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RISK OFF: Equities Fall After Soft PMIs. Moody's Japan Downgrade

RISK OFF: Equities Fall After Soft PMIs. Moody's Japan Downgrade
December 2, 2014 .00:00:GMT
 TOP NEWS ITEMS:AU- GDP, RBA Decision, GB- Construction PMI, US- Construction Spending

Global-View Economic Chart Directory

1 December-- 17:00 GMT- Current Market Conditions
Markets remain  in a RISK OFF posture following the  release of a slew of final November PMI data. PMI data have been mostly negative so far with Eurozone readings remaining depressed and readings from China looking soft as well. U.K. manufacturing might have stabilized?  North American data were lackluster as well . Moody's downgraded Japanese sovereign debt ratings.


  • In forex, the USD is lower. The EUR is mostly weaker on its key crosses  Gold is higher on a "buy the fact" response to the as expected defeat of the Swiss gold referendum. Oil prices have rebounded.
  • In the Far East, equities ended mixed.  In Japan, JGB yields are higher following the Moody's downgrade.
  • Key European bourses are closing weaker. 10-yr bund and UK Gilt yields are mixed. European peripheral bond yields are higher.
  • The U.S 10-yr note yield is about steady on the day  U.S. equities are lower.

The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields.

Weekly Trading Planner Top Items (GMT):
    TUESDAY
    1:30 AU GDP broadest economic measure
    4:30 AU Australia Reserve Bank No rate change seen
    9:28 GB Construction PMI most timely economic reading
    15:00 US Construction Spend building measure
    WEDNESDAY
    8:50 FR SVC PMI final most timely economic reading
    8:55 DE SVC PMI final most timely economic reading
    8:58 EZ SVC PMI final most timely economic reading
    9:28 GB SVC PMI most timely economic reading
    13:15 US ADP Jobs Predictor of NFP
    13:30 US Productivity important metric
    14:45 US Markit SVC PMI most timely economic reading
    15:00 CA BOC Rates Rates seen steady
    15:00 US ISM SVC PMI most timely economic reading
    15:30 US EIA Crude top energy metric
    19:00 FRB Beige Book Fed economic analysis
    THURSDAY
    1:30 AU Retail Sales consumer spending
    1:30 AU Trade A$bln Export measure
    12:00 GB Bank of England Rates Seen Steady
    12:45 EZ Europe Cntl Bank Rates Seen Steady
    13:30 US Initial Claims timely jobs data
    15:00 CA Ivey PMI most timely economic reading
    FRIDAY
    10:00 EZ 3Q14 GDP broadest economic measure
    13:30 CA Trade
    13:30 CA Payrolls wide employment measure
    13:30 US Payrolls wide employment measure
    13:30 US Trade  Export measure
    15:00 US Factory Orders production

calendarBe sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.

FOREX CALENDAR
Time  Imp Country Title Cons Last
01/12/14 20:30 US COT Report n/a n/a
02/12/14 1:30 A AU GDP qq 0.70% 0.50%
02/12/14 1:30 A AU 1Q14 GDP yy 3.10% 3.10%
02/12/14 4:30 A AU Australia Reserve Bank 2.50% 2.50%
02/12/14 9:28 A GB Construction PMI 61 61.4
02/12/14 10:00 B EZ PPI mm -0.30% 0.20%
02/12/14 10:00 C EZ PPI yy -1.30% -1.40%
02/12/14 15:00 A US Construction Spend 0.60% -0.40%
02/12/14 21:30 C US API Energy n/a n/a
03/12/14 0:00 A WEDNESDAY
03/12/14 8:50 A FR SVC PMI final 48.8 48.8
03/12/14 8:55 A DE SVC PMI final 52.1 51.3
03/12/14 8:58 A EZ SVC PMI final 56.2 56.2
03/12/14 9:28 A GB SVC PMI 56.5 56.2
03/12/14 10:00 B EZ Retail Sls mm 0.50% -1.30%
03/12/14 10:00 B EZ Retail Sls yy 1.40% 0.60%
03/12/14 12:00 C US WK Mortgage Stats n/a n/a
03/12/14 13:15 A US ADP Jobs 224 230
03/12/14 13:30 A US Productivity 2.20% 2.00%
03/12/14 14:45 A US Markit SVC PMI 56.5 56.3
03/12/14 15:00 A CA BOC Rates 1.00% 1.00%
03/12/14 15:00 A US ISM SVC PMI 57.5 57.1
03/12/14 15:30 A US EIA Crude mn n/a 1.95
03/12/14 15:30 A US EIA Distillate mn n/a 1.8
03/12/14 15:30 B US EIA Gasoline mn n/a -1.65
03/12/14 15:30 B US EIA Cap Util n/a 91.50%
03/12/14 19:00 A FRB Beige Book n/a n/a
04/12/14 0:00 A THURSDAY
04/12/14 1:30 A AU Retail Sales n/a 1.20%
04/12/14 1:30 A AU Trade A$bln n/a -2.261
04/12/14 8:00 B DE Factory Ord mm 0.50% 0.80%
04/12/14 8:00 B DE Factory Ord yy 0.00% -1.00%
04/12/14 12:00 A GB Bank of England 0.50% 0.50%
04/12/14 12:00 A GB QE GBP bn 375 375
04/12/14 12:45 A EZ Europe Cntl Bank 0.05% 0.05%
04/12/14 13:30 A EZ ECB Webcast n/a n/a
04/12/14 13:30 A US Cont Claims n/a 2.316
04/12/14 13:30 A US Initial Claims 297 313
04/12/14 15:00 A CA Ivey PMI 53.2 51.2
04/12/14 15:30 C US Nat Gas bcf n/a -162


 

See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and  comments from experienced traders to events as they happen.



John M. BlandJohn M. Bland is a founding partner of Global-View.com. He was a FX consultant to major corporations. He has also been a institutional forex trader, FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service and an author. John has an MBA in Finance and a BA in Economics from the University of California, Berkeley.
Copyright 2014, GlobalViewpoint, Inc All rights reserved

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
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All Day flash PMIs
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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