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Monday December 1, 2014 - 12:23:20 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Moody's cuts Japan sovereign rating; precious metals recover from steep losses overnight while oil lingers at 5-year lows


Mon, 01 Dec 2014 5:16 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- Moody's cuts Japan sovereign rating a notch (from Aa3 to A1) following the delay in sales tax hike
- Concerns about the global growth outlook linger following PMI data and holiday sales
- China PMI data at multi-month lows; Nov Final HSBC Manufacturing PMI hits 6-Month low (50.0 v 50.0e); Nov Manufacturing PMI (official reading) hits a 8-month low (50.3 v 50.5e)
- European Major PMI Manufacturing data generally mixed (Germany and EMU miss while UK and France beats)
- US Black Friday sales: Online sales over the Thanksgiving holiday weekend showed impressive growth, but overall combined US retail sales fell y/y

**Economic Data***
- (JP) Japan Nov Vehicle Sales Y/Y: -13.5 v -9.1% prior (5th straight month of decline)
- (IN) India Nov Manufacturing PMI: 53.3 v 51.6 prior (13th month of expansion and highest since Feb 2013)
- (RU) Russia Nov Manufacturing PMI: 51.7 v 50.0e
- (ES) Spain Nov Manufacturing PMI beats: 54.7 v 52.1e (12th month of expansion and highest since June 2007)
- (IT) Italy Nov Manufacturing PMI misses: 49.0 v 49.4e (2nd straight month of contraction and matches lowest since May 2013)
- (FR) France Nov Final Manufacturing PMI beats 48.4 v 47.6e; confirmed 7th straight month of contraction
- (DE) Germany Nov Final Manufacturing PMI misses; 49.5 v 50.0e (moved back into contraction territory and lowest since Jun 2013
- (EU) Euro Zone Nov Final Manufacturing PMI misses: 50.1 v 50.4e (confirms 17th straight month of growth but lowest since Jun 2013))
- (GR) Greece Nov Manufacturing PMI: 49.1 v 48.8 prior (third straight month of contraction)
- (ZA) South Africa Nov Kagiso Manufacturing PMI: 53.3 v 51.8e
- (IT) Italy Q3 Final GDP data in lne; Q/Q: -0.1% v -0.1%e (confirms 13th quarter of contraction); Y/Y: -0.5% v -0.4%e
- (UK) Oct Net Consumer Credit: 1.1B v 1.0Be; Net Lending: 1.5B v 1.8Be
- (UK) Oct Mortgage Approval (slight beat): 59.4K v 59.0Ke
- (UK) Oct M4 Money Supply M/M: -0.1% v -0.7% prior; Y/Y: -2.6% v -2.5% prior; M4 Ex IOFCs 3M Annualized: 2.5% v 3.7%e
- (UK) UK Nov PMI Manufacturing beats: 53.5 v 53.0e; (21st month expansion and highest since July)

Fixed Income:
- None seen

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
**Equities**
Indices [Stoxx50 -0.5%
, FTSE 100 -0.8% at 6,672, DAX -0.3% at 9,956, CAC-40 -0.5% at 4,367, IBEX-35 -0.5% at 10,721, FTSE MIB -1.1% at 19,787, SMI -0.1% at 9,143, S&P 500 Futures -0.4% at 2,057]

- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: Equity markets are all solidly in the red on overall weak PMI data out of Europe today and follow-on selling from the OPEC decision on Thursday. Oil and Gas companies are leading the way lower (Tullow -6.8%). Materials stocks opened lower (Swiss 'No' vote on gold reserves, weak China PMI) but erased losses after Moody's cut Japan's sovereign rating. Airlines are mostly positive on the day on lower fuel prices (Lufthansa % being the exception on strike news). Manufacturing PMI data was mainly disappointing with Italy, Germany, and France contracting in November (Spain was the lone bright spot).

By Sector
- Industrials
[Balfour Beatty BBY.UK +4.8% (John Laing confirms bid), Kier KIE.UK -1.4% (Confirms discussions with Mouchel)
- Energy [Petroceltic PCI.UK -34% (Dragon Oil drops offer) DGO.UK -3%
- Healthcare [Glaxosmithkline GSK.UK +0.4% (to cut costs)
- Financials [Gagfah GFJ.DE +12.5% (receives offer from Deutsche Annington for 18/shr), ANN.DE -3.1%
- Materials [Amplats AMS.ZA -7% (cuts HEPS)
- Utilities [E.ON EOAN.DE +4.4% (To split in two)
- Telecom [Portugal Telecom PTC.PT -8% (Altice to acquire company) ATC.NL +5.1%
- Technology [Tecan TECN.CH -0.7% (lowers rev ests)

***Speakers***
- Moody's cut Japan's sovereign rating from Aa3 to A1 (one notch)
and maintained a stable outlook. Key driver for downgrade was heightened uncertainty over the achievability of fiscal deficit reduction target (**Reminder: On Nov 18th Japan PM Abe formally delays the 2nd phase of the planned sales tax hike by 18 months to April 2017)
- Russia Central Bank' 1st Dep Gov Yudaeva stated that she saw 2014 inflation exceeding 9% and Q1 2015 inflation around 10%
- Cyprus Central Bank Gov: 2014 recession seen shallower then initially forecasted; will return to growth in 2015
- Russia stated that ties with NATO were not past point of no return and prepared for cooperation in any format
- Russia to tender 5 oil fields in Q1 to help maintain production (largest tender in 2 years)

***Currencies***
- The USD/JPY briefly hit fresh 7-year highs at 119.14 immediately after Moody's cut Japan's sovereign rating from Aa3 to A1. However, the pair abruptly moved off the level to trade over 100pips lower before NY participants came in

- The EUR/USD was little changed ahead of the ECB Thursday meeting for in which dealers would look for guidance on potential stimulus measures (including outright QE).
- Swiss voters soundly reject Gold Referendum (as expected); SNB reiterated prepared to buy FX in unlimited quantities & take other measures if needed. The EUR/CHF cross stayed contained within recent ranges at 1.2025 area.
- Commodity and emerging market currencies continued to show weakness as oil and other commodities continued their descent. The RUB currency (Ruble) hit fresh record lows. However, precious metals reversed earlier slide and traded higher in Europe. Spot gold tested $1,184/oz and was $40 off earlier lows ($1,142.60) while spot silver tested $16.36/oz and over 42 off earlier lows ($14.12)

**Political/In the Papers:
- (CH) Swiss voters soundly reject Gold Referendum (as expected); SNB reiterated prepared to buy FX in unlimited quantities & take other measures if needed
- (FR) Former France President Sarkozy chosen as the leader of the conservative UMP party (opposition)
- Online sales over the Thanksgiving holiday weekend showed impressive growth, but overall combined US retail sales fell y/y

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)
- 05:30 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Weekly Economists Survey
- 06:00 (NL) Netherlands Debt Agency (DSTA) cancels Bill auction
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 US auto preview
- 07:00 (BR) Brazil Nov Manufacturing PMI: No est v 49.1 prior
- 07:00 (ZA) South Africa Nov Naamsa Vehicle Sales Y/Y: No est v 4.9% prior
- 08:00 (CZ) Czech Nov Budget Balance (CZK): No est v -34.4B prior (revised from -45.4B)
- 08:15 (US) Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 08:50 (FR) France to sell 6.2-7.4B in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month bills
- 09:30 (MX) Mexico Nov Manufacturing PMI: No est v 53.3 prior
- 09:30 (CA) Nov RBC Canadian Manufacturing PMI: No est v 55.3 prior
- 09:30 (EU) ECB announces weekly purchases under its covered bond program 3 (CBPP3)
- 09:35 (EU) ECB calls for bids in 7-day main Refi
- 09:45 (US) Nov Final Markit Manufacturing PMI: 55.0e v 54.7 prelim
- 10:00 (US) Nov ISM Manufacturing: 58.0e v 59.0 prior; ISM Prices Paid: 52.5e v 53.5 prior

- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Oct Total Remittances: $2.0Be v $2.0B prior
- 10:00 (PT) ECB's Costa (Portugal) speaks at Conference in Lisbon
- (RU) Russia Nov Sovereign Wealth Fund Balances: Reserve Fund: No est v $89.6B prior; Wellbeing Fund: No est v $81.7B prior
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell combined $50B in 3-Month and 6-month Bills
- 12:00 (BR) Brazil Nov Trade Balance: -$2.5Be v -$1.2B prior; Total Exports: $15.9Be v $18.3B prior; Total Imports: $18.6Be v $19.5B prior
- 12:00 (IT) Italy Nov Budget Balance: No est v -8.5B prior
- 12:00 (IT) Italy Nov New Car Registrations Y/Y: No est v 9.2% prior
- 13:00 (MX) Mexico Nov IMEF Manufacturing Index (Seasonally Adj): 54.1e v 54.8 prior; Non-Manufacturing Index SA: No est v 52.2 prior
- 12:15 (US) Fed's Dudley on economic outlook in NY
- 13:00 (US) Fed's Fischer in NY
- 18:00 (KR) South Korea Nov CPI M/M: No est v -0.3% prior; Y/Y: No est v 1.2% prior; CPI Core Y/Y: No est v 1.8% prior
- 22:30 (AU) RBA Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Cash Target Rate unchanged at 2.50%


 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
US/JP- Holiday
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13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


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