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Monday December 8, 2014 - 06:22:08 GMT
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| | Email Asian Market Update: China trade surplus hits record high as imports contract; Japan Final GDP confirms recession - Source

- (CN) CHINA NOV TRADE BALANCE: $54.5B V $44.0BE (record high surplus); Exports Y/Y: 4.7% v 8.0%e; Imports Y/Y: -6.7% v +3.8%e (1st decline in 3 months)- (JP) JAPAN Q3 FINAL GDP Q/Q: -0.5% V -0.1%E; ANNUALIZED GDP: -1.9% V -0.5%E; NOMINAL GDP: -0.9% V -0.5%E; Confirms technical recession with 2nd consecutive contraction - (JP) JAPAN OCT CURRENT ACCOUNT: 833B V 370BE; ADJ CURRENT ACCOUNT: 947B V 455BE; TRADE BALANCE: -767B V -570BE - (JP) JAPAN NOV BANK LENDING INCL TRUSTS: 2.7% V 2.3% PRIOR (highest since May 2009); BANK LENDING EX-TRUSTS: 2.8% V 2.4%E - (AU) AUSTRALIA NOV ANZ JOB ADS M/M: 0.7% V 0.2% PRIOR; 6th consecutive increase - (NZ) NEW ZEALAND Q3 MANUFACTURING ACTIVITY VOLUME Q/Q: +0.4% V -0.6% PRIOR; MANUFACTURING ACTIVITY Q/Q: -1.2% (2nd consecutive decline) V -2.3% PRIOR ***Index Snapshot (as of 02:30 GMT)***- Nikkei225 +0.2%, S&P/ASX +0.9%, Kospi -0.3%, Shanghai Composite +1.4%, Hang Seng +0.4%, Dec S&P500 -0.1% at 2,075, ***Commodities/Fixed Income***- Feb gold +0.2% at $1,192, Jan crude oil -1.2% at $65.08/brl, Mar copper flat at $2.91/lb- GLD: SPDR Gold Trust ETF daily holdings rise 0.9 tonnes to 720.9 tonnes - USD/CNY: (CN) PBoC sets yuan mid point 6.1282 v 6.1373 prior setting (strongest setting since Mar) - (KR) South Korea sells 5-yr govt bond at average yield of 2.425% ***Market Focal Points/Key Themes/FX***- After a 9% rally last week, Shanghai Composite has picked up more ground to fresh 42-month highs, coming within 10pts of the psychological 3,000 level. China trade figures were mixed - November surplus hit a record high, but imports fell y/y for the first time in 3 months. Iron ore imports were particularly soft at 67.4M tons v 79.4M prior. Export growth was also unimpressive, as shipments to US slowed to 2.6% from 10.9% and exports to Japan continued to contract y/y. China Customs noted that exports growth would continue to face pressure for 2014-end to early 2015.- Separately in China, cabinet officials are expected to hold the annual Central Economic Work Conference, with the findings likely lowering 2015 GDP target closer to 7.0% from 7.5% in 2014. Concurrently, CICC stated that 2014 and 2013 output may actually be revised higher after revised census estimates. In the property space, consultancy CBRE recommended another PBoC rate cut to support the sector, while a local press report speculated the govt could further adjust property policy to boost demand.- Japan Q3 Final GDP was a disappointment to Abenomics, just as the ruling party heads to the polls next Sunday. Despite expectations of improvement from prelim figures, the Final prints were actually worse than initially estimated. Corporate Capex was again the culprit, contracting -0.4% vs -0.2% preliminary estimate and +0.9% consensus. JPY firmed on the release, falling some 50pips from session highs below 121.40. A Nikkei survey of corporate leaders saw over 40% of respondents prefer USD/JPY in 100-110 range, and over 50% noting the impact of sales tax hike in April was worse than expected. The leader of opposition DPJ party said the negative impact of the weak yen can no longer be overlooked. - Australia held its first major govt investigation into the financial sector since 1997. The financial system inquiry (FSI) determined that banks should increase their capital buffers to make the financial system "unquestionably strong on a global basis", adding the current estimate of Australia's big four banks' capital levels would be around 10.0-11.6%, while 12.2% is needed to make the top 25%. A research note from Moody's stated that recommendations are positive and would not contain any immediate ratings implications. Australia ANZ jobs data rose m/m for the 6th consecutive month, with the total 138,053 ads/week as the highest average since January last year. AUD/USD is down about 50pips from Friday close below $0.8280, resuming downward trend to multi-year lows after the China trade figures.***Equities***Market Snapshot (as of 03:30 GMT):- Nikkei225 +0.2%, S&P/ASX +0.9%, Kospi -0.3%, Shanghai Composite +1.4%, Hang Seng +0.4%, Dec S&P500 -0.1% at 2,075, Feb gold +0.2% at $1,192, Jan crude oil -1.2% at $65.08/brlUS markets: - CBST: Merck in talks to acquire Cubist for about $102/shr, valuing it at $8B - financial pressNotable movers by sector:- Consumer Discretionary: Qantas Airways QAN.AU +14.1% (higher H1 guidance)- Financials: China Poly Real Estate 600048.CN -0.9% (Nov sales results); Kaisa Group Holdings 1638.HK +1.3% (Nov sales results); China Poly Real Estate 600048.CN +1.3% (Nov sales results); Greentown China 3900.HK -2.3% (Nov sales results)- Materials: Bluescope Steel BSL.AU +2.5% (reporting segment changes); Mount Gibson Iron MGX.AU -4.9% (analyst action)- Industrials: James Hardie Industries JHX.AU +3.3% (FY15 guidance)- Healthcare: Astellas Pharma 4503.JP +1.0% (provides update on drug); Takeda Pharmaceutical 4502.JP +0.8% (provides update on drug) - Source


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