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ECONOMIC DATA ANALYSIS - TLTRO2 WATCHED FOR SIGNS OF THE EFFECTIVENESS OF ECB POLICY ACTIONS

ECONOMIC DATA ANALYSIS  FRIDAY 5 DECEMBER 2014

 

TLTRO2 WATCHED FOR SIGNS OF THE EFFECTIVENESS OF ECB POLICY ACTIONS 

  • Size of second TLTRO tranche will affect expectations of further ECB actions
  • Car purchases to boost US retail sales but lower oil price to hold down headline rate
  • Weak Chinese data may provide trigger for further monetary policy easing

European monetary policy will again be the centre of attention next week with the results of the second TLTRO. Key data in China will drive expectations of the likelihood of further interest rate cuts and whether the demand for commodities will continue to slide. In the US, November retail sales will provide a reading on early Christmas shopping, while Congress has to agree on a debt ceiling extension by Thursday to avoid another government shutdown. Meanwhile, the first official UK data for the final quarter will provide some initial evidence on whether Q4 GDP growth is holding up.  

The second tranche of the ECB’s TLTRO programme (Thurs) is expected to be more widely taken up than September’s initial offering. The first operation totalled just €82.6bn, less than a quarter of the €400bn that the ECB had indicated was available over the two dates. The take-up is expected to be a lot higher this time. We estimate a likely figure of around €200bn, somewhat in excess of the consensus expectation of €150bn. Whether this is enough to satisfy the ECB is unclear, but it will also be assessing the impact of its current purchases of covered bonds and ABS. At his press conference following the ECB’s latest policy meeting, President Draghi stated they would review policy early next year once they had more indication of the impact of the measures announced so far. The indications are that he has more work to do to build a consensus on the Board for further action, in particular, for sovereign QE.

Chinese economic data over the coming week include November inflation, retail sales, fixed investment and industrial production. Most, if not all, of these are likely to signal a further slowing in both inflation and economic activity from October. This may force the Chinese authorities to consider further monetray policy easing even before year end or by early next year at the latest. Indeed the recent, probably unwanted tightening in market interest rates may already be pushing them in that direction. There is also a risk that signs of weaker growth in the world’s largest energy consumer will push oil prices even lower. Nevertheless, we still expect a modest recovery in oil prices next year.

In the US, November retail sales (Thurs) are likely to be seen as the data highlight of the week. Despite evidence that US economic growth is accelerating, retail sales have been relatively disappointing in the second half of the year. The signs are that this continued to be the case in November. Dealers’ reports suggest that car sales were up strongly, but initial indications suggest that “Black Friday” high street sales disappointed. As the retail sales series is not adjusted for inflation, it will also be held down by the fall in gasoline prices during the month. We expect a solid monthly rise of 0.4%. Otherwise the most interesting data for the week may be the October JOLTS measure of labour market turnover (Tues), a known favourite of Fed Chair Yellen. This is expected to show further labour market tightening. Politics could also impact on markets, as Congress must take action to extend the compromise on the debt ceiling by Thursday to avoid a government shutdown. They will probably do so, but the compromise may be short term until the new Congress meets early next year.    

It is a relatively quiet week in the UK. However, industrial production (Tues), international trade (Wed) and construction output (Fri) will provide the first official  readings on economic activity in the  early part of  Q4. All are expected to confirm the firm tone noted in the PMIs recently and point to solid rises in activity, suggesting that GDP growth in Q4 will be close to the 0.7% rise seen in Q3. 

 

 

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This material has been prepared for information purposes only and Lloyds TSB, Bank of Scotland, their directors, officers and employees are not responsible for any consequences arising from any reliance upon such information. Under no circumstances should this material be treated as an offer or solicitation to offer, to buy or sell any product or enter into any transaction. If you receive information from us which is inconsistent with other information which you have received from us, you should refer this to your Lloyds TSB or Bank of Scotland Relationship Manager for clarification.

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
US/JP- Holiday
All Day flash PMIs
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes

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Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


John M. Bland, MBA
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