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Thursday August 25, 2005 - 11:44:26 GMT
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange -

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Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition

Key Points
• USD under pressure overnight...

• Germany’s Ifo survey disappoints, sliding on disappointment over the current economic climate.

• Japan’s top business lobby to throw its weight behind Koizumi’s campaign.

Market Outlook

0 The EUR-USD pushed up to 1.2320 in early European trading, after the softer than expected durable orders report hit the USD on Wednesday. The USD is consolidating now, despite a softer than expected Ifo reading. Risk is that the USD correction reasserts for another look at 1.2350, then the 1.25 zone. A break there would suggest that the correction higher has further to extend for a target to 1.2650. The 1.2260-50 area should revert to strong support now, with the key downside trigger noted at the 1.2125-1.21 area. Germany’s Ifo survey unexpectedly deteriorated in August, as firms became more pessimistic about their current situation. The business climate index fell to 94.6 in August, from 95.0 in July. The current conditions sub-index dipped to 93.8 (from 94.9 in July), though the expectations sub-index did pick up to 95.4 (from 95.1). Ifo President Sinn said that while softer, "the latest survey results do not rule out a moderate improvement in the coming months". Still, the decline in sentiment probably doesn’t bode well for the SPD’s Chancellor Schroeder, who looks increasingly likely to lose the election in September to the CDU/CSU led by Angela Merkel. The top German court confirmed on Thursday that the call for an early election was legal.

USD-JPY is under pressure, unable to recover 110, keeping Monday’s 109.40 low in sight, ahead of the 109 mid-August low.Losses through there would revive risk to 108.15. A recovery above 110 would leave a better tone on the day, with last Friday’s 110.85 high still key on the topside. EUR-JPY did extend up to 135.50 overnight but reversed lower from there, keeping 136 out of reach on the upswing and a retest of Monday’s 133.50 low looks likely later. There was more good news for PM Koizumi overnight, with wires reporting that Japan’s top business lobby group Nippon Keidanren will back his party. The group has supported the LDP in past elections, but the step of issuing a public endorsement would be unusual. Wires report that the group will declare its support next Tuesday, when election campaigning officially commences.

US durable goods orders data came in softer than expected on Wednesday, down 4.9% in July (consensus -1.5%). Extransport orders fell -3.2% (-0.8%). Non-defence capital goods, ex-aircraft fell 3.7%, the biggest drop since last October. Bear in mind that economists had been looking for a pullback after a string of strong reports, albeit not this sharp a pullback.... Elsewhere on Wednesday, the Fed’s Moskow was speaking though he was largely ignored by the market. He noted that high oil prices are a risk to core inflation and that the jobless mrate of 5% seen in June and July "is about as low as the unemployment rate can go on a sustained basis" suggesting that the Fed should “continue to reduce accommodation and return to a neutral federal funds rate".

Sweden - Deputy Governor Lars Nyberg warned in his speech that household debt is rising quickly, and that there is risk of some people borrowing too much, an issue of "central importance" to monetary policy. The speech came only a day after the Riksbank held rates at 1.5% and said there is no rush to raise them. The central bank has repeatedly warned of the risks of debt increasing to unmanageable levels for some households.

Day Ahead
US – initial claims and the help wanted index are the only data of note today and this week’s initial claims data come too late to be useful in making deductions about next week’s August payrolls report.

Data/event EDT Consensus*

SE Unemployment rate (Jul) 07.00 +7.1% last
US Initial claims (w/e Aug 20) 08.30 315k
US Continuing claims (w/e Aug 13) 08.30 2575k
US Help wanted index 10:00 38

Latest data Actual Consensus*
NZ Trade balance (Jul) 5.4bn 5.16bn last
JP Trade balance (Jul) 873.6bn 756.7bn
DE IFO index (Aug) 94.6 95.3
SE Trade balance (Aug) 13.4bn 18.9bn last
SE Riksbank deputy gov. Nyberg
GB BBA mortgage lending (Jul) y/y fin’l -17% -17% last
* Consensus unless stated

2005, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.40 EDT Monday May 31 2005


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