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Tuesday December 9, 2014 - 16:55:45 GMT
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| | Email US Market Update: Risk Off Globally Thanks to Broken China, Greece Fire

Tue, 09 Dec 2014 11:46 AM EST

***Economic Data***
- (US) Nov NFIB Small Business Optimism: 98.1 v 96.5e
- (US) ICSC Chain Store Sales w/e Dec 5th: w/w: -1.5%; y/y: +2.9%
- (US) Weekly - (US) Redbook Retail Sales w/e Dec 5th: 3.9% y/y, Dec MTD: -1.3% m/m
- (EU) Weekly ECB Forex Reserves: 231.9B v 230.1B prior
- (MX) Mexico Nov CPI M/M: 0.8% v 0.8%e; Y/Y: 4.2% v 4.2%e; CPI Core M/M: 0.2% v 0.2%e
- (US) Oct Wholesale Inventories M/M: 0.4% v 0.2%e; Wholesale Trade Sales M/M: 0.2% v 0.1%e
- (US) Dec IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism: 48.4 v 47.0e
- (US) JOLTS Job Openings: 4.83M v 4.80Me
- (UK) Nov NIESR GDP Estimate: 0.7% v 0.7% prior

Risk is off the table globally this morning after China rolled out new measures to deflate its debt bubble and the euro zone debt crisis saw yet another encore performance. Note that the possible political crisis in Athens has forced Greek equities down more than 13% today, their biggest slide in more than two decades. As of writing, the DJIA is down 0.96%, the S&P500 is down 0.75% and the Nasdaq is down 0.54%

The ugliness cuts across nearly all asset classes except bonds and gold. The 10-year UST yield is back at 2.2%, while the 30-year yield is 2.86%, its lowest level since 2012. Meanwhile spot has surged more than 3%, rising from $1,200 to around $1,235. With the big gain in gold, the miners and associated stocks are among the best performers today. WTI crude broke to $62.50 in the Asia session, but has risen back to around $63.50 as of writing.

Fed Chair Yellen's favorite jobs data, the JOLTS job openings survey, was in line with expectations in October. The survey saw 4.8 million openings was just a notch higher than the 4.7 million in September.

Merck got a rude surprise just hours after announcing its $9.5B acquisition of Cubist Pharmaceuticals. Yesterday afternoon, a US court nixed all but one of the patents covering its top seller, Cubicin - and that patent expires in 2016. Cubicin has racked up $700M in sales YTD, and Merck's deal calculations hoped to keep that revenue flowing until at least 2019. Now generics could launch as soon as mid 2016. Shares of MRK and CBST are both down more than 4% a piece.

Big US financials opened today down one percent or so, led lower by Bank of America and Citi. Earlier this morning, BoA's CEO spoke at an the Goldman Sachs financials conference and warned that Q4 sales and trading revenue to be lower y/y and q/q. At the same conference, Citigroup's CEO warned that the bank would take a $3.5B charge in Q4 for legal investigations and would be marginally profitable after the charge.

Yesterday after the close, Verizon warned that pressure in the wireless segment from promotional activity would pressure Q4 EBITDA and margins. Verizon said it was seeing very strong customer volumes and strong demand for mobile devices. At a conference this morning, AT&T echoed its competitor's comments about the promotional environment, but said that wireless margin in 2014 to be similar or better than last year, although churn would be a bit higher. Both VZ and T were down as much as 4% in the early going.

Airline stocks have nosedived thanks to cautious comments out of low-cost carrier Spirit Airlines. With its monthly metrics release last night, Spirit warned that since late October, there has been compression in the fare structure for close-in bookings driven by the industry's willingness to trade lower fuel prices for lower fares. Shares of SAVE were down as much as 16% after the open of cash trade, with other US airline stocks down 4% a piece.

***Looking Ahead***
- 12:00 (US) DOE Short-Term Crude Outlook
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $25B in 3-Year Notes
- 14:00 (BR) Brazil Congress expected to vote on 2014 fiscal target
- 16:00 (KR) South Korea Nov Export Price Index M/M: No est v 0.7% prior; Y/Y: No est v -4.1% prior
- 16:00 (KR) South Korea Nov Import Price Index M/M: No est v -0.9% prior; Y/Y: No est v -7.4% prior
- 16:30 (US) Weekly API Crude Oil Inventories Data
- 18:00 (KR) South Korea Nov Unemployment Rate (Seasonally Adj): 3.5%e v 3.5% prior
- 20:30 (CN) China Nov PPI Y/Y: -2.4%e v -2.2% prior
- 20:30 (CN) China Nov CPI Y/Y: 1.6%e v 1.6% prior


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