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Friday August 26, 2005 - 11:39:29 GMT
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange -

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Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition

Key Points
• USD marking time, UK Bank holiday looms…

• Greenspan gives his “Reflections on Central Banking" today, unlikely to be market relevant.

• Consensus for next week’s US payrolls is 200k.

• The final reading of the August U. of Michigan survey is due today.

• Canadian CPI today, last major release before the BoC meeting on September 7.

• The Eurozone M3 number was strong - again.

Market Outlook

The EUR-USD eked out further gains on market speculation, rapidly denied, that the Chinese central bank might revalue the yuan again. A spokesman for the PBOC said "The yuan's exchange rate is decided by market forces. The issue of a preliminary revaluation or there being a further revaluation does not exist." Speculation is likely to continue ahead of Chinese President Hu Jintao's visit to Washington on September 7 though. EUR-USD is hovering near 1.2350. A break there would signal scope for the correction to extend back towards 1.25, even up to 1.2650 on this move. The 1.2260-50 area remains strong support, with the key area for USD bulls noted at 1.2125-1.21. Eurozone M3 came in stronger than expected again, after having already posted three unusually strong months, well above the ECB’s “non-inflationary” 4.5% reference value. The ECB has a problem with its second pillar (monetary aggregate), this will not be sufficient to trigger a rate hike but it might lead to more hawkish comments at next week’s meeting. The only US data of note today is the final update of the University of Michigan confidence survey for August but that is unlikely to move the market, while Greenspan is also due to testify to the Jackson Hole symposium. He is unlikely to say anything new on current monetary policy and there is no Q&A. Bear in mind too that Monday is a UK bank holiday and many traders will be looking to head home early. The key data for next week is the August US employment report with consensus currently around the 200k mark.

PM Koizumi is crossing the wires saying he won’t extend his term beyond 2006 and USD-JPY isEUR-JPY hit 135.70 in Asian trading, before fading in the European session, with the 135 area under pressure now.

UK – Q2 GDP was revised higher in line with expectations, up to 0.5% q/q and 1.8% y/y. EUR-GBP remains on a firm footing short term, following the bounce from 0.6765, with scope for the pullback to extend to 0.6850, even 0.6865 short term.

Elsewhere, USD-CAD continues to look on track for the low 1.18 area, with the major low from November 2004 noted at the 1.1717 low below that. Any USD corrective upticks to the 1.20 area should meet CAD buyers. Worries about an unusually active hurricane season are helping to buoy oil prices, and hence the CAD given its status as a petro-currency these days.

US – Federal Reserve Chairman Greenspan speaks on "Reflections on Central Banking" at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Symposium, Jackson Hole, Wyoming this afternoon. The final reading of the University of Michigan confidence survey is due, the market is expecting a slight revision lower to 92.5, from 92.7 at the first reading.

Canada – August CPI is due. The consensus is for the core number to rise 1.5% y/y again in August, while the non-core number is forecast to pick-up to 2.1% y/y (after a 1.7% y/y gain in July). This is the last data of import ahead of the BoC’s expected 25bp rate hike on September 7, probably the first of three moves…

Day Ahead
Data/event EDT Consensus*

CA CPI (Aug) y/y 07.00 +2.1%
CA CPIX (Aug) y/y 07.00 +1.5%
US Michigan sentiment (Aug, final) 09.45 92.5
US Fed’s Greenspan speaks 10:00

Latest data Actual Consensus*
JP CPI Tokyo (Aug, core) y/y -0.3% -0.4% last
JP CPI Nwide (Jul, core) y/y -0.2% -0.2% last
EU M3 (Jul) y/y +7.9% +7.2%
EU M3 (Jul) 3m y/y +7.6% +7.3%
UK GDP (Q2, 2nd) +0.5% +0.5%
* Consensus unless stated

2005, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.40 EDT Monday May 31 2005


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