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Friday December 5, 2014 - 11:39:22 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: Focus turns to US Nov jobs report for further confirmation of G3 policy divergence

Fri, 05 Dec 2014 5:17 AM EST

- Overnight data releases saw inflation fall further in Taiwan and in the Philippines
- German Bundesbank cuts its growth and inflation forecast for 2014-16 period
- German Bundesbank Gov Weidmann vocal about his anti QE position at ECB
- Focus turns to US Nov jobs report for further confirmation of divergence in G3 monetary policies

***Economic Data***
- (JP) Japan Oct Preliminary Leading Index CI: 104.0 v 104.1e; Coincident Index: 110.2 v 110.0e
- (DE) Germany Oct Factory Orders U; M/M: 2.5% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 2.4% v 0.0%e
- (FI) Finland Q3 GDP Q/Q: 0.2% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 0.1% v 0.1% prior
- (ES) Spain Oct Industrial Output misses; NSA Y/Y: 0.6% v 3.6% prior; Industrial Output SA Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.5%e
- (CZ) Czech Oct Retail Sales Y/Y: 7.5% v 5.0%e
- (CH) Swiss Nov Foreign Currency Reserves (CHF): 462.4B v 465.5Be
- (SE) Sweden Oct Industrial Production misses; M/M: 0.2% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 0.1% v 0.2%e
- (NO) Norway Oct Manufacturing Production M/M: 1.6% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 4.6 v 2.1% prior
- (UK) BoE/GfK Inflation Next 12 Months: 2.5% v 2.8% prior
- (EU) Euro Zone Q3 Preliminary GDP data in line (2nd reading); Q/Q: 0.2% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 0.8% v 0.8%e

Fixed Income:
- None seen

Indices [Stoxx50 sectors +1.5%
, FTSE 100 +0.5% at 6,720, DAX +1.2% at 4,380, IBEX-35 +1.5% at 10,784, FTSE MIB +1.9% at 19,805, SMI +0.5% at 9,168, S&P 500 Futures flat at 2,073]

- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: Equity markets open higher after markets declined on Thursday's session amid ECB commentary, German Oct factory orders above ests, DAX moves back towards 10,000 (record high is near 10,050), UK-listed resource related shares mostly lower, Banks trade generally higher, US payrolls report in focus

By Sector
- Technology
[Monitise MONI.UK +4% (agreement with Virgin Money), United Internet UTDI.DE +2% (broker commentary)]
- Consumer Discretionary [Berkeley Group BKG.UK +4% (homebuilder, H1 profits rose)]
- Stoxx50 sectors [Telecom +1.5%, Consumer Cyclical +1.5%,
- Consumer Non-Cyclical +1.1%, Utilities +1%, Technology +1%,
- Financials +1%, Energy +0.8%]

- German Bundesbank cuts both GDP and inflation forecasts for 2014-16 period
. It noted that if crude oil prices remained subdued for an extended period of time, growth in the 2015+ time period could be 0.1-0.2% higher. Overall it stated the German economy was still in very good shape
- German Bundesbank President Weidmann stated that he saw oil driven low inflation differently and was very uncomfortable position as a Central bank. Monetary policy was too expansive for Germany's liking. He stressed that it could not use same formula that was used in Japan and elsewhere in the Euro Zone. European treaties rule out mutualization of risks
- Austria Central Bank updates its growth and inflation outlook and cuts its 2014 and 2015 GDP and CPI forecasts
- ECB's Nowotny (Austria)low oil price was an opportunity to raise growth but must anticipate weaker Q1 GDP than seen by ECB staff forecasts. He reiterated view that EMU growth cannot be boosted by monetary measures
- German Fin Min Schaeuble reiterates that loose monetary and fiscal policy was not the answer for growth
- Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) AF Jochnick reiterated view that low rates could lead to debt and housing prices rising
- China Politburo reiterated its pursuit of prudent monetary policy and proactive fiscal stance in 2015 and pledged to keep 2015 economic growth in a reasonable range. Economy was moving into a new normal phase
- Japan PM advisor Honda: Japan needs at least a 4T stimulus package. He noted that aid for low and middle income earners was needed to revive Abenomics. He also noted that current yen currency weakness was faster than expected but USD/JPY would not rise above 130-135

- The EUR/USD continued to consolidate from its recent 27-month low ahead of the key US payroll data
. Overall sentiment is to sell any EUR/USD rally. Following the Draghi press conference on Thursday, dealers continued to debate when the ECB would enact full-blown QE (Draghi indicated that he would proceed with consensus). The Bundesbank forecasts for headline inflation released in the session sees it back at levels in line with the ECB's definition of price stability by 2016 also ties in with Weidmann's hawkish stance on additional easing measures

**Political/In the Papers:
- (EU) ECB said to be considering the preparation of a broad QE package for consideration at the January meeting, package could include all sorts of bonds including sovereigns, but not equities
- Various German newspapers report that there were seven ECB members opposing the dovish change in the interest rate statement
-(GR) EMU reportedly considering extending the Greece bailout program by a period of 6 months

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (LV) Latvia Sovereign Debt Rating Published by Fitch (currently A- stable outlook)
- (IE) Ireland Sovereign Debt Rating Published by S&P (currently A- positive outlook)
- (IT) Italy Sovereign Debt Rating Published by S&P (Currently BBB with negative outlook)
- (SE) Sweden Sovereign Debt Rating May Be Published by Moody's and DBRS (currently AAA stable)
- OSCE Ministerial Council in Basel, Switzerland
- (MY) Malaysia end-Nov Foreign Reserves: $ v $126.6B prior
- (MX) Mexico Banamex Survey of Economists
- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Oct Industrial Production M/M: No est v 4.1% prior; Y/Y: No est v 20.8% prior (revised from 20.7%)
- 06:00 (BR) Brazil Nov IBGE Inflation IPCA M/M: 0.5%e v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 6.6%e v 6.6% prior
- 06:00 (EU) ECB announces 3-Year LTRO Repayment vs. 5.0e
- 06:00 (UK) DMO to sell combined in 1-Month Bills, 3-Month and 6-Month Bills
- 06:30 (CL) Chile Economic Activity Index (Monthly GDP) M/M: +0.1%e v -0.3% prior (revised from -0.2%); Y/Y: 1.4%e v 1.5% prior (revised from 1.4%)
- 06:30 (IN) India Weekly Forex Reserves
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (CL) Chile Oct Real Wage M/M: No est v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: No est v 1.3% prior
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Nov Official Reserves: No est v $100.1B prior
- 08:15 (US) Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 08:15 (IT) ECB's Visco (Italy) with Italy Fin Min Padoan in Rome
- 08:30 (US) Nov Change in Nonfarm Payrolls: +225Ke v +214K prior; Change in Private Payrolls: +218Ke v +209K prior; Change in Manufacturing Payrolls: +13Ke v +15K prior
- 08:30 (US) Nov Unemployment Rate: 5.7%e v 5.8% prior; Underemployment Rate: No est v 11.5% prior; Change in Household Employment: No est v +683K prior; Labor Force Participation Rate: No est v 62.8% prior
- 08:30 (US) Nov Average Hourly Earnings M/M: 0.2%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 2.1%e v 2.0% prior; Average Weekly Hours: 34.6e v 34.6 prior
- 08:30 (US) Oct Trade Balance: -$41.2Be v -$43.0B prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Oct Int'l Merchandise Trade: C$0.2Be v C$0.7B prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Nov Net Change in Employment: 0.0Ke v +43.1K prior; Unemployment Rate: 6.5%e v 6.5% prior;
Full Time Employment Change: No est v +26.5K prior; Part Time Employment Change: No est v +16.5K prior; Labor Productivity Q/Q: No est v 1.8% prior; Participation Rate: No est v 66.0% prior
- 08:45 (US) Fed's Mester speaks on Financial Stability in Washington
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Nov Consumer Confidence Index: No est v 90.6 prior
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Oct Leading Indicators M/M: No est v 0.05 prior
- 10:00 (US) Oct Factory Orders: -0.1%e v -0.6% prior
- 10:00 (US) Possible Oct Durable goods revisions
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Central Bank (Banxico) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Overnight Rate unchanged at 3.00%
- 12:30 (US) Fed's Meister speaks in Washington
- 14:45 (US) Fed's Fischer speaks Via Video to IMF Event in Washington
- 15:00 (US) Oct Consumer Credit: $16.0Be v $15.9B prior
- 19:00 (CO) Colombia Nov CPI M/M: 0.0%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 3.5%e v 3.3% prior
- 19:00 (CO) Colombia Nov CPI Core M/M: No est v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: No est v 2.9% prior

- (CL) Chile Nov CPI M/M: No est v 1.0% prior; Y/Y: No est v 5.7% prior; CPI Core M/M: No est v 0.7% prior


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