 118, taking Yen back to 115 areas.

Consistent Dollar strength has been supporting Dollar-Rupee (61.74) but the direction / trend is unclear. The resistance at 61.85-90 regions has held back as of now. A break above could lead to a rise to 62.10. If the resistance holds, USDINR could drop back to 61.40.

INTEREST RATES
US yields picked up a bit more yesterday after the US PPI came in higher, with the 10Yr (2.33%) and 30Yr (3.05%) moving up about 4bps as compared to a 2pb rise in the 5Yr from 1.59% to 1.61%. Some more upside possible in the near term. Longer term may still be down though.

Fresh recession in Japan leading to fresh dip in yields. The Jap 30Yr (1.44%) seems headed towards 1.32%. The 10Yr (0.49%) has strong Resistance at 0.51% and can start moving down towards 0.45-0.40% soon. But, we have to see whether the 10-5Yr Spread (0.35%) breaks below horizontal Support at 0.33%.

The dip in the 
US-Japan 10Yr spread (1.83%) is not supporting a further rise in the Dollar-Yen(117.26), but the currency is not listening to the bond market.

Good ZEW Confidence Survey data yesterday is reflected in the Near-end of the 
German Yield Curve moving up. The 2Yr (-0.025%) continues to grind up towards the 0.0% mark and the 5Yr (0.13%) also seems to be making a base at 0.10%. A slow rise towards 0.17% may be possible while above 0.10%. 

The 
German-US 2Yr Spread (-0.54%) seems to have found a near-term Support at -0.59% and could try to rise a bit more towards -0.50%. If so, this could help the Euro (1.2515) firm up a bit more.

The Indian 10Yr GOI (8.1535%) could dip towards 8.10% unless there is a sharp bounce from current levels.

DATA TODAY



3:00 GMT or 8:30 IST BOJ Meeting 
...Expected <0.10 % ...Previous <0.10 % 

9:30 GMT or 15:00 IST UK BOE Minutes 
...Expected 0-0-9 ...Previous 0-0-9 

10:00 GMT or 15:30 IST EU EA (17) Curr Acct Bal 
...Previous 18.90 EUR Bln 

13:30 GMT or 19:00 IST 
US Housing Starts 
...Expected 1025 K ...Previous 1017 K 


DATA YESTERDAY:-
CN Foreign Direct Investments (YoY) 
...Previous -1.4 % ...Actual -1.2 % 

UK CPI Y/Y 
...Expected 1.20 % ...Previous 1.26 % ...Actual 1.30 % 

US PPI ex Food & Energy (MoM) 
...Expected 0.1 % ...Previous 0.0 % ...Actual 0.40 % 

US TICS (Net foreign purch of long-term Sec) 
...Expected 41.30 $ Bln ...Previous 52.10 $ Bln ...Actual 164.3 $ Bln 

 

 

 

 

 

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
US/JP- Holiday
All Day flash PMIs
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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