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Thursday December 11, 2014 - 12:05:10 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: Norway Central Bank surprises with a rate cut; 2nd TLTRO allotment leaves door open for ECB QE

Thu, 11 Dec 2014 5:45 AM EST

- Risk aversion sentiment gathers some momentum with falling commodity prices denting risk appetite
- Day of central bank decisions; initially no surprises from New Zealand Central Bank (RBNZ); Bank of Korea (BoK); Philippines and Indonesia as they all kept policy steady; However; Norway surprised to cut rates by 25bps
- Australia Nov Employment Change hits a 9-month high but all on 'part-time' work (+42.7K v +15.0Ke) while its Unemployment Rate hits a 12-year high (6.3% v 6.3%e)
- 2nd TLTRO operation left the door open for potential ECB QE as it came in just below expectations of 130B (higher than in Sept 82B take)

***Economic Data***
- (DE) Germany Nov Final CPI data inline; M/M: 0.0% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 0.6% v 0.6%e
- (FR) France Nov CPI data misses; M/M: -0.2% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.3% v 0.4%e
- (HU) Hungary Nov CPI misses M/M: -0.4% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: -0.7% v -0.5%e (lowest annual reading in 5 decades)
- (PH) Philippines Central Bank (BSP) left its Overnight Borrowing Rate unchanged at 4.00% (as expected)
- (CH) Swiss National Bank (SNB) left both its 3-Month Libor Target Rate EUR/CHF Floor unchanged at 0.00% and 1.2000 respectively (as expected)
- (SE) Sweden Nov CPI data beats; M/M: -0.1% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: -0.2% v -0.3%
- (SE) Sweden Nov Unemployment Rate: 7.4% v 7.4%e; Unemployment Rate (Seasonally adj): 7.8% v 8.0%e;
- (ID) Indonesia Central Bank (BI) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Reference Rate unchanged at 7.75%
- (NO) Norway Central Bank (Norges) cut its Deposit Rates by 25bps to 1.25%; Not expected
- (GR) Greece Sept Unemployment Rate: 25.7%% v 25.7%e (lowest since Aug 2012)
- (RU) Russia Central Bank (CBR) raised its One-week Auction Rate by 100bps to 10.50% (as expected)

Fixed Income:
- (EU) ECB alloted 129.8B in its Second Targeted Long-Term Refinancing Operation (TLTRO) vs. 130.Be
- (UK) DMO sold 800M in 0.75% I/L 2034 Gilts; Real Yield: -0.756% v 0.007% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.3x v 1.85x prior

Indices [Stoxx50 +0.6%,
FTSE 100 flat at 6,499, DAX +0.7% at 9,863, CAC-40 +0.7% at 4,244, IBEX-35 +0.8% at 10,487, FTSE MIB +0.7% at 19,359, SMI +0.1% at 9,030, S&P 500 Futures +0.3% at 2,033]

- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: Equity markets open lower following Wednesday's losses ahead of the ECB TLTRO operation; Greek equities open slightly lower; Markets pare losses amid generally in line TLTRO announcement; Resource-related firms trade mixed as energy shares gain; Various ex-dividends weigh on FTSE 100 (Aberdeen, Babcock Interational); Spainish retailer Inditex reports in line results; Fiat Chrysler weighed down by capital raise; Germany's C.A.T Oil supported by M&A; France's CGG sharply lower amid lower oil prices and concerns related to Technip's bid; Weaker oil prices weigh on Gulf markets

By Sector
- Consumer Discretionary
[SuperGroup SGP.UK -8% (cut margin forecast), Thomas Cook TCG.UK -3% (broker commentary); Inditex ITX.ES +2.5% (9-month results in line) ]
- Consumer Staples [Carl Zeiss AFX.DE -1% (broker commentary) ]
- Industrials [Fiat Chyrsler FCA.IT -5% (priced capital raise), Airbus AIR.FR -2.5% (follow through selling) , Weir Group WEIR.UK -2% (broker commentary)]
- Energy [C.A.T Oil O2C.DE +18% (takeover offer), John Wood Grop WG.UK +1% (reaffirmed outlook, contract award)]
- Stoxx50 sectors [Financials +0.6%, Energy +0.5% Telecom +0.4%, Consumer Cyclical +0.4%, Technology +0.2%, Utilities +0.1%, Industrials flat, Basic Materials flat, Consumer Non-Cyclical flat]

- SNB reiterated its rhetoric on the FX floor
. It maintained its view that CHF currency (franc) remained high in value and would intervene and buy unlimited quantities of foreign currency to defend the minimum exchange rate or take other measures if needed. It also noted lower oil prices to push inflation below zero over next year and property imbalances remained as high as before
- SNB's Jordan post rate decision press conference noted it would do everything needed to ensure policy and that the minimum exchange rate was key instrument to avoid tightening of monetary conditions. Deflation risks have increased once again in recent months. Further Franc appreciation would push inflation well into negative territory. He reiterated view that it did not exclude negative interest rates or other measures
- Norway Central Bank (Norges) pushed out its forward guidance and now saw its key rate at present level or lower until the end of 2016 (**Note: prior view was unchanged until the end of 2015)
- Norges Bank Gov Olsen stated that he saw roughly a "50/50 chance: for more cuts and that it was very far from situation to use unconventional measures
- Russia Central Bank stated that it was ready to raise rate further due to high inflation, devaluation expectations. It forecastd 2014 inflation at 10.0% and could exceed that level in Q1 2015
- ECB's Liikanen (Finland): Eurozone inflation to remain subdued. Governing Council was committed to new instruments if needed
- ECB's Coeure: TLTRO take up within ECB estimates
- BoE to publish minutes alongside meetings from Aug 2015 and reduce number of meeting to 8 from 2016
- France revises public deficit forecasts for 2016 and 2017 in order to take into account new savings measures
- German IFO institute raised its forecast for 2014 and 2015 GDP outlook for Germany. It now saw 2015 German GDP at +1.5% due to effects lower Euro and oil
- Fitch sovereign analyst Colquhoun stated that if Japan's fiscal 2015 budget did offset sales tax delay then it would likely downgrade Japan. The govt delay in sales tax hike had decreased its confidence in Japan's commitment to fiscal consolidation. He added that would unlikely cut rating more than one notch
- BoJ assessment to upgrade its view on exports but some BoJ officials said to view the recent Yen currency sell-off as too rapid
- Moody's raised Philippines sovereign rating from Baa3 to Baa2 (one notch) with stable outlook
- Philippines Central Bank rate statement noted it was prepared to take appropriate measures and that global conditions remained challenging. It saw a lowers inflation path for 2014-16 period and prospects for domestic economy continued to be firm
- China Economic Work Council: Reiterates prudent monetary and proactive fiscal policy following its conclusion

- The USD reversed its initial soft tone in the session and firmed against the major pairs.

- The EUR/USD probed the lower end of the 1.24 handle after the ECB 2nd TLTRO came in just below expectations and leaving the door open for potential QE in Q1 2015
- Yen weakened for the first time in 3 sessions as investors look ahead to the weekend elections in Japan. The USD/JPY moved above the 118.60 area just ahead of the NY morning, over 100pips above its Asian session lows
- The SNB provided further verbal support underlining its willingness to defend the EURCHF 1.20 floor. The cross drifted lower towards the floor in the aftermath of its decision
- The Norwegian currency (Krone) weakened after the Norges unexpectedly cut its Deposit Rate by 25bps in session. The EUR/NOK hit a 5-year high above the 9.07 level before consolidating
- RUB currency (Ruble) weakens to fresh record lows following Russian rate hike decision; pair traded above 55 level

**Political/In the Papers:
- (EU) ECB's Coeure (France): ECB must show in a convincing way that it can bring inflation back to target of 2%
- (EU) FT blog suggests that leaked draft of EU summit communique seems to indicate that Draghi will not get the usual political cover for a bold QE move next year

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (EU) EU's Juncker in Parliament
- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Nov CPI M/M: No est v -0.3% prior; Y/Y: No est v 0.2% prior
- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Nov CPI EU Harmonized M/M: No est v -0.3% prior; Y/Y: No est v 0.4% prior
- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Q3 GDP Q/Q: 0.3%e v 1.5% prior; Y/Y: 4.1%e v 7.7% prior
- 06:00 (PL) Portugal Nov CPI M/M: No est v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: No est v 0.0% prior
- 06:00 (PL) Portugal Nov CPI EU Harmonized M/M: No est v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: No est v 0.1% prior
- 06:00 (IL) Israel Nov Trade Balance: No est v -$830M prior
- 06:00 (IS) Iceland to sell Bills
- 06:30 (CL) Chile Central Bank's Economist Survey
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (RU) Russia Gold and Forex Reserve w/e Dec 5th: No est v $420.5B prior
- 07:45 (CA) Bank of Canada (BOC) Gov Poloz at Economics Club in NY
- 08:15 (US) Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 08:30 (US) Nov Advance Retail Sales M/M: 0.4%e v 0.3% prior; Retail Sales Ex Auto M/M: 0.1%e v 0.3% prior; Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas: 0.5%e v 0.6% prior; Retail Sales Control Group: 0.5%e v 0.5% prior
- 08:30 (US) Nov Import Price Index M/M: -1.8%e v -1.3% prior; Y/Y: -2.6%e v -1.8% prior
- 08:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 297Ke v 297K prior; Continuing Claims: 2.34Me v 2.362M prior

- 08:30 (CA) Canada Oct New Housing Price Index M/M: 0.1%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: No est v 1.6% prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Q3 Capacity Utilization: 83.0%e v 82.7% prior
- 08:30 (US) Weekly USDA Net Export Sales
- 09:15 (BR) Brazil to sell 2015, 2016 and 2018 Bills
- 09:15 (BR) Brazil to Sell Fixed-rate 2021 and 2025 bonds
- 10:00 (US) Oct Business Inventories: 0.2%e v 0.3% prior
- 10:30 (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories
- 11:00 (IS) Iceland Nov International Reserves (ISK): No est v 557B prior
- 11:00 (US) Treasury 5-year TIPS announcement
- 12:00 (US) Q3 Household Change in Net Worth: No est v $1.390T prior
- 16:00 (CL) Chile Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Overnight Rate Target unchanged at 3.00%
- 18:00 (PE) Peru Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Reference Rate unchanged at 3.50%
- 20:05 (NZ) New Zealand plans to Sell NZD300M in Nominal Bonds
- 23:30 (JP) Japan Oct Final Industrial Production M/M: No est v 0.2% prelim; Y/Y: No est v -1.0% prelim; Capacity Utilization M/M: No est v 3.6% prior


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