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Thursday December 4, 2014 - 11:52:20 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: ECB under pressure to do even more to support the economy

Thu, 04 Dec 2014 5:11 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- (BR) Brazil Central Bank (BCB) stays vigilant on inflation and again raises Selic Target Rate; hikes by 50bps to 11.75%
- (AU) Australia economic data better-than-expected but fails to inspire AUD currency; Oct Retail Sales beats M/M: 0.4% v 0.1%e for its 5th monthly increase; Oct Trade Balance (A$): -1.3B v -1.8Be for its 7th consecutive trade deficit
- Shanghai Composite surges over 4% on fresh rate cut speculation after PBoC again halted its open market operations and injected liquidity for the third straight week
- ECB under pressure to do even more to support the economy; Draghi seen keeping the door open for a widening of the asset purchase program

***Economic Data***
- (FR) France Q3 ILO Unemployment Rate: 10.4% v 10.3%e;
Mainland Unemployment Rate: 9.9% v 9.8%e; Mainland Unemployment Change: +77K v +-12K prior
- (UK) Nov Halifax House Prices M/M: 0.4% v 0.3%e; 3M/Y: 8.2% v 8.0%e
- (NL) Netherlands Nov Harmonized CPI M/M: -0.7% v -0.5%e; Y/Y: 0.3% v 0.6%e
- (DE) Germany Nov Construction PMI: 53.5 v 51.5 prior

Fixed Income:
- (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) 3-tranche auction steady
; sold total 3.51B vs. 2.5-3.5B indicated range in 2017, 2020 and 2024 Bonds
- Sold 1.24B in 0.50% 2017 bono bond; Avg Yield: 0.584% v 0.638% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.94x v 3.28x prior; Maximum Yield: 0.595% v 0.677% prior
- Sold 1.0B in 1.40% 2020 bono; Avg Yield 0.946% (record low) v 1.060% prior; Bid-to-cover 2.75x v 2.77x prior; Maximum Yield: 0.959% v 1.084% prior
- Sold 1.27B in 2.75% 2024 bono; Avg Yield 1.840% (record low) v 2.123% prior; Bid-to-cover 2.19x v 2.98x prior; Maximum Yield: 1.850% v 2.148% prior
- (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) solid; sold total 3.997B vs. 3.0-4.0B indicated range in 2023, 2025 and 2027 Oats
- Sold 2.075B in 1.75% May 2023 OAT; Yield: 0.76% v 0.94% prior; bid-to-cover: 2.23 x v 2.62x prior
- Sold 1.332B in 6.0% Oct 2025 OATs; avg yield 1.11% v 3.31% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.44x v 2.50x prior
- Sold 590M in 2.75% Oct 2027 OAT; Yield 1.39% v 1.61% prior; bid-to-cover 4.19x v 2.60x prior

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
**Equities**
Indices [Stoxx50 +0.4%
, FTSE 100 -0.1% at 6,710, DAX +0.2% at 9,997, CAC-40 +0.2% at 4,403, IBEX-35 +0.2% at 10,901, FTSE MIB +0.2% at 20,018, S&P 500 Futures flat at 2,073]

- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: Equity markets open slightly higher ahead of ECB meeting amid continued sharp equity gains in Shanghai, DAX hovers near 10,000, FTSE 100 weighed down by ex-dividends (DEB.UK, LAND.UK), Airline sector supported by upgraded outlook by Ryanair, Mining and resource related shares trade with heavy tone, Plan to reduce stamp duty supports UK property firms

By Sector
- Telecom
[Avanti Communications AVN.UK -3% (follow-through selling)]
- Consumer Discretionary [Robert Walters RWA.UK +9% (staffing firm, upbeat outlook), Ryanair RYA.UK +9% (raised outlook), Betfair BET.UK +3.5% (planned cash return to shareholders), Unilever ULVR.UK +2% (options for spreads unit)]
- Consumer Staples [Ontex ONTEX.BE -4% (share placement)]
- Healthcare [Consort Medical CSRT.UK +2% (H1 profits rose)]
- Financials [Serco SRP.UK -6% (concerns related to rights offering)]
- Stoxx50 Sectors [Technology +1.5%, Consumer Cyclical +1%, Consumer Non-Cyclical +0.7%, Telecom +0.5%, Industrial, Utilities +0.3%, Financials +0.3%, Basic Materials +0.3%; Energy -0.3%]

***Speakers***
- France Fin Min Sapin
reiterated that the gvot 1% GDP growth for 2015 was attainable
- Norway's Statistics Office (SSB) Economic Forecasts cut it GDP outlook for both 2014 and 2015 and lowered its 2015 inflation view.
- Russia President Putin annual address to Federal Assembly noted that Russia showed in 2014 it is able to defend compatriots. He blamed West for pure cynicism in approach to Ukraine and that sanctions were harmful for all countries. Russia would not be pulled into an arms race; would not stop cooperating with the West (US/Europe) and no plans to cut off relations

***Currencies***
- Euro hits fresh 27-month low as it tests below 1.2300 ahead of the ECB rate decision
and press conference. Although the odds for fully blown QE have risen amid the weak growth outlook and the prospect of persistently low inflation. Dealers noting that Draghi would likely have to provide a very strong easing message in order to keep EUR/USD offered at this time but seen keeping the door open for a widening of the asset purchase program
- USD/JPY pair at fresh 7-year highs on Abeconomic outlook but the pair has been unable to break 120 handle. The upcoming election in Japan has polls suggesting LDP party widening its presence in Parliament to 300 seats out of 475 total, up from 295 seats before Parliament was dissolved

**Political/In the Papers:
- (US) Fed's Plosser (hawk, voter): Global slowdown not having a material impact on the US economy
- (US) Fed's Fisher (hawkish, FOMC voter): stop reinvestment process before raising rates; Timing for rate hike depends on inflation progress and employment
- (JP) Japan PM Abe's coalition estimated to maintain its 2/3 majority in the lower house elections with the LDP party seen taking as many as 300 seats out of 475 total, up from 295 seats before Parliament was dissolved.

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)
- 05:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to sell 12-month Bills
- 05:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to sell Floating Bond
- 06:00 (ZA) South Africa Oct Electricity Production Y/Y: No est v 0.1% prior; Electricity Consumption Y/Y: No est v -0.3% prior
- 06:00 (CZ) Czech Republic to sell Bills
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (PL) Poland to sell Bonds
- 07:00 (UK) Bank of England (BOE) Interest Rate Decision: expected to leave both Interest Rates and Asset Purchase Target (APT) unchanged at 0.50% and 375B respectively
- 07:00 (RU) Russia Gold and Forex Reserve w/e Nov 28th: No est v $420.4B prior
- 07:30 (US) Nov Challenger Job Cuts: No est v +51.2K prior; Y/Y: No est v 11.9% prior
- 07:30 (US) Dec RBC Consumer Outlook Index: No est v 51.7 prior
- 07:45 (EU) ECB Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Key Rates unchanged; Expected to leave Main 7-day Refinancing Rate unchanged at 0.05%; Expected to leave Marginal Lending Facility: unchanged at 0.30%; Expected to leave Deposit Facility Rate unchanged at -0.20%
- 08:15 (US) Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 08:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 295Ke v 313K prior; Continuing Claims: 2.32Me v 2.316M prior
- 08:30 (US) Weekly USDA Net Export Sales
- 08:30 (BR) Brazil Nov Vehicle Production (Anfavea): No est v 293.3K prior; Vehicle Sales: No est v 306.9K prior; Vehicle Exports: No est v 23.5K prior
- 08:30 (EU) ECB'S Draghi post rate decision press conference
- 08:30 (US) Fed's Mester gives opening Remarks at Conference in Washington
- 09:15 (BR) Brazil to sell 2015, 2016 and 2018 Bills
- 09:15 (BR) Brazil to sell Floating-rate 2020 Notes
- 10:00 (CA) Canada Nov Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (Seasonally Adj): 52.5e v 51.2 prior; PMI Unadj: No est v 54.2 prior
- 10:30 (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories
- 11:00 (US) Treasury to announce size of upcoming 3-year, 10-year and 30-year bonds
- 11:30 (EU) ECB's Nouy (head of SSM) in Berlin
- 12:00 (UK) BOE's Bailey
- 12:30 (US) Fed's Brainard on financial stability in Washington
- 16:00 (CO) Colombia Nov PPI M/M: No est v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: No est v 4.9% prior
- 19:30 (TW) Taiwan Nov CPI Y/Y: 1.2%e v 1.1% prior; WPI Y/Y: -1.5%e v 1.2% prior
- 20:00 (PH) Philippines Nov CPI M/M: 0.1%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 4.0%e v 4.3% prior; CPI Core Y/Y: 2.9%e v 3.2% prior
- 23:01 (MY) Malaysia Oct Trade Balance (MYR): 8.9Be v 9.3B prior; Exports Y/Y: -0.4%e v 2.0% prior; Imports Y/Y: -0.1%e v +1.1% prior



 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


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