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Thursday December 4, 2014 - 16:34:13 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: ECB Sovereign QE Could Be Late to the Party


Thu, 04 Dec 2014 11:19 AM EST

***Economic Data***
- (UK) Bank of England (BOE) left both Interest Rates and Asset Purchase Target (APT) unchanged at 0.50% and 375B respectively
- (US) Nov Challenger Job Cuts: +35.9K v +51.2K prior; Y/Y: -20.9% v +11.9% prior
- (US) Dec RBC Consumer Outlook Index: 53.3 v 51.7 prior
- (EU) ECB left all 3 Key Rates unchanged, as expected
- (RU) Russia Nov CPI M/M: 1.3% v 1.1%e; Y/Y: 9.1% v 8.9%e; CPI YTD: 8.5% v 8.3%e
- (RU) Russia Nov CPI Core M/M: 1.0% v 0.9%e; Y/Y: 8.9% v 8.7%e
- (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 297K v 295Ke; Continuing Claims: 2.362M v 2.32Me
- (BR) Brazil Nov Vehicle Production (Anfavea): 264.8K v 293.3K prior; Vehicle Sales: 294.7K v 306.9K prior; Vehicle Exports: 26.0K v 23.5K prior
- (CA) Canada Nov Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (Seasonally Adj): 56.9 v 52.5e; PMI Unadj: 49.2 v 54.2 prior
- (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories: -22 bcf vs. -41 to -45 bcf expected

ECB President Draghi's mixed messages at this morning's ECB rate decision and press conference slammed European equity indices. US futures were not too bad before the open, however cash trade has not been kind and all three US indices are at or near their lows. As of writing the DJIA and S&P500 are both down 0.5% a piece, while the Nasdaq is off 0.2%.

Draghi shot down expectations for any new QE in January at this morning's post rate-decision press conference, saying that the ECB council will reassess current measures in early 2015. Draghi offered little doubt that the details of sovereign QE were already being hashed out, with all possible assets but gold and foreign assets under consideration for purchase. Obliquely address German resistance to sovereign QE, Draghi reminded listeners that the ECB does not need unanimity to proceed on QE and has taken decisions that were not unanimous in the past.

ECB staff projections were among the most telling components of this morning's decision, especially the staff's ever-diminishing inflation forecast. Staff cut 2014 inflation to 0.5% from 0.6%, which does not seem like too much, although it worth noting that back in March the staff predicted 2014 inflation would be 1.0%. The staff 2015 inflation forecast has fallen from 1.3% back in March to 0.7% this morning. Nevertheless, Draghi implicitly resisted any suggestion that he saw deflation in the euro zone. EUR/USD bounced off two-year lows below 1.23 to pop above 1.24 as the press conference progressed.

Crude has given up most of the gains seen over the last three sessions. Brent has held on to $69, while WTI has dropped to $66.60. Earlier in the US session, Saudi Aramco sent out a release (that was later withdrawn) cutting Jan Arab light oil price to Asia to $2 discount to Brent. In North America, crude sold at the wellhead in the Bakken shale region in North Dakota fell to $49.69 a barrel in late November, according to Plains All American Pipeline LP.

JP Morgan published a big note on US airline stocks this morning, noting substantial improvements in their operating environment. Fuel-related issues were a big component, with JP Morgan calling the stocks undervalued than where they were at the end of summer. UAL is up 6% on the note, while AAL, DAL and JBLU are up 3% a piece or so as of writing.

***Looking Ahead***
- 16:00 (CO) Colombia Nov PPI M/M: No est v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: No est v 4.9% prior
- 19:30 (TW) Taiwan Nov CPI Y/Y: 1.2%e v 1.1% prior; WPI Y/Y: -1.5%e v 1.2% prior
- 20:00 (PH) Philippines Nov CPI M/M: 0.1%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 4.0%e v 4.3% prior; CPI Core Y/Y: 2.9%e v 3.2% prior
- 23:01 (MY) Malaysia Oct Trade Balance (MYR): 8.9Be v 9.3B prior; Exports Y/Y: -0.4%e v 2.0% prior; Imports Y/Y: -0.1%e v +1.1% prior



 

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


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