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Tuesday November 25, 2014 - 16:52:53 GMT
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| | Email US Market Update: US Q3 GDP Sugar High Wore Off Fast

Tue, 25 Nov 2014 11:40 AM EST

***Economic Data***
- (US) ICSC Chain Store Sales w/e Nov 21st: w/w: +2.2%; y/y: +1.7%
- (HU) Hungary Central Bank (NBH) left its Base Rate Decision unchanged at 2.10% (4th straight pause in easing cycle)
- (US) Q3 Preliminary GDP Annualized Q/Q: 3.9% v 3.3%e; Personal Consumption: 2.2% v 1.9%e
- (US) Q3 Preliminary GDP Price Index: 1.4% v 1.3%e; Core PCE Q/Q: 1.4% v 1.4%e
- (CA) Canada Sept Retail Sales M/M: 0.8% v 0.5%e; Retail Sales Ex Auto M/M: 0.0% v +0.3%e
- (US) Redbook Retail Sales w/e Nov 21st: +4.2% y/y, Nov MTD: -0.8% m/m; ; Nov MTD: +4.0% y/y
- (US) Sept FHFA House Price Index M/M: 0.0% v 0.4%e; Q/Q: % v 1.0%e
- (US) Sept S&P/ CaseShiller 20 City M/M: 0.34% v +0.30%e; Y/Y: 4.90% v 4.60%e; House Price index: 173.72 v 173.28e
- (US) Nov Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index: 4 v 16e
- (US) Nov Consumer Confidence Index: 88.7 v 96.0e
- (MX) Mexico Q3 Current Account Balance: -$2.7B v -$6.6Be

The very good third quarter US GDP numbers gave markets a real sugar rush this morning, putting US futures in the black and sending European shares out to their highs. The rush did not last and the S&P500 is in the red at its lows and Europe has given up some or all of their gains. Tellingly, the UST 10-year yield has hardly budged from 2.298%. As of writing, the DJIA is flat, the S&P500 has declined 0.19% and the Nasdaq is off 0.10%

The rate of economic growth in the US in the third quarter was revised higher in the second GDP reading this morning, to +3.9% from +3.5% in the first reading, well ahead of the +3.3% expected. The economy has grown at a 3.5% quarterly rate for four out of the last five quarters, although many observers suggest this pace of growth is not likely sustainable. Spending on investment in housing and by business grew strongly over the advance reading.

Other US economic data out this morning was less reassuring. The surprise dip in November consumer confidence showed Americans to be slightly less optimistic about both current and upcoming conditions. The S&P/Case-Shiller Home prices practically unchanged in September, as annual growth cooled to the slowest y/y pace in two years. The Richmond Fed survey collapsed to 4 from 20 prior, contrasting sharply with last week's blowout November Philly Fed survey.

All eyes are on Vienna this morning, where oil ministers from Saudi Arabia, Russia, Mexico and Venezuela met for talks ahead of the official OPEC meeting on November 27th. The four nations reportedly agreed to meet regularly to "monitor" oil prices but did not agree to a collective production cut. Interestingly, Rosneft CEO Sechin said that even oil prices falling below $60/bbl would not force Russia to cut production. After running up as high as $76.60 before the meeting, WTI crude futures dropped back below $74 when it became clear the nations would not agree to cut.

Shares of Tiffany were up as much as 5% this morning despite the firm missing top- and bottom-line expectations. There were no big changes to the firm's guidance, but its worldwide comps stayed positive and US comps were up a healthy 11%. Footwear name DSW shot up 7% on a solid third-quarter earnings report and a new stock buyback. Both TIF and DSW are well off their highs.

***Looking Ahead***
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $35B in 5-Year Notes
- 14:00 (AR) Argentina Oct Trade Balance: $0.5Be v $0.4B prior
- 16:00 (KR) South Korea Nov Consumer Confidence: No est v 105 prior
- 16:30 (US) Weekly API Crude Oil Inventories


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A 01:30 AU- Employment
AA 09:30 GB- Retail Sales
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