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Tuesday December 9, 2014 - 11:41:40 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: 2-way risk finds its way back into price action

Tue, 09 Dec 2014 5:22 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- China PBoC cuts down corporate bond usage for bond repo business; lower-rated bonds can no longer be used as collateral for some short-term loans, sparking a selloff in riskier debt that spread to government notes and stock
- German Nov Imports registers its fastest pace of decline in almost two years
- UK Industrial Production misses expectations with MoM reading registering its 1st negative reading since May

***Economic Data***
- (JP) Japan Nov Preliminary Machine Tool Orders Y/Y: 36.6% v 30.8% prior
- (CH) Swiss Nov Unemployment Rate: 3.2% v 3.2%e; Unemployment Rate (Seasonally Adj): 3.1% v 3.2%e
- (DE) Germany Q3 Labor Costs Q/Q: 0.2% v 1.0% prior; Y/Y: 2.3% v 1.9% prior
- (DE) Germany Oct Current Account Balance beats: 23.1B v 18.0Be; Trade Balance beats: 21.9B v 18.9Be; Exports M/M: -0.5% v -1.7%e; Imports M/M: -3.1% v -1.7%e
- (FR) France Oct YTD Budget Balance: -84.7B v -80.5B prior
- (FR) France Oct Trade Balance better; -4.6B v -4.9Be
- (CZ) Czech Nov CPI data softer-than-expected; M/M: -0.2% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.6% v 0.7%e
- (UK) Oct Industrial Production misses; M/M: -0.1% v +0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.1% v 1.8%e
- (UK) Oct Manufacturing Production misses; M/M: -0.7% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.7% v 3.2%e

- (ZA) South Africa Oct Total Mining Production M/M: 0.5% v 4.8%e; Y/Y: -1.1% v +2.1%e
- (GR) Greece Nov CPI Y/Y: -1.2% v -1.2%e; CPI EU Harmonized Y/Y: -1.2% v -1.5%e
- (BR) Brazil Dec IGP-M Inflation (1st Preview): 0.6% v 0.7%e

Fixed Income:
- (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) auction results steady
; sold total 4.5B vs. 3.5-4.5B indicated range in 6-Month and 12-Month Bills
- Sold 683M in 6-month bills; Avg Yield: 0.276% v 0.211%; Bid-to-cover: 4.98x v 3.26x prior
- Sold 3.82M in 12-month bills; Avg Yield: 0.363% v 0.312% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.01x v 2.00x prior
- (AT) Austria Debt Agency (AFFA) sold 880M in 1.65% 2024 RAGB Bonds; Avg Yield: 0.825% v 0.992% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.58x v 2.10x prior

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
**Equities**
Indices [Stoxx50 -1%
, FTSE 100 -1% at 6,602, DAX -0.8% at 9,933, CAC-40 -1% at 4,329, IBEX-35 -1% at 10,677, FTSE MIB -0.8% at 19,782, SMI -0.5% at 9,136, S&P 500 Futures -0.3% at 2,054]

- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: Equity markets open lower following Monday's losses amid sharp declines in Shanghai (-5.4%), Another profit warning weighs on Tesco, Retailer Asos' Q1 sales below ests, UK listed resource related shares generally lower, Greek equities decline over 5% on early election concerns, Dubai equity market declines over 5% amid lower oil prices, Sberbank declines amid continued rise in Russian yields

By Sector:
- Energy
[BP BP.UK -1.5% (lower oil prices, US court ruling)]
- Financials [Euronext ENX.FR -5% (share placement), Deutsche Bank DBK.DE -1% (US tax probe), MunichRe MUV2.DE -1% (broker commentary)]
- Healthcare [Bayer BAYN.DE -1.5% (broker commentary), Glaxo GSK.UK -1% (broker commentary); Galapagos GLPG.BE +5% (takeover speculation) ]
- Consumer Discretionary [Tesco TSCO.UK -13% (profit warning), Asos ASC.UK -5% (Q1 sales below ests)]
- Stoxx50 sectors [Energy -1.8%, Telecom -1.2%, Industrials -1%, Consumer Non-Cyclical -0.9%, Utilities -0.8%, Financials -0.8%, Technology -0.8%, Basic Materials -0.7%, Consumer Cyclical -0.6%]

***Speakers***
- ECB said to limit emergency liquidity assistance (ELA) to banks
with a duration of only 6 months as it sought to avoid ELA for clearly ailing banks
- BlackRock head of European fixed income Scott Thiel: unclear if QE will work for the Euro region
- India Fin Min Jaitley stated that he had no concern over current account situation at this time as the Balance of Payments (BOP) was broadly under control
- World Bank on Russia: Baseline scenario forecasts 2015 GDP at -0.7% and +0.3% in 2016
- Russia Foreign Min Lavrov Contact group to meet in coming days to discuss implementation of ceasefire plan for Eastern Ukraine
- Gazprom confirms Ukraine resumed Russia gas imports on Tuesday, Dec 9th following Ukraine prepayment last week

***Currencies***
- The USD appeared to enter some consolidation after weeks of solid gains.
Profit-taking and some risk aversion flows were attributed to the price action today. Asian stock markets were lower across the board which was preceded by losses in Europe and the US on Monday (yesterday)
- The USD/JPY retreated from 8-year highs near 122 reached on Monday to test below 120 in the today's session
- The EUR/USD trading at 1.2350 just ahead of the NY mrning.
- Dealers looking ahead to Thursday SNB rate decision believe that eventually the central bank would have to use negative interest rates to prevent the 1.2000 franc cap in EUR/CHF from being breached
- Equities in Greece decline over 3.5% amid election concerns with its 10-year gov't yield at 7.50%, higher by over 45bps

**Political/In the Papers:
- Fed watcher Hilsenrath (WSJ): Fed aims to signal shift on low interest rate and could drop 'considerable time' language in policy statement
- (US) House and Senate leaders are said to be planning $1.1T 2015 spending bill
- (GR) Greece and the Eurogroup said to have reached an agreement to extend the bailout program by two months
- (GR) Greece intends to begin the election process for a new President with first round voting on Dec 17th. According to a related report, the Syriza Party said that the current govt did not have the votes to elect a President and that the vote would trigger snap election in parliament
- (CN) China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) may speed up IPO approval amid stock rally - Chinese press
- (CN) China to halt accepting new corporate, local govt bond buybacks with less than "AA" rating - Chinese press

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (DE) German Chancellor Merkel at Annual Congress of her CDU: Cologne
- (EU) EU Energy Ministers hold meeting in Brussels
- (PT) ECB's Constancio (Portugal) participates at EcoFin in Brussels
- 05:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to sell 3-month Bills
- 05:30 (UK) DMO to sell 1.75B in 3.5% 2045 Gilts

- 06:00 (ZA) South Africa Oct Manufacturing Production M/M: 2.0%e v 4.0% prior; Y/Y: 2.4%e v 8.0% prior
- 06:00 (BR) Brazil Q3 National Unemployment Rate
- 06:30 (HU) Hungary's Central Bank Gov Matolcsy speaks at Forum
- 06:30 (CL) Chile Nov Trade Balance: 0.4Be v $0.6B prior; Total Exports: No est v $6.3B prior; Total Imports: No est v $5.8B prior; Copper Exports: No est v $3.3B prior
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (RU) Russia announces weekly OFZ bond auction
- 07:00 (CZ) Czech Central Bank on CPI data
- 07:00 ECB's Makuch (Slovakia)
- 07:30 (US) Nov NFIB Small Business Optimism: 96.5e v 96.1 prior
- 07:45 (US) ICSC Chain Store Sales
- 08:15 (US) Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 08:55 (US) Weekly Redbook Sales
- 09:00 (EU) Weekly ECB Forex Reserves
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Nov CPI M/M: 0.8%e v 0.6% prior; Y/Y: 4.2%e v 4.3% prior; CPI Core M/M: 0.2%e v 0.2% prior
- 10:00 (US) Oct Wholesale Inventories M/M: 0.2%e v 0.3% prior; Wholesale Trade Sales M/M: -0.1%e v +0.2% prior

- 10:00 (US) Dec IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism: 47.0e v 46.4 prior
- 10:00 (US) JOLTS Job Openings: 4.77Me v 4.735M prior
- 10:00 (UK) Nov NIESR GDP Estimate: No est v 0.7% prior
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Weekly International Reserves
- 10:00 (EU) EU Finance Ministers (Ecofin) press conference
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 4-Week and 52-Week Bills
- 12:00 (US) DOE Short-Term Crude Outlook
- 12:00 (BE) ECB's Praet (Belgium)in Washington DC
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $25B in 3-Year Notes

- 16:00 (KR) South Korea Nov Export Price Index M/M: No est v 0.7% prior; Y/Y: No est v -4.1% prior
- 16:00 (KR) South Korea Nov Import Price Index M/M: No est v -0.9% prior; Y/Y: No est v -7.4% prior
- 16:30 (US) Weekly API Crude Oil Inventories Data
- (MX) Mexico Nov ANTAD Same-Store Sales Y/Y: 2.3%e v 2.1% prior
- 18:00 (KR) South Korea Nov Unemployment Rate (Seasonally Adj): 3.5%e v 3.5% prior
- 20:30 (CN) China Nov PPI Y/Y: -2.4%e v -2.2% prior
- 20:30 (CN) China Nov CPI Y/Y: 1.6%e v 1.6% prior
- 22:00 (CN) China to sell 1-Year Bonds
- 22:35 (JP) Japan to sell 2-Month Bill



 

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