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Wednesday December 3, 2014 - 12:36:14 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: European PMI Services data mixed; USD continues to hit trend highs against numerous pairs

Wed, 03 Dec 2014 5:12 AM EST

- Australia Q3 GDP hits lowest rate of growth since Q1 2013 (Q/Q: 0.3% v 0.7%e; Y/Y: 2.7% v 3.1%e)
- China Nov Service PMI rises slightly MoM; Non-manufacturing PMI: 53.9 v 53.8 prior; HSBC Services PMI: 53.0 v 52.9 prior
- UK BRC Food prices comes in at -0.2%, 1st fall since records started in 2006 as a supermarket price war intensified.
- European PMI Services data mixed (Missed: France, Euro Zone; Beats: UK, Italy; with Germany in line)
- The USD continued to achieve fresh trend highs against numerous pairs (JPY, AUD and EUR)

***Economic Data***
- (IN) India Nov Services PMI: 52.6 v 50.0 prior; Composite PMI: 53.6 v 51.0 prior
- (IE) Ireland Nov Services PMI: 61.6 v 61.5 prior; Composite PMI: 59.9 v 60.2 prior
- (RU) Russia Nov Services PMI: 44.5 v 47.8e; Composite PMI: 47.6 v 49.1 prior
- (CH) Swiss Q3 GDP data beats; Q/Q: 0.6% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 1.9% v 1.4%e
- (SE) Sweden Nov PMI Services: 56.9 v 57.6 prior
- (TR) Turkey Nov CPI data mixed; M/M: 0.2% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 9.2% v 9.0%e; CPI Core Index Y/Y: 9.0% v 9.1%e
- (ES) Spain Nov Services PMI: 52.7 v 55.2e (13th month of expansion but lowest since Nov 2013); Composite PMI: 53.8 v 55.5 prior
- (IT) Italy Nov PMI data beats; Services PMI: 51.8 v 50.2e (2nd month of expansion and highest since July); Composite PMI: 51.2 v 49.6e
- (FR) France Nov Final PMI data misses; Services PMI: 47.9 v 48.8e (Confirms third straight month of contraction and lowest since Feb); Composite PMI: 47.9 v 48.4e
- (DE) Germany Nov Final PMI data mixed; Services PMI: 52.1 v 52.1e (Confirms 18th straight month of growth, lowest since July 2013)
- (EU) Euro Zone Nov Final PMI data misses; Services PMI: 51.1 v 51.3e (Confirms 16th straight month of expansion, lowest since Dec 2013);
- (UK) Nov Services PMI beats: 58.6 v 56.5e (Confirms 22nd straight month of growth)
- (EU) Euro Zone Oct Retail Sales M/M: 0.4% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 1.4% v 1.6%e

Fixed Income:
- None seen

Indices [Stoxx50 +0.3%,
FTSE 100 flat at 6,739, DAX +0.2% at 9,964, IBEX-35 +0.6% at 10,817, FTSE MIB +0.6% at 19,916, SMI +0.7% at 9,201, S&P 500 Futures flat at 2,065]

- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: Equity markets open mostly higher following recent gains in the US and Shanghai, Thursday's ECB meeting remains in focus, Markets later pare gains amid weaker services PMI data (France, Spain) and weakness in resource related shares

By Sector
- Consumer Discretionary
[Ladbrokes LAD.UK +2% (reaffirmed outlook); Metro MEO.DE -3% (broker commentary), Adidas -2% (broker commentary), Beiersdorf BEI.DE -1% (broker commentary) ]
- Healthcare [Evotec EVT.DE +11% (collaboration talks with Sanofi), Bayer BAYN.DE +1% (broker commentary); Fresenius SE FRE.DE -1.5% (broker commentary)]
- Technology [Sage Group SGE.UK +2% (reaffirmed outlook ]
- Industrials [BMW BMW.DE -1% (concerns related to China)]
- Financials [Nexity NXI.FR -3% (share placement) ]
- Stoxx50 sectors [Utilities +0.5%, Technology +0.3%, Financials +0.2%, Industrials +0.2%, Basic Materials +0.2%; Energy -0.4%Consumer Cyclical -0.4%, Consumer Non-Cyclical -0.2%,Telecom -0.3%]

- France Finance Ministry confirmed an additional 3.6B in cuts for its 2015 budget
and forecasted its deficit to GDP at 4.1%. It stated that the budget Deficit to GDP to be well below the 3.0% target in 2017. It expected EU Commission to say that France was in line with budget rules
- EU Commission: Troika and Greece still discussing budget issues
- Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) member Jansson: Low CPI doesn't reflect economy that has developed poorly. Inflation should rise under current measures and that current political turmoil is not affecting monetary policy
- Russia Central bank sold $700M in FX to combat weak RUB currency for settlement Dec 2nd
- Russia Finance Ministry reiterated it won't implement capital controls

- The USD continued to achieve fresh trend highs against numerous pairs (JPY, AUD and EUR)
- Euro weakened to test fresh 2-year lows below 1.2325 following disappointing Spanish PMI Services data. Various analyst continued to revise their prediction of ECB outlook with calls now sees QE in March 2015
- The USD/JPY hit a fresh seven-year high for the third consecutive day as it approached the 119.50 area
- Australia Q3 GDP data missed expectations and this prompted the AUD/USD to fresh 4 year lows around $0.8390

**Political/In the Papers:
-(GR) Greece PM Samaras: Holding early elections runs the risk of derailing the recovery efforts, expecting Greece yields to decline when a new Greece president is elected; Greece may surpass budget goals without more cuts.
- (UK) UK Fin Min Osborne: To extend funding for lending scheme (FLS) by 1 year to Jan 2016 (Program was due to end next month)
- (US) Treasury annual Financial Stability Report: Russia crisis poses a risk for US and Europe

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (SE) Sweden Parliament 2015 Budget vote expected in session
- (PL) Poland Central Bank (NBP) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Base Rate unchanged at 2.00%
- (BR) Brazil Central Bank (BCB) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to raise Selic Target Rate by 50bps to 11.75%

- 05:30 (DE) Germany to sell 3.0B in 0.25% Oct 2019 BOBL
- 05:30 (PT) Portugal Debt Agency (IGCP)to sell combined 0.5-0.75B in 3-month and 12-month Bills

- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Nov Live Register Monthly Change: No est v -3.5K pror ; Unemployment Rate: No est v 11.0% prior; Live Register Level: No est v 371.4K prior
- 06:30 (CL) Chile Central Bank Meeting Minutes
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (RU) Russia cancels planned OFZ Bond auction
- 07:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Nov 28th: No est v -4.3% prior
- 07:00 (BR) Brazil Nov PMI Services: No est v 48.2 prior; Composite PMI: No est v 48.4 prior
- 07:00 (UK) Prime Minister's Question Time in House of Commons
- 07:30 (UK) Chancellor Osborne Makes Autumn Statement to Parliament
- 08:15 (US) Nov ADP Employment Change: +222Ke v +230K prior
- 08:15 (US) Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 08:30 (US) Q3 Final Nonfarm Productivity: 2.4%e v 2.0% prelim; Unit Labor Costs: 0.0%e v 0.3% prelim
- 09:30 (BR) Brazil Weekly Currency Flows
- 09:45 (US) Nov Final Markit Services PMI: 56.5e v 56.3 prelim; Composite PMI: No est v 56.1 prior
- 10:00 (CA) Bank of Canada (BOC) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Interest Rates unchanged at 1.00%
- 10:00 (US) Nov ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite: 57.5e v 57.1 prior
- 10:00 (PL) Poland Central Bank Gov Belka to hold post rate decision press conference
- 10:30 (US) Weekly DOE Crude Oil Inventories
- 12:30 (US) Fed's Plosser speaks on the Economic Outlook in Charlotte, NC
- 14:00 (US) Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
- 14:00 (US) Fed's Brainard on financial stability in Washington
- 16:00 (CO) Colombia Oct Exports FOB: No est v $5.1B prior
- 17:30 (CA) Bank of Canada (BOC) Gov Poloz speaks at the Canada Summit
- 18:00 (KR) South Korea Q3 Final GDP Q/Q: 0.9%e v 0.9% prelim; Y/Y: 3.2%ev 3.2% prelim
- 19:30 (AU) Australia Oct Retail Sales M/M: No est v 1.2% prior
- 19:30 (AU) Australia Oct Trade Balance (AUD): No est v -2.3B prior
- 19:30 (US) Fed's Fisher addresses Dallas Business Club


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