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Thursday November 20, 2014 - 11:34:14 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Major European PMI data continues to disappoint


Thu, 20 Nov 2014 5:15 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- Japan Oct Trade Balance: -0.7T v -1.027Te; Adj Trade Balance: -1.00T v -1.100Te; Exports see largest rise since Feb (Y/Y: 9.6% v 4.5%e)
- (JP) Japan Nov Preliminary Manufacturing PMI: 52.1 v 52.7e (6th consecutive expansion)
- China's economy is slowing as Nov Preliminary HSBC Manufacturing PMI hits a 6-month low (50.0 vs. 50.2e); Disinflationary pressures remain strong and the labour market showed further signs of weakening
- Swiss gold referendum shows 'yes' votes losing momentum
- Major European Nov Preliminary PMI data misses expectations with Germany Manufacturing barely holding on to expansion territory
- UK Oct retail sales handily beat expectations but price deflator registered its steepest decline since Dec 2002

**Economic Data***
- (CH) Swiss Oct Trade Balance (beats) (CHF): 3.3B v 2.6Be;
Real Exports M/M: +4.7 v -3.6% prior; Real Imports M/M: +2.7% v -6.2% prior
- (JP) Japan Oct Convenience Store Sales Y/Y: -1.1% v -1.3% prior (7th straight decline)
- (DE) Germany Oct PPI (in line) M/M: -0.2% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: -1.0% v -1.0%e
- (TW) Taiwan Oct Export Orders (beats) Y/Y: 13.4% v 9.4%e
- (FR) France Nov Preliminary PMI data mixed; Manufacturing PMI (misses
): 47.6 v 48.8e; Services PMI beats): 48.8 v 48.5e; Composite PMI: 48.4 v 48.7e
- (DE) Germany Nov Preliminary PMI data misses; Manufacturing PMI: 50.0 v 51.5e; Services PMI: 52.1 v 54.5e ; Composite PMI: 52.1 v 54.0e
- (HK) Hong Kong Oct CPI Composite Y/Y: 5.2% v 4.0%e
- (EU) Euro Zone Nov Preliminary PMI data misses; Manufacturing PMI: 50.4 v 50.8e; Services PMI: 51.3 v 52.4e; Composite PMI: 51.4 v 52.3e
- (NO) Norway Q3 GDP Q/Q: 0.5% v 0.5%e; GDP Mainland Q/Q: 0.4% v 0.2%e
- (UK) Oct Retail Sales Ex Auto M/M: 0.8% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 4.6% v 4.2%e
- (UK) Oct Retail Sales (Incl. Auto) M/M: 0.8% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 4.3% v 3.8%e


Fixed Income:
- (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) auction results mixed; sold total 3.04B vs. 2.0-3.0B indicated range in 2017, 202 and 2041 Bonds

- Sold 1.21B in 0.50% 2017 bono bond; Avg Yield: 0.638% v 0.692% prior; Bid-to-cover: 3.28x v 4.05x v prior; Maximum Yield: 0.677% v 0.720% prior
- Sold 1.26B in 1.40% 2020 bono; Avg Yield 1.060% v 0.963% prior; Bid-to-cover 2.77x v 4.67 prior; Maximum Yield: 1.084% v 0.971% prior
- Sold 571M in 4.70% July 2041 Bono bond; Avg Yield 3.455% v 5.432% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.35x v 2.1x prior; Maximum Yield 3.465% v 5.454% prior
-(FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) results solid; sold total 7.49 vs. 6.5-7.5B indicated range in 2017 and 2019 Oats
- Sold 1.498B in 1.0% July 2017 BTAN note; Avg Yield 0.05% v 0.55% prior; Bid-to-cover: 3.07x v 2.75x prior
- Sold 3.474B in 1.75% Feb 2017 BTAN; avg Yield 0.04% v 1.43% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.03x v 2.17x prior
- Sold 2.52B in 0.50% 2019 Oat; Avg Yield: 0.30% v 0.34% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.09x v 1.88x prior

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
**Equities**
Indices [Stoxx50 -0.8%
, FTSE 100 -0.4% at 6,667, DAX -0.4% at 9,431, CAC-40 -0.7% at 4,234, IBEX-35 -1.5% at 10,210, FTSE MIB -1.2% at 19,157, SMI +0.1% at 8,992, S&P 500 Futures -0.3% at 2,040]

- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European equity markets open mixed following Wednesday's declines in US markets , Fed minutes and weaker China PMI; Markets decline after weaker German PMI, Peripheral indices underperform amid wider debt spreads, France PMI mixed, FTSE 100 ex-dividends (Sainsbury, Carnival, Tate & Lyle, Vodafone, National Grid), Large steelmaker ThyssenKrupp beats estimates and resumes dividend payments, Austrian bank Raiffeisen beats ests, Lower iron ore prices continue to weigh on miners, Oil services M&A (France's CGG rejects approach from Technip) , US morning earnings (Best Buy, Dollar Tree, JinkoSolar)
By Sector

By sector:
- Basic Resources/Materials
[ThyssenKrupp TKA.DE +2.5% (FY results above ests, resumed dividend), Johnson Matthey JMAT.UK +4% (guided FY15 results higher y/y)]
- Energy [Technip TEC.FR -5.5% (merger offer for CGG); CGG CGG.FR +20% (merger approach from Technip)]
- Consumer Discretionary [Casino CO.FR -3.5% (weak IPO pricing for Cnova); Randstad RAND.NL +4.5% (Oct Rev +4% y/y)]
- Healthcare [Sanofi SAN.FR -2% (strategy update)]
- Financials [Investec INVP.UK +1% (H1 Op profit rose)]
- Industrials [Babcock International BAB.UK +1.5% (H1 pretax profit +32%)]
- Stoxx50 sectors [Basic Materials -1.1%, Utilities -1%, Consumer Cyclical -0.8%, Financials -0.8%, Industrials -0.8%, Energy -0.7%, Consumer Non-Cyclical -0.5%, Telecom -0.3%, Technology -0.3%]

***Speakers***
- France Fin Min Sapin
downplayed reports that France would be fined for non-compliance of EU budget rules
- Japan Fin Min Aso: to hold lower house election on Dec 14th
- Iran Oil Min: To hold talks with Saudi Arabia regarding market share at OPEC meeting next week
- Iran said not be willing to give up any ground on the Arak nuclear reactor

***Currencies***
- The EUR/USD saw its marginal gains in the session dissipate after German PMI Manufacturing came in below expectations and barely stayed in growth territory
. The pair slumped to test 1.2505
- USD/JPY hit fresh 7-year highs for the fifth consecutive day as it fell just short of the 119 handle aided by US yield advantage over the yen. (moving back to recent highs near 190 bps)

**Political/In the Papers:
- (EU) Goldman Sachs analysts forecast Euro Zone QE as likely in Q2 of next year
- (US) Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Hatzius: Fed may need to raise rates more than the market is expecting; Goldman still forecasting first Fed rate hike in Sept 2015
- (FR) EU Commission likely to seek more savings from France in 2016, 2017
- (CH) Upcoming Swiss Gold Referendum vote more skewed towards the No's

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (IT) Italy Econ Min Padoan speaks at OMFIF
- (IR) Iran nuclear talks restart in Vienna
- (PT) Portugal Sept Current Account Balance: No est v 0.6B prior
- 05:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to sell 12-month Bills
- 05:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to sell Floating Rate Bonds
- 05:30 (UK) DMO to sell 0.9B in 0.625% I/L 2042 Gilts
- 05:30 (IR) Ireland Debt Agency (NTMA) to sell 500M in 6-month Bills
- 05:50 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) to sell combined 1.3B in Inflation Linked (Oatei) 2023, 2027 and 2040 bonds
- 06:00 (RO) Romania to sell 2018 Bonds
- 06:00 (UK) Nov CBI Industrial Trends Total Orders: -5e v -6 prior; Selling Prices: -5e v -3 prior
- 06:00 (IL) Israel Sept Manufacturing Production M/M: No est v 3.4% prior
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (PL) Poland to sell Bonds
- 07:00 (RU) Russia Gold and Forex Reserve w/e Nov 14th: No est v $421.4B prior
- 07:00 (TR) Turkey Central Bank (CBRT) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to keep key rates unchanged; Expected to leave Benchmark Repurchase Rate unchanged at 8.25%; Expected to leave Overnight Lending Rate unchanged at 11.25% prior; Expected to leave Overnight Borrowing Rate unchanged at 7.50% prior
- 07:45 (US) Fed's Tarullo at clearing house conference
- 08:00 (ZA) South Africa Central Bank (SARB) Gov Kganyago press conference ahead of Interest Rate Decision
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Oct Sold Industrial Output M/M: 3.7%e v 16.5% prior; Y/Y: 1.4%e v 4.2% prior; Construction Output Y/Y: 2.2%e v 5.6% prior
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Oct PPI M/M: -0.2%e v +0.1% prior; Y/Y: -1.2%e v -1.6% prior
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Central Bank (NBP) Nov Minutes
- 08:00 (ZA) South Africa Central Bank (SARB) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Interest Rate unchanged at 5.75%
- 08:15 Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 08:30 (US) Oct CPI M/M: -0.1%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.6%e v 1.7% prior
- 08:30 (US) Oct CPI Ex Food and Energy M/M: 0.1%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.7%e v 1.7% prior

- 08:30 (US) Oct CPI Index NSA: 237.300e v 238.031 prior; CPI Core Index SA: 238.045e v 239.034 prior
- 08:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 284Ke v 290K prior; Continuing Claims: 2.37Me v 2.392M prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Sept Wholesale Trade Sales M/M: 0.8%e v 0.2% prior
- 08:30 (US) Weekly USDA Net Export Sales
- 09:00 (SW) Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) Dep Gov Floden
- 09:00 (BE) Belgium Nov Consumer Confidence Index: No est v -12 prior
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Sept Retail Sales Y/Y: 3.2%e v 4.4% prior
- 09:30 (LX) ECB's Mersch (Luxembourg)
- 09:45 (US) Nov Preliminary Markit US Manufacturing PMI: 56.3e v 55.9 prior
- 10:00 (US) Nov Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook: 18.5e v 20.7 prior
- 10:00 (US) Oct Existing Home Sales: 5.15Me v 5.17M prior
- 10:00 (US) Oct Leading Index: 0.6%e v 0.8% prior
- 10:00 (EU) Euro Zone Nov Advance Consumer Confidence: -10.7e v -11.1 prior

- 10:30 (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories
- 10:30 (DE) ECB's Lautenschaeger with EU's van Rompuy in Brussels
- 11:00 (US) Treasury 2-year, 5-year and 7-year refunding announcement (also 2-year FRN)
- 12:00 (CH) SNB's Zurbrugg speaks in Geneva
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $13B in 10-Year TIPS Reopening
- 13:30 (US) Feds Mester on forward guidance in London
- 15:00 (US) API Monthly Statistical Report
- 19:20 (AU) RBA's Heath speech at Mining Industry Conference
- 20:00 (US) President Obama speech on immigration
- 20:30 (US) Fed's Williams speaks at Bank of Korea event
- (AR) Argentina Nov Consumer Confidence Index: No est v 43.94 prior
- (MX) Mexico Banamex Survey of Economists
- (UK) House of Commons By-Election in Rochester & Strood



 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
US/JP- Holiday
All Day flash PMIs
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


John M. Bland, MBA
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