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Wednesday November 26, 2014 - 12:32:39 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: OPEC members stressing unity and cooperation ahead of Thursday bi-annual meeting


Wed, 26 Nov 2014 5:21 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- OPEC members stressing unity and cooperation ahead of Thursday bi-annual meeting
- Growth-friendly signals from Europe and Asia; more ECB members contemplating QE at some future point; EU's Juncker unveils his investment plan
- Busy US data calendar ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday

**Selected Key Economic Data in Session***
- (SG) Singapore Oct Industrial Production misses; M/M: 2.6% v 3.2%e; Y/Y: 0.2% v 0.6%e
- (DE) Germany Oct Import Price Index (higher than expectations); M/M: -0.3% v -0.5%e; Y/Y: -1.2% v -1.5%e
- (FR) France Nov Consumer Confidence (beats): 87 v 86e
- (SE) Sweden Nov Confidence data mixed; Consumer Confidence: 96.8 v 100.0e; Manufacturing Confidence: 108.0 v 105.2e
- (SE) Sweden Oct Trade Balance (SEK): -0.2B v +2.4Be
- (IT) Italy Nov Consumer Confidence Index (missed): 100.2 v 101.6e
- (UK) Q3 Preliminary GDP (2nd reading) Inline; Q;/Q: 0.7% v 0.7%e; Y/Y: 3.0% v 3.0%e


Fixed Income:
- (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold 6.0B vs. 6.0B indicated in 6-Month Bills; Avg Yield: 0.272% v 0.379% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.72x v 1.73x prior

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
**Equities**
Indices [Stoxx50 +0.3%,
FTSE 100 +0.3% at 6,751, DAX +0.6% at 9,926, CAC-40 +0.4% at 4,387, IBEX-35 flat 10,700, FTSE MIB +0.2% at 20,051, SMI +0.2% at 9,063, S&P 500 Futures +0.1% at 2,071]

- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: Equity markets open higher amid gains in China and dovish comments from ECB's Constancio, DAX hits highest level since early July and gains for 10th straight session, Equity gains capped amid gains in core government bonds, Seadrill suspends dividend, Cautious outlook and management change weighs on travel firm Thomas Cook, Saudi Arabian equities trade sharply lower ahead of Thursday's OPEC decision

By Sectors
- Consumer Discretionary
[E-commerce firm Zalando ZAL.DE +7% (upbeat outlook); Thomas Cook TCG.UK -19% (cautious outlook, management change), Amadeus AMS.ES -2% (share placement)]
- Basic Resources/Materials [Antofagasta ANTO.UK +1.5% (broker commentary)]
- Energy [Seadrill SDRL.NO -10% (suspended dividend)]
- Stoxx50 sectors [Utilities +2%, Basic Materials +0.4%, Telecom +0.3%, Technology +0.3%, Financials +0.1%, Industrials flat, Consumer Non-Cyclical flat; Energy -0.6%, Consumer Cyclical -0.3%]

***Speakers***
- ECB's Constancio (Portugal): Could consider sovereign bond buys in Q1.
Sovereign bond purchases would be needed if balance sheet expansion slowed; would be purely monetary policy decision.
- BoE's Haldane: Markets don't see rate hikes until end of 2015*; Reiterated rate hikes would be gradual and normalize lower
- EU President Juncker: European economy needed a 'kick-start' and required an increase in investment. The 315B investment fund was not an upper limit as it could increase if the fund worked. Fund would be operational by June 2015. Input of investment fund would not count towards deficit; member States were duty bound to do what they could to stimulate growth in the EMU
- Bank of Spain (BOS) monthly bulletin: Indicators show current economic expansion to extend into Q4
- Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) AF Jochnick reiterated view that domestic economy was strong but inflation was too low and reiterated view to hit inflation target by mid-2016. Should await results of rate cut to zero but reiterated that next step would be to push back the first planned rate hike. Says bond purchases (QE) would have a limited effect. Not considering currency floor in EUR/SEK nor is intervention being considered
- Russia Central Bank Gov Nabiullina: CPI to slow from Q2 2015; and could potential ease policy from H2 2015
- Poland Central Bank Gov Belka: Polish deflation showed there was more room to lower interest rates. Council was divided even with -0.6% annual deflation with rate cut opponents concerned about risks to deposits
- Poland Central Bank Chojna-Duch (dove): Recent domestic economic data suggests there is no need for concern
- Russia Central Bank Dep Gov Yudayeva: Sees 'dangerous' spike in inflation expectations and this must be stabilized
- Russia Financial Stability chief Moiseev stated that it had the luxury to borrow when yields were suitable. Did not plan aggressive borrowing policy at this time
- Russia Econ Min Ulyukayev reiterated view of no need to adjust budget due to recent oil price decline
- Russia Fin Min Siluanov stated that he saw oil prices between $80-90/barrel in the medium term and perhaps the long-term. Likely to miss 2015 revenue target of RUB500B with level of RUB currency and oil prices
- Brazil President Rousseff said to offer Jaoquim Levy autonomy as Finance Minister

OPEC Commentary in Session
- Saudi Oil Min Ali Al-Naimi: Saudis, the US and others should not cut output; Market will stabilize itself. Producers should let the market determine oil prices
- Iran Oil Min Zanganeh: Unity is a key factor for OPEC
- Angola Oil Min Da Vasconcelos: Expected OPEC to reach consensus decision; stopped short of calling for any OPEC production cut
- UAE OPEC Gov: OPEC targets oil market stability rather than price


***Currencies***
- Quiet FX market ahead of the US Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday. Price action will get a chance to exert some volatility with a front-loaded US economic schedule today.
- More ECB members mentioned the QE potential but EUR/USD steady at 1.2465 area and a big figure above the current 2014 lows in the pair
- USD/JPY stayed below the 118 handle in the session. Former Japan MoF Official Sakakibara (Mr. Yen) believed that the current yen weakness phase was nearing an end and would unlikely to match its low of 124.14 before financial crisis in 2007.

**Political/In the Papers:
-OPEC members said to be nearing a compromise on supply cuts, would likely call for stronger adherence by members to their previously agreed upon quotas - press; Stronger adherence to the 30M bpd supply targets could imply a cut of approx 300K bpd

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (GR) Greece and Troika official to meet in Paris
- 05:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) holds Buy-Back Auctions
- 05:30 (DE) Germany to sell 4.0B in 1% 2024 Bund
- 05:30 (PT) Portugal Debt Agency (IGCP) announces bond exchange offer
- 06:00 (UK) Nov CBI Industrial Reported Sales: 28e v 31 prior
- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Oct Property Prices M/M: No est v 1.8% prior; Y/Y: No est v 15.0% prior
- 06:30 (CL) Chile Central Bank's Traders Survey
- 07:00 (UK) Weekly PM Cameron question time in House of Commons
- 07:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Nov 21st: No est v +4.9% prior
- 07:00 (RU) Russia to sell combined RUB10B in 2016 and 2019 OFZ bonds
- 07:30 (BR) Brazil Oct Total Outstanding Loans (BRL): No est v 2.901T prior;
M/M: No est v 1.3% prior; Private Banks Lending (BRL): No est v 1.359T prior; Personal Loan Default Rate: No est v 6.6% prior
- 08:00 (EU) EU Foreign Min Mogherini (Italy) in EU Parliament
- 08:15 (US) Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 08:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 288Ke v 291K prior; Continuing Claims: 2.35Me v 2.330M prior
- 08:30 (US) Oct Durable Goods Orders: -0.6%e v -1.1% prior (revised from -1.3%); Durables Ex Transportation: +0.5%e v -0.1% prior
(revised from -0.2%); Capital Goods Shipments (Non-defense/ex-aircraft): +1.0%e v +0.3% prior (revised from -0.2%); Capital Goods Orders (Non-defense/ex-aircraft): +0.5%e v -1.6% prior (revised from -1.7%); Durables Ex-Defense: No est v -1.5% prior
- 08:30 (US) Oct Personal Income: 0.4%e v 0.2% prior; Personal Spending: +0.3%e v -0.2% prior
- 08:30 (US) Oct PCE Deflator M/M: 0.0%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.4%e v 1.4% prior
- 08:30 (US) Oct PCE Core M/M: 0.2%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.5%e v 1.5% prior

- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Oct Preliminary Trade Balance: -$0.8Be v +$0.6B prior
- 09:30 (BR) Brazil weekly Currency Flows
- 09:45 (US) Nov Chicago Purchasing Manager: 63.0e v 66.2 prior
- 09:55 (US) Nov Final University of Michigan Confidence: 90.0e v 89.4 prelim

- 10:00 (US) Oct Pending Home Sales M/M: 0.5%e v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 2.5%e v 1.0% prior
- 10:00 (US) Oct New Home Sales: 470Ke v 467K prior
- 10:30 (US) Weekly DOE Crude Oil Inventories
- 11:00 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel speaks at German Insurance Industry Meeting
- 12:00 (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories
- 12:00 (CA) Canada to sell 5-Year Bonds
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell 7-Year Notes
- 16:45 (NZ) New Zealand Oct Trade Balance (NZD): -$0.6Be v -$1.4B prior; Exports: N$3.9Be v N$3.6B prior; Imports: N$4.6Be v N$5.0B prior



 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
US/JP- Holiday
All Day flash PMIs
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


John M. Bland, MBA
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