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Tuesday December 2, 2014 - 12:02:22 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: Global disinflation theme continues

Tue, 02 Dec 2014 5:10 AM EST

- Continued focus on disinflation theme highlights that European central banks, including the ECB, Riksbank and SNB, are even more challenged by falling inflation rates compared to Asian central banks

- RBA left rates unchanged at 2.5% (as expected), reiterates most prudent course is for a period of rate stability; AUD currency still above most estimates of fundamental value
- India RBI left key rate unchanged (as expected) and noted that a change in policy stance was likely early 2015
- Recent data suggest that reforms in Spain having a positive effect; Net unemployment falls for 1st time in four months (-14.7K vs. +20.0Ke)

**Economic Data***
- (IN) India Central Bank (RBI) left its Key Rates Unchanged (as expected)
- (ES) Spain Nov Net Unemployment better-than expected; M/M: -14.7K v +20Ke
- (UK) Nov Construction PMI missed; 59.4 v 61.0e; 19th month of expansion but lowest since Oct 2013
- (EU) Euro Zone Oct PPI M/M: -0.4% v -0.3%e; Y/Y: -1.3% v -1.3%e

Fixed Income:
- None seen

Indices [Stoxx50 +0.3%
, FTSE 100 +1% at 6,731, DAX flat at 9,971, CAC-40 +0.5% at 4,400, IBEX-35 +0.2% at 10,699, FTSE MIB +0.7% at 19,827, SMI +0.3% at 9,181, S&P 500 Futures +0.3% at 2,056]

- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: Equity markets open higher following the declines seen on Monday as miners and energy shares rebound with Thursday's ECB meeting in focus, DAX trades above 10,000 for first time since early July, Aviva confirms offer for Friends Life, Profit warning weighs on SMA Solar

By Sector
- Energy
[SMA Solar S92.DE -17% (profit warning), Saipem SPM.IT -7% (canceling of South Stream project)]
- Consumer Discretionary [Jungheinrich JUN3.DE +2% (MDAX addition) ]
- Industrials [Neopost NEO.FR -15% (cautious outlook)]
- Stoxx50 Sectors [Energy +2%, Basic Materials +1.1%, Technology +1%, Financials +0.8%, Industrials +0.6%, Consumer Cyclical +0.5%, Consumer Non-Cyclical +0.5%, Telecom +0.3% ; Utilities -0.1%]

- Sweden PM Loefven
stated that he did not rule out new election if budget talks failed
- Russia Economy Min cut its 2015 GDP outlook from +1.2% to -0.8% and raised the amount of capital outflows for both 2014 and 2015 to $125B and $90B respectively
- RBI Gov Rajan post rate decision press conference noted that a change in policy stance was likely in early 2015. He saw a disinflationary process with developments in global oil markets being positive for India. The next rate move may be towards accommodation but no predetermined course of action (says it would be data driven to make sure 2016 inflation target is achieved)
- Japan labor union to seek base pay increase of at least 2%
- UAE Energy Min: Oil may recover on global economy in 2015

- Dealers continued to focus on the disinflation theme noting that the upcoming ECB meeting on Thursday remained in focus. European central banks, including the ECB, Riksbank and SNB, are even more challenged by falling inflation rates compared to Asian central banks (overnight saw South Korea CPI hits a 9-month low). The recent sharp fall in commodity prices only compounded the situation. Analyst believing that Weak ECB staff projections and un-anchoring of inflation expectations left the door open for Dec QE (although ECB likely had a few steps to take before 'going nuclear' (aka sovereign bond purchases).

**Political/In the Papers:
- (UR) Ukraine Govt said to have reached a ceasefire deal with rebels around Donetsk
- IMF's Lagarde: Lower oil price overall positive for global economy; Eurozone govts need to use all available tools to help economy

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (RO) Romania Nov International Reserves: No est v $35.3B prior
- (US Nov Total Vehicle Sales: 16.58Me v 16.35M prior; Domestic Vehicle Sales: 13.30Me v 13.12M prior
- 05:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to sell 3-month bills
- 05:30 (BE) Belgium Debt Agency to sell combined 1.5-1.9B in 3-Month and 6-Month Bills
- 05:30 (UK) DMO to sell 3.5B in 2% 2020 Gilts

- 06:00 (BR) Brazil Oct Industrial Production M/M: +0.2%e v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: -3.0%e v -2.1% prior
- 06:30 (EU) ESM to sell 1.0B in 3-month Bills; Avg Yield: % v -0.0533% prior; Bid-to-cover: x v 4.0x prior (Nov
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
US auto preview
- 07:00 (RU) Russia announces weekly OFZ bond auction
- 07:45 (US) ICSC Chain Store Sales
- 08:10 (US) Fed's Fischer on panel in Washington DC
- 08:15 (US) Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 08:30 (US) Fed Chair Yellen gives opening remarks in Washington
- 08:30 (SG) Singapore Nov Purchasing Managers Index: 51.6e v 51.9 prior; Electronics Sector Index: 52.1e v 52.5 prior
- 08:55 (US) Weekly Redbook Sales
- 09:00 (EU) Weekly ECB Forex Reserves: v prior
- 09:15 (BR) Brazil to sell I/L B2019, 2023, 2030, 2040 and 2050 bonds
- 09:45 (US) Nov ISM New York: 55.0e v 54.8 prior
- 10:00 (US) Oct Construction Spending M/M: +0.6%e v -0.4% prior
- 10:00 (DK) Denmark Nov Foreign Reserves (DKK): 443.3Be v 443.3 prior
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Central Bank Economist Survey
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Weekly International Reserves
- 10:30 (DE) German and French Finance Ministers meet in Berlin
- 10:30 (UK) DMO announces size of upcoming actions
- 11:00 (IS) Iceland Q3 Current Account Balance (ISK): No est v 3.0B prior
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 4-Week Bills
- 12:00 (EU) Fed's Brainard
- 16:00 (KR) South Korea Nov Foreign Reserves: No est v $363.7B prior
- 16:30 (US) Weekly API Crude Oil Inventories
- 19:01 (UK) Nov BRC Shop Price Index Y/Y: No est v -1.9% prior
- 19:30 (AU) Australia Q3 GDP Q/Q: 0.7%e v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: 3.1%e v 3.1% prior
- 20:00 (CN) China Nov Non-manufacturing PMI: No est v 53.8 prior

- 20:35 (JP) Japan Nov Services PMI: No est v 48.7 prior; Composite PMI: No est v 49.5 prior
- 20:45 (CN) China Nov HSBC Services PMI: No est v 52.9 prior; Composite PMI: No est v 51.7 prior
- 22:00 (CN) China to sell 7-Year Bonds


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