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Monday December 8, 2014 - 12:02:31 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: Potential ECB QE remains the focus

Mon, 08 Dec 2014 5:10 AM EST

- Markets appear to be settling in for end of year trade
- China data disappoints again with Nov Trade Balance registers a record surplus: ($54.5B v $44.5Be) as components disappoint (Exports +4.7% v +8.1%e; Imports: -6.7% v +4.0%e)
- Japan Q3 Final GDP revised lower despite expectations of Capex improvements
- ECB remained in focus with speculation building whether the central bank would deliver QE in January
- German Industrial Production stabilizing but Oct data misses expectations

***Economic Data***
- (DE) Germany Oct Industrial Production missed
; M/M: 0.2% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 0.8% v 0.9%e
- (FR) Bank of France Nov Business Sentiment (beats): 97 v 96e
- (TW) Taiwan Nov Trade Balance: $4.2B v $4.5Be; Exports Y/Y: 3.7% v 2.7%e; Imports Y/Y: 5.11% v 2.3%e
- (ZA) South Africa Q3 Current Account data worse then expected; C/A Balance (ZAR): -230B v -215Be; C/A to GDP Ratio: -6.0% v -5.8%e
- (CZ) Czech Nov Unemployment Rate (in line): 7.1% v 7.1%e
- (CH) Swiss Nov CPI data mixed; M/M: 0.0% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: -0.1% v -0.1%e
- (EU) Euro Zone Dec Sentix Investor Confidence (beats): -2.5 v -9.0e

Fixed Income:
- None seen

Indices [Stoxx50 -0.4%
, FTSE 100 -0.6% at 6,698, DAX -0.2% at 10,057, CAC-40 -0.4% at 4,396, IBEX-35 -0.3% at 10,867, FTSE MIB -0.3% at 20,018, SMI -0.2% at 9,196, S&P 500 Futures -0.3% at 2,069]

- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: Equity markets open lower following the sharp gains seen on Friday's session amid rise in US 2-yr bond yields after employment data, Markets slightly pare losses amid dovish commentary from ECB's Nowotny then resumed declines, DAX declines amid weaker German industrial production data, Resource related shares generally lower amid weaker imports data from China, Thursday's ECB TLTRO in focus (second TLTRO),

By Sector:
- Industrials
[Sika SIK.CH -10% (rejected takeover offer)]
- Basic Materials/Resources [Petropavlovsk POG.UK -30% (refinancing agreement), Avocet Mining AVM.UK -5% (mining halt), Saint Gobain SGO.FR -2% (made offer for Sika), K+S SDF.DE -1.5% (broker commentary)]
- Consumer Discretionary [Cupid CUP.UK -20% (strategic review update) ]
- Consumer Staples [Carl Zeiss AFX.DE -3% (cautious outlook); Sainsbury SBRY.UK +1.5% (speculation related to activist shareholder)]
- Financials [SocGen GLE.FR -1% (broker commentary)]
- Healthcare [Epigenomics ECX.DE +20% (regulatory approval in China)]
- Stoxx50 sectors [Industrials -0.8%, Consumer Non-Cyclical -0.6%, Energy -0.6%, Utilities -0.5%, Technology -0.3%, Basic Materials -0.3%, Financials -0.2%, Consumer Cyclical flat; Telecom +0.2%]

- ECB's Nowotny (Austria) stated that he saw a massive weakening in Euro Zone economy and region was a weak spot in the global economy. He noted of a high probability of lower inflation rate in Q1. German economy was contributing to the region's downturn. Need to discuss all pros and cons of govt bond buying; thinking specifically about govt bonds for any QE program
- German Fin Min Schaeuble: Most likely Greece would need more time but we'' find a way for the country (**Note: refers to its bailout exit). If more time was needed on budgets it must be used well
- Eurogroup chief Dijsselbloem: Not sure if Greece will be granted an extension on its bailout exit. Sanctions was one option on France budget but situation to be evaluated in March
- India Trade Min Sitharaman: Govt keening observing export growth; FY15 avg monthly exports have been approx $27B
- There was speculation that large banks in China want the PboC to cut the RRR amid concerns about lower deposits and margins

- Recent string of strong US data (highlighted by Friday's payrolls) keeping USD rally going
- Dealer began the week believing that EUR's upside should be limited. One of the focus will be on Thursday second leg of the targeted LTRO operations. Another disappointing TLTRO take-up could increase speculation that the ECB enters a full-blown QE operation in January, which should put EUR currency under additional selling pressure
- Dealers commenting about France and the pending Sovereign Debt Rating to published by Fitch on Friday, Dec 12th. There is some speculation of a chance that France could be downgraded (**Note: On Oct 14th Fitch placed France AA+ sovereign rating on Watch Negative)
- USD/JPY off its 8-year high of 121.84 that was registered during the Asian session. Pair just above 121 as the NY morning approached

**Political/In the Papers:
- Bank for International Settlements (BIS) Quarterly Review noted that global financial markets were increasingly fragile despite renewed hopes for economic growth. Prolonged rally in the USD could expose financial vulnerabilities in emerging markets by damaging some companies' creditworthiness
- (EU) ECB's Coene (Belgium): Policy makers have underestimated the impact of inflation on Europe, must assess the impact of oil price moves on inflation expectations
- (GR) Greece govt secured sufficient votes to pass 2015 state budget by 155 to 134 vote margin
- (IT) S&P lowered Italy sovereign rating one notch from BBB to BBB-; now lowest level of investment grade; outlook Stable
- (ES) Spain PM Rajoy: no plans to call early elections; would stand for reelection if named as the People's Party candidate
-(CN) China expected to decide to cut its GDP target for the first time in 3 years at this week's annual Central Economic Work Conference

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)
- 05:30 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Weekly Economists Survey
- 05:45 - (FI) ECB's Liikanen (Finland)
- 06:00 (NL) Netherlands Debt Agency (DSTA) cancels Bill auction
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 08:00 (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) announces size of upcoming auctions
- 08:15 (CA) Canada Nov Annualized Housing Starts: 195.0Ke v 183.6K prior
- 08:15 (US) Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Oct Building Permits M/M: 3.9%e v 12.7% prior
- 08:50 (FR) France to sell combined 6.0-7.2B in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month bills
- 09:00 (EU) Euro-Area Finance Ministers (Eurogroup) meet in Brussels (attended by ECB chief Draghi with member Coeure (France)
- 09:30 (EU) ECB announces weekly purchases under its covered bond program 3 (CBPP3)
- 09:35 (EU) ECB calls for bids in 7-day main Refi
- 10:00 (HU) Hungary Nov YTD Budget Balance (HUF): No est v -809.6B prior
- 10:00 (US) Nov Labor Market Conditions: No est v 4.0 prior
- 10:30 (MX) Mexico Nov Vehicle Production: No est v 330.2K prior; Vehicle Domestic Sales: No est v 100.9K prior; Vehicle Exports: No est v 25.7K prior
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell combined $50B in 3-Month and 6-month Bills
- 12:30 (US) Fed's Lockhart speaks on Monetary Policy in Atlanta
- 19:01 (UK) Nov BRC Sales Like-For-Like Y/Y: No est v 0.0% prior


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