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Tuesday December 2, 2014 - 17:16:47 GMT
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| | Email US Market Update: Crude Rebounds, Equities Higher

Tue, 02 Dec 2014 12:07 PM EST

***Economic Data***
- (BR) Brazil Oct Industrial Production M/M: 0.0% v 0.3%e v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: -3.6% v -3.0%e
- (US) ICSC Chain Store Sales w/e Nov 28th: w/w: -1.8%; y/y: +2.8%
- (SG) Singapore Nov Purchasing Managers Index: 51.8 v 51.5e; Electronics Sector Index: 50.6 v 52.1e
- (US) Redbook Retail Sales w/e Nov 28th: +4.2% y/y, Nov MTD: -0.6% m/m; ; Nov MTD: 4.8% y/y
- (US) Nov ISM New York: 62.4 v 55.0e
- (US) Oct Construction Spending M/M: +1.1% v +0.6%e

The very modest rally off the lows seen in the US session yesterday morning are continuing today, while the US 10-year yield has eased a few basis points up to 2.264%. As of writing, the DJIA is up 0.36%, the S&P500 is up 0.48% and the Nasdaq is up 0.49%.

Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischer commented this morning that the FOMC was getting closer to removing the "considerable time" language from the statement, and warned that rate hikes would put the Fed in a whole new world of policy. Fischer said the US is not experiencing a real estate bubble, although he conceded that rates at zero were likely to put pressure on asset prices. The dollar has seen gains in the session, rising to fresh seven-year highs against the yen around 119 and back below 1.2400 against the euro.

Construction spending returned to healthy growth in October after having slipped 0.1% in September. Homebuilders were heartened by the 1.8% increase in spending on single-family houses. Note that the ISM's survey of New York business conditions surged to 62.4 in November from 54.8 in October, echoing the recent blowout in the Philly Fed survey.

Crude remains off its record lows seen yesterday morning, with WTI pivoting around $68 this morning. Brent crude has been trading in a band between $70 and $72. Meanwhile the volatility in metals continues, with spot gold back around $1,200 after it traded as high as $1,215 in the European session.

Most of the major automakers beat expectations for November US car sales. Chrysler again led the pack with a 20% y/y increase in sales, while GM saw a more modest 6% gain. Nissan's sales were down on a y/y basis but still better than expected, while Toyota eked out a slight gain. Ford was the laggard, with sales down 2%, right in line with consensus estimates, while truck sales flagged, mostly due to the changeover to the highly anticipated 2015 models.

Another day brings another pharma merger. This time Japanese giant Otsuka Holdings reached a deal to acquire Avanir for $17/shr in cash, in a total deal valued around $3.2 billion. The deal gives Otsuka access to Avanir's pipeline of treatments for Alzheimer's, Parkinson's and migraines as it faces patent expiration on its best-selling Abilify schizophrenia drug.

***Looking Ahead***
- 16:30 (US) Weekly API Crude Oil Inventories
- 19:01 (UK) Nov BRC Shop Price Index Y/Y: No est v -1.9% prior
- 19:30 (AU) Australia Q3 GDP Q/Q: 0.7%e v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: 3.1%e v 3.1% prior
- 20:00 (CN) China Nov Non-manufacturing PMI: No est v 53.8 prior
- 20:35 (JP) Japan Nov Services PMI: No est v 48.7 prior; Composite PMI: No est v 49.5 prior
- 20:45 (CN) China Nov HSBC Services PMI: No est v 52.9 prior; Composite PMI: No est v 51.7 prior


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