Tuesday November 25, 2014 - 03:45:11 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 25-Nov-2014 -0346 GMT
Dow (17,817.90, +0.04%) traded in one of its flattest range days in quite a long time. The next target on the upside remains at 17,950 and 18,300. However, these low trading ranges ever since we crossed to new highs 3rd November, is a cause for concern.
As expected, Nikkei (17,424.13, +0.38%) tested its 17,500 highs early morning. A break above these levels would take Nikkei to 17,700.
Shanghai (2,548.13, +0.60%) is very bullish as it continues its run after good base formation in long term charts; we expect it to be positively biased. In short term the rally post the rate-cut is sustaining and we should expect newer highs. Our targets for immediate term remain at 2,556 and 2,600.
Dax (9,785.54, +0.54%) is moving steadily up and now close to its resistance of 9,900. Break above 9,900 and 10,000 would be highly bullish for Dax.
Nifty (8,530.15, +0.62%) showed another strong closing. BSE Sensex achieved our target of 28,548 (day's high, 28,542). We advise caution at these levels. Though, we are likely to see good gains in indices in long term, in short to medium term we could see a good enough correction from these levels.
Brent (79.61) failed to hold itself above 81 levels, might get into consolidation in the range of 79-81 amid OPEC uncertainty. Street consensus, a big amount of supply cut is unlikely, but investors are requested to be watchful till it is trading below 81 levels. Nymex WTI (75.76) found tough resistance in the zone of 77.80-78 levels; extended “spinning top” (previous Friday) followed by another bearish candle suggests it can retest 74-75 in coming sessions.
Gold (1199.80) trades flat in mid Asian trading hours. It recovered from 1175 levels towards 1210 after a failed attempt to stabilize above 1200 levels, can retest 1230 levels (downward trend line resistance) if Dollar Index shows weakness. This bounce back is limited and just a counter wave against the broader bearish trend. 16.80 is the pivot resistance for Silver (16.56). Consolidation would continue in the price zone of 15.80-16.80 within the primary down trend initiated from July-14.
Copper (3.0055) bulls failed to capitalise on China's rate cut. It is not able to move through down trending channel resistance, can retest 3.00 levels soon.
Euro (1.2425) has showed a weak bounce being resisted at 1.2450 the area trendlines channels. Expect newer lows as long as it trades below 1.2450. The first target on the drop is 1.2250.
Like Euro, Pound-Dollar's (1.5684) bounce was been very weak and subdued. Expect a break below 1.560 to newer lows. The short term resistances are at 1.5720 and 1.5740.
Dollar-Yen (118.07) moved up to test its highs of 118.96 but failed to make new highs. It is now getting support from its pivotal trendline; a break below this trendline (level 117.90) could take the prices to 117 levels.
Dollar-Rupee (61.9350) bounced from 61.65, in line with our forecasts. We now expect another rise to 62.10-62.10 in next couple of days.
Aussie-Dollar (0.8598) has given up most of its post-PBOC rate cut gains. Uncertainties of the trend are higher with RBA wanting a stronger Aussie, against many expectations.
Overall the US Treasury yields are up while the yields in Europe and Japan remain down.
The 10Yr GOI (8.1623%) remained almost stable yesterday above support near 8.15%. We may expect a bounce from 8.15% towards 8.20-8.25% in the near term else a break below 8.15% could lead to a fall towards 8%.
German Yields are headed downwards and may continue to fall in the mid-term. The 30-5Yr GermanBund differential (1.5425%) is near support at 1.54% and may bounce a bit from here towards 1.60% in the mid-term as no immediate support is seen on the 30Yr yield chart
Japan 30Yr yield (1.428%) is falling steeply and may extend sharply upto levels of 1.35-1.30% in the coming weeks. The 10Yr (0.455%) and the 5Yr (0.1125%) are near crucial levels and may maintain the downtrend for now.
US yields are almost stable. The 10Yr (2.30%) may remain in the 2.20-40% for a couple of weeks as said earlier. Curve flattening is in the formation.
13:30 GMT or 19:00 IST US GDP
...Expected 3.30 % ...Previous 3.50 %
14:00 GMT or 19:30 IST US Case Schiller
...Expected 4.70 % ...Previous 5.57 %
15:00 GMT or 20:30 IST US Cons Conf
...Expected 95.9 ...Previous 94.50
GER IFO Business Climate
...Expected 103.4 ...Previous 103.20 ...Actual 104.70
GER IFO Business Situations
...Expected 108.20 ...Previous 108.40 ...Actual 110.00
GER IFO Business Expectations
...Expected 98.5 ...Previous 98.30 ...Actual 99.70
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