User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Thursday August 25, 2005 - 15:59:14 GMT
GCI Financial - www.gcitrading.com

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (25 August 2005)



The euro was flat vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.2320 level and was supported around the $1.2255 level. The pair briefly tested offers above the 50% retracement level of the move from $1.2485 to $1.2125 but soon came off below the figure. The common currency came off after the release of the August German Ifo business climate index that fell to 94.6 from 95.0 in July, below expectations. Similarly, the August business assessment index receded to 93.8 from 94.9 in July, below forecasts, while the business expectations index rallied to 95.4 from 95.1. Many traders anticipated an improvement in the Ifo index given the improvement in this week’s German ZEW index. Other data released in Germany today saw preliminary August consumer prices climb 0.1% m/m and 1.9% y/y, consistent with expectations. On a harmonized basis, HICP was up 0.1% m/m and 1.8% y/y. Final August inflation data are scheduled for release in mid-September. In other eurozone news, Bank of Italy Governor Fazio is embroiled in a telephone wiretap scandal involving the sale of Banca Antonveneta SpA. Bank of Italy employees are said to be ready to strike if Fazio does not step down as Governor. There are unlikely to be any implications for European Central Bank other than the taint of a scandal. In U.S. news, weekly initial jobless claims were released today and they fell 4,000 to 315,000 while continuing jobless claims printed at 2.57 million. Chicago Fed President Moskow was hawkish in his remarks yesterday saying the threat of rising energy prices on core inflation is now higher than it was one year ago. Fed funds futures are currently pricing in around a 50% chance the Federal Open Market Committee will tighten policy by 50bps to 4.00% by the end of the year, and a 50% chance the target rate will be +75bps higher to 4.25%. Moskow reported “Because the economy is running nearer to potential, unfavorable cost developments are more likely to pass through to core inflation. And core inflation is now at the upper end of the range that I feel is consistent with price stability. If we indeed start to see a string of higher inflation numbers, people may begin to expect permanently higher inflation. Such expectations could become self-fulfilling if they become built into the behavior of households and businesses. And this would have adverse effects on longer term economic performance. If this occurred, the Fed would need to respond accordingly in order to restore price stability. Financial market data and surveys suggest that the private sector's long-run inflation expectations remain stable.” Fed Chairman Greenspan will speak at Friday’s annual Fed conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming and could very likely talk about the sizable current account deficit, low national savings rate, etc. Dealers are also monitoring the impact of yesterday’s downgrade of Ford’s and General Motors’s debt to junk states. Together, they are among the largest issuers of U.S. corporate debt with an aggregate total of more than US$ 400 billion outstanding. Foreign investors purchased a record net US$ 52 billion of U.S. corporate bonds in June, an appreciable percentage of the US$ 71.2 billion of net capital inflows into the U.S. Without these inflows, the U.S. trade deficit could not be financed and the U.S. dollar would likely depreciate. Euro offers are cited around the $1.2345/ 95 levels.

¥/ CNY

The yen moved higher vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the ¥109.75 level after testing offers around the ¥110.40/ 45 level. Stops were reached below the ¥110.10 level, representing the 50% retracement of the move from ¥106.50 to ¥113.70 level. Data released in Japan today saw the July trade surplus decline 22.6% y/y in July to ¥873.57 billion, primarily on account of inflated oil prices. Exports and imports jumped 4.3% and 11.6%, respectively. Notably, Japan’s trade surplus with the rest of Asia lessened 9.8% to ¥676.2 billion and this may represent the impact of exported relatively cheap Chinese goods in the region. Crude oil imports escalated 48.5% y/y and drove up overall imports by 5.9%. Other data released overnight saw domestic shipments of consumer electronic products recede 1.8% y/y in July to ¥213.4 billion, down from June’s 1.7% climb and the first fall in twenty months. Traders continue to monitor developments in the oil market as NYMEX futures have surged to a record US$ 68, the highest level since crude futures started trading in 1983. MoF vice finance minister Hosokawa today indicated he is “concerned (about the impact of oil) on consumer spending, corporate earnings, (and) its impact on the global economy.” Japan, like most Asian countries, is a net importer of oil and the yen has a tendency to depreciate when energy prices appreciate. The Nikkei 225 stock index lost 0.78% to close at ¥12,405.16. Dollar bids are cited around the ¥109.25/ ¥108.90 levels. The euro depreciated vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested bids around the ¥134.80 level and was capped around the ¥135.55 level. The British pound depreciated vis-à-vis the yen as sterling tested bids around the ¥197.75 level while the Swiss franc was little-changed vis-à-vis the yen and was capped around the ¥87.45 level. The Chinese yuan appreciated marginally vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback closed at CNY 8.1002, down from 8.1005 yesterday. On the political front, Chinese President Hu Jintao – who will visit the U.S. in September – will likely execute various trade and economic agreements between the U.S. and China next month.



The British pound scored marginal gains vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested offers around the US$ 1.8080 level and was supported around the $1.7975 level. Technically, today’s high in cable was right at the 76.4% retracement of the move from $1.8330 to $1.7275. Data released in the U.K. today saw business investment rise 0.5% q/q in Q2 at £28.26 billion, up 2.2% y/y. Also, BBA mortgage lending data were released and they saw a decline last month to £3.7 billion from June’s £4.7 billion level. Last month’s level represented the lowest figure since December 2001. Similarly, consumer credit landing was off 4.0% m/m in July. Cable offers are cited around the $1.8105/ 10 level. The euro was flat vis-à-vis the British pound as the single currency tested bids around the £0.6810 level and was capped around the £0.6825 level.

CHF

The Swiss franc gained ground vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the CHF 1.2560 level and was capped around the CHF 1.2655 level. Technically, today’s low was just above the 23.6% retracement of the move from CHF 1.3055 to CHF 1.2430. Dollar bids are cited around the CHF 1.2555/ 05 levels. The euro weakened vis-à-vis the Swiss franc as the single currency tested bids around the CHF 1.5465 level while the British pound fell sharply and tested bids around the CHF 2.2645 level.

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!

The Amazing Trader includes:
  • Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
  • Live trading strategy sessions.
  • Market Updates with Trading Tools.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader


Trading Ideas for 18 October 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales

Forex Trading Outlook


Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




TRADER ADVOCACY ARTICLES

Trader's Advocate Articles..

pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105