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Friday December 5, 2014 - 16:02:35 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: November Jobs Report Best in Three Years


Fri, 05 Dec 2014 10:44 AM EST

***Economic Data***
- (US) Nov Change in Nonfarm Payrolls: +321K v +230Ke; Change in Private Payrolls: +314K v +225Ke; Change in Manufacturing Payrolls: +28K v +15Ke
- (US) Nov Unemployment Rate: 5.8% v 5.8%e; Underemployment Rate: 11.4% v 11.5% prior; Change in Household Employment: +4K v +683K prior; Labor Force Participation Rate: 62.8% v 62.8% prior
- (US) Nov Average Hourly Earnings M/M: 0.4% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 2.1% v 2.1%e; Average Weekly Hours: 34.6 v 34.6e
- (US) Oct Trade Balance: -$43.4B v -$41.2Be
- (CA) Canada Oct Int'l Merchandise Trade: C$0.1B v C$0.2Be
- (CA) Canada Nov Net Change in Employment: -10.7K v 0.0Ke; Unemployment Rate: 6.6% v 6.6%e; Full Time Employment Change: +5,7K v +26.5K prior; Part Time Employment Change: -16.3K v +16.5K prior; Labor Productivity Q/Q: +0.1% v 1.8% prior; Participation Rate: 66.0% v 66.0%e
- (MX) Mexico Nov Consumer Confidence Index: 92.9 v 90.0e
- (MX) Mexico Oct Leading Indicators M/M: 0.10 v 0.11 prior
- (US) Oct Factory Orders: -0.7% v 0.0%e
- (MX) Mexico Central Bank (Banxico) left Overnight Rate unchanged at 3.00%

The largest gain in non-farm payrolls in three years is certainly helping this morning, but the gains are less than might be expected. Big job gains can only prod the Fed to moving sooner on rates, a feeling that is reflected in the underperformance in the belly of the curve. Note that fed fund futures are now fully pricing in a rate hike by next summer. As of writing the DJIA is up 0.24%, the S&P500 is up 0.10% and the Nasdaq has added 0.33%.

The November non-farm payrolls report delivered its highest reading in more than three years, while the October non-farm total was revised up by more than 10%. Along with big payrolls gains came a surprising m/m bump up in hourly earnings, which was twice the expected rate and well ahead of October's rate. The dollar strengthened in the wake of the numbers, with EUR/USD briefly testing below 1.2280 while USD/JPY it at its highs around 121.70.

The financial sector is leading the S&P500 higher this morning, with shares of the biggest banks rising 1.5-2.0% a piece in the early going. Interest rate hikes should benefit the industry, and better employment certainly suggests more spending, more loans and more mortgages. Homebuilders are making very modest gains. Crude has dropped more than a buck since the jobs report, with WTI futures dipping to $65.50 and Brent down to $68.50. Overall the materials sector is the laggard on the S&P500.

Retain names American Eagle and Big Lots are getting slammed after reporting pretty dismal quarterly results. Big Lots' quarterly loss was steeper than expected, although the firm is still eking out positive sales comps. American Eagle met expectations, but comps were down 5% with no recovery in sight. Gap had gained in the post market thanks to a surprisingly strong November SSS report, although GPS has given up its gains. AEO and BIG are both down 14% a piece.

***Looking Ahead***
- Ireland, Italy, Latvia and Sweden sovereign debt ratings to be published
- 12:30 (US) Fed's Meister speaks in Washington
- 14:45 (US) Fed's Fischer speaks Via Video to IMF Event in Washington
- 15:00 (US) Oct Consumer Credit: $16.5Be v $15.9B prior
- 19:00 (CO) Colombia Nov CPI M/M: 0.0%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 3.5%e v 3.3% prior
- 19:00 (CO) Colombia Nov CPI Core M/M: No est v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: No est v 2.9% prior



 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Mon 20 Nov
14:00 EZ- Draghi Speech
15:00 US- Leading Indicators
Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
US/JP- Holiday
All Day flash PMIs
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


John M. Bland, MBA
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