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Wednesday December 3, 2014 - 16:51:23 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: November ADP Suggests Modest Employment Gains to Continue


Wed, 03 Dec 2014 11:41 AM EST

***Economic Data***
- (PL) Poland Central Bank (NBP) leaves rate unchanged at 2.00%, as expected
- (IE) Ireland Nov Live Register Monthly Change: -4.1K v -3.6K pror ; Unemployment Rate: 10.7% v 10.9% prior; Live Register Level: 371.1K v 371.2K prior
- (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Nov 28th: -7.3% v -4.3% prior
- (BR) Brazil Nov PMI Services: 48.5 v 48.2 prior (2nd month of contraction); Composite PMI: 48.1 v 48.4 prior
- (US) Nov ADP Employment Change: +208K v +222Ke
- (US) Q3 Final Nonfarm Productivity: 2.3% v 2.4%e; Unit Labor Costs: -1.0% v -0.2%e
- (US) Nov Final Markit Services PMI: 56.2 v 56.5e; Composite PMI: 56.1 v 56.1 prior
- (CA) Bank of Canada (BOC) leaves interest rates unchanged at 1.00%, as expected
- (US) Nov ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite: 59.3 v 57.5e
- (US) DOE Crude: -3.69M v +0.5Me; Gasoline: +2.14M v +1Me; Distillate: +3.03M v -0.5Me

US equity indices were advancing cautiously earlier, extending the gradual uptrend seen over the last two sessions, but have come off their highs mid-morning. Volatile commodity prices have settled down for the moment, while the 10-year UST yield is steady around 2.294 as participants pause ahead of Friday's November US jobs report. As of writing, the DJIA is flat, the S&P500 is still up 0.18% and the Nasdaq is up 0.18%.

The November ISM non-manufacturing PMI number blew out expectations and gained on the October reading, with notable gains in the new orders component. Meanwhile the ADP jobs number came at +208K, lower than expected but still north of the key 200K level. Consensus projections for Friday's non-farm payrolls are currently at +220K. Needless to say, the ISM and ADP data look far healthier than anemic final services PMI data out of Europe, helping drive EUR/USD to 1.2300, a 26-month low.

WTI crude had fallen to $67 earlier in the session, however the unexpected drawdown in crude stocks seen in the weekly DoE inventories report has firmed up the contract, with front month WTI back above $68 as of writing. Refineries are running at a faster pace than expected, but demand for gasoline and distillate fuels isn't keeping up. With oil prices heading south, the Russian Central Bank intervened again this morning, preventing USD/RUB from taking out 55.

Mall retailer Abercrombie & Fitch is up 5% in the early going despite a pretty poor third-quarter report. The firm cut its FY guidance and racked up -10% sales comps in the quarter. Brown Forman roundly missed consensus targets and cut its FY view, specifically citing the negative impact of the strong USD. Shares of BF.B are down 3%. Note that TASR is down 6% after the outsized gains of the last two sessions, along with the other cop cam names.

**Looking Ahead**
- 12:30 (US) Fed's Plosser speaks on the Economic Outlook in Charlotte, NC
- 14:00 (US) Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
- 14:00 (US) Fed's Brainard on financial stability in Washington
- 16:00 (CO) Colombia Oct Exports FOB: $4.9Be v $5.1B prior
- 18:00 (KR) South Korea Q3 Final GDP Q/Q: 0.9%e v 0.9% prelim; Y/Y: 3.2%ev 3.2% prelim
- 19:30 (AU) Australia Oct Retail Sales M/M: 0.1%e v 1.2% prior
- 19:30 (AU) Australia Oct Trade Balance (AUD): -1.8Be v -2.3B prior
- 19:30 (US) Fed's Fisher addresses Dallas Business Club
- (BR) Brazil Central Bank (BCB) Interest Rate Decision



 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Thu 16 Nov
01:30 AU- Employment
09:30 GB- Retail Sales
10:00 EZ- final HICP
14:15 US- Industrial Production
Fri 17 Nov
13:30 CA- Retail Sales, CPI
13:30 US- Housing Starts and Permits

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium Wed -- 20:30 GMT AU- Employment data.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu -- 09:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Mediun Thu -- 10:00 GMT EZ- final HICP. ECB targets inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu -- NY Morning US- Import Prices, Philly Fed, Industrial, Production, NAHB. Usually not major movers.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium Fri -- 13:30 GMT CA- Retail Sales and CPI.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium Fri -- 13:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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