Friday August 26, 2005 - 00:50:24 GMT
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Forex: Daily Forecast for the Euro vs U.S. Dollar 26th August 2005 Price:
Resistance: 1.2321 ... 1.2343 ... 1.2373 ... 1.2415
Support....: 1.2263 ... 1.2248 ... 1.2224 ... 1.2200
While 1.2275-86 supports there is a possibility of a move to 1.2343-73 but we look for the stronger decline to begin soon
Since preparing the chart image we have seen a break of 1.2286 and this is beginning to argue against a bullish picture. However, the clean break is at 1.2263. Until this area breaks there still remains a small risk of a return higher with a move above yesterday's high at 1.2324 signalling gains to 1.2343 at least and possibly 1.2373. However, we feel this will the most we shall see. Further resistance is at 1.2410-20.
We are frustrated with the persistence of the pullback higher but we are also committed to a bearish view. The final break lower would come at 1.2263 and until then there still remains a small risk of further gains to 1.2343-73. Thus from this higher resistance area or a direct break of 1.2263 we look for the downside to come under pressure with supports also at 1.2248, break of which would imply losses back down to the 1.2161 corrective low. Next support is the 1.2124 low.
Elliott Wave Comments:
25th August 2005
Price has been a little whippier than expected but we still feel that we are mapping out a second Wave x which should cap in the 1.2293-1.2316 area before the final ABC pattern can decline to the rough 1.2011 area.
26th August 2005
A small breach of the 1.2316 resistance but we are committed to a bearish stance and a decline to the 1.2011 area but need to manage this annoying reluctance to form a peak. It could well be that the 1.2324 level did form Wave x but we now feel we need wait for a break below 1.2148-62 and once seen we shall see a further decline that should reach the 76.4% retracement to 1.2011.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2005
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