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Wednesday December 10, 2014 - 11:35:11 GMT
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| | Email EU Mid-Market Update: Markets try to shake off recent Chinese and Greek turbulence

Wed, 10 Dec 2014 5:22 AM EST

- Disinflation theme remains intact. China inflation lower than expected and spurs speculation that PBoC has room to act (cut rates or RRR); CPI registers its lowest reading since Nov 2009 while PPI fell for the 33rd straight month and at its steepest pace in 18 months (Nov CPI Y/Y: 1.4% v 1.6%e and Nov PPI Y/Y: -2.7% v -2.4%e)
- Greece political situation continued to weigh on its domestic markets
- France Oct Industrial Production data misses expectations

***Economic Data***
- (JP) Japan Nov Consumer Confidence Index: 37.7 v 39.5e (4th straight monthly decline and lowest since April)
- (FR) France Q3 Final Non-Farm Payrolls revised worse; Q/Q: -0.3% v -0.2%e
- (FI) Finland Oct Industrial Production data mixed; M/M: 0.2% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: -0.4% v -1.0%e
- (FR) France Oct Industrial Production misses; M/M: -0.8% v +0.2%e; Y/Y: -1.0% v +0.1%e
- (FR) France Oct Manufacturing Production misses; M/M: -0.2% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: -0.6% v -0.4%e
- (ZA) South Africa Nov CPI data inline; M/M: 0.0% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 5.8% v 5.8%e (**Note: 3rd straight month Headline CPI YoY reading remained within SARB's inflation target range of 3.0-6.0%)
- (TR) Turkey Q3 GDP data misses; WDA Q/Q: 0.4% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 1.8% v 2.8%e; GDP (unadj)Y/Y: 1.7% v 2.8%e
- (IS) Iceland Central Bank (Sedlabanki) cuts cut 7-Day Lending Rate by 25bps to 5.50% (more than expected)
- (NO) Norway Nov CPI data in line; M/M: 0.1% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.9% v 1.9%e
- (UK) Oct Trade Balances mixed; Visible Trade Balance worse: -9.6B v -9.5Be; Overall Trade Balance better: -2.0B v -2.4Be; Trade Balance Non-EU better: -3.6B v -3.9Be

Fixed Income:
- (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) auction results steady;
sold total 5.5B vs. 5.5B indicated in 12-month Bills; Avg Yield: 0.418% v 0.335% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.84x v 1.78x prior

Indices [Stoxx50 sectors +0.8%
, FTSE 100 +0.3% at 6,550, DAX +0.9% at 9,882, CAC-40 +0.6% at 4,291, IBEX-35 +0.8% at 10,540, FTSE MIB +1% at 19,573, SMI +0.1% at 9,061, S&P 500 Futures flat at 2,058]

- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: Equity markets open higher following sharp losses on Tuesday and rebound in Shanghai and dovish comments from ECB's Praet, Markets later pare gains, Greek equities extend losses after Tuesday's record decline, Resource related shares trade mostly lower amid lower oil and copper prices, BP to review 2015 CAPEX, Thursday's ECB TLTRO in focus

By Sector
- Financials
[Serco SRP.UK +3% (contract award)]
- Consumer Discretionary [Ashtead AHT.UK +4% (upbeat outlook), TUI AG TUI1.DE flat (FY results above ests) ]
- Technology [Infineon IFX.DE +1.5% (Broadcom raised guidance)]
- Industrials [BMW BMW.DE +1% (Nov sales +7.6% y/y)]
- Stoxx50 sectors [Technology +0.8%, Consumer Non-Cyclical +0.8%, Industrials +0.4%, Basic Materials +0.3%, Utilities +0.2%, Financials +0.2%, Energy flat; Telecom -0.3%, Consumer Cyclical -0.1%]

- BoEs Gov Carney reiterated view that path of rate hikes to be gradual and limited
. He added that it was right to keep stimulus in UK economy due to weak export markets and needed fiscal adjustments, He also reiterated that UK inflation likely to dip below 1.0% and could take some time for it to move back to target
- BOE's McCafferty (dissenter) reiterated view that wage pressures could emerge in near future and not much slack left in the UK economy. Must raise rates soon to keep the increases gradually
- ECB's Hansson (Estonia) reiterated recovery in Euro Area was not as fast as expected and was too early to judge on ECB action in Jan. he added the he believes ECB should buy corporate bonds before sovereigns
- Greece formally request bailout extension of two months (in line with Monday's Eurogroup meeting
- Portugal Econ Min Lima: 2015 GDP growth could be 2.0% if oil prices did not rebound
- German RWI institute cut its German 2015 GDP from 1.8% to 1.5%
- Russia PM Medvedev stated that inflation to be above 9% at emd-2014. Says sanctions and oil price to influence RUB currency (Ruble) exchange rate
- India Central Bank (RBI) Dep Gov Mundra: There is room to soften monetary policy stance if lower inflation trend continues

- Dealers still debating that Fed might use its next meeting to soften its guidance language
given the continued strength seen in US economic data. Overall the renewed political concerns in Greece, and associated worries over its commitment to economic reform, should keep a headwind on any potential euro rally
- USD/JPY briefly traded below the 119 handle. The yen currency advanced as global growth concerns and political uncertainty in Greece dented risk appetite
- Asian data suggest China was becoming increasingly a source of deflation. The slower inflation numbers stoked expectations that China could again move aggressively to head off the risk of deflation
- Greece political situation continued to weigh on its domestic markets. 10-year gov't yield was above 8.15% vs. 7.92% earlier in session (overall higher by over 20bps in session) while the 3-year yield above 9.00% vs. 8.47% earlier in session

**Political/In the Papers:
- (EU) ECB's Praet (Belgium): Any ECB bond buying program needs to be designed with an eye to the design of the overall Eurozone. ECB could make a decision in January on the program but implement it at a later date
-(UK) British Chambers of Commerce (BCC): lowers UK 2014 GDP forecast to 3.0% from 3.2% prior, lowers 2015 to 2.6% from 2.8% prior, lowers 2016 to 2.4% from 2.5% prior; Due to slower than expected growth in household consumption, exports, services and Q3 GDP
- (JP) Japan's ruling coalition (LDP/Komeito) to come away with more than 2/3 majority of seats in lower Parliament after Dec 14th elections
- (NZ) Fonterra lowers FY14/15 payout forecast for farmgate milk price to NZ$4.70/kg from NZ$5.30/kg

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (TR) Turkey Central Bank to hold press conference
- (GR) Greece Dep PM Venizelos to meet Germ Fin Min Schaeuble in Berlin
- (PT) Bank of Portugal reports Oct ECB financing to Portuguese banks at vs. 33.4B prior
- (PE) Peru Oct Trade Balance: -$0.4Be v -$0.3B prior
- (MX) Mexico Nov Nominal Wages: No est v 3.7% prior
- (GR) Greece Debt Agency (PDMA) to sell combined 2.25B in in 13-week and 26-week Bills
- 05:30 (DE) Germany to sell 4.0B in 0% Dec 2016 Schatz

- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Oct Trade Balance: No est v -1.1B prior
- 06:00 (ZA) South Africa Oct Retail Sales M/M: 0.0%e v -0.8% prior; Y/Y: 2.2%e v 2.3% prior
- 06:30 (CL) Chile Central Bank's Traders Survey
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (RU) Russia cancelled OFZ Bond auction
- 07:00 (UK) Prime Minister's Question Time in House of Commons
- 07:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Dec 5th: No est v -7.3% prior
- 08:00 (EU) EU's Juncker and European Commission to be sworn In in Luxembourg
- 08:00 (HU) Hungary Central Bank's Minutes
- 08:00 (PT) Bank of Portugal Winter Economic Bulletin
- 08:15 (US) Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Sept Gross Fixed Investment: 6.7%e v 4.3% prior
- 09:30 (BR) Brazil Weekly Currency Flows
- 10:00 (FR) ECB's Coeure (France) in participates in seminar in Brussels
- 10:30 (US) Weekly DOE Crude Oil Inventories
- 11:15 (UK) Bank of Canada (BOC) Dep gov Wilkins
- 12:00 (US) USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) Crop Report
- 12:00 (CA) Canada to sell 30-Year Real Return Bonds
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $21.0B in 10-Year Notes Reopening
- 14:00 (US) Nov Monthly Budget Statement: -$79.5Be v -$121.7B prior
- 15:00 (NZ) New Zealand Central Bank (RBNZ) Interest Rate Decision; Expected to leave Official Cash Rate unchanged at 3.50%
- 15:00 (NZ) RBNZ Gov Wheeler press conference
- 19:30 (AU) Australia Nov Employment Change: +15.0Ke v +24.1K prior; Unemployment Rate: 6.3%e v 6.2% prior
- 22:35 (JP) Japan to sell 3-Month Bill
- (KR) Bank of Korea (BoK) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave 7-Day Repo Rate unchanged at 2.00%


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