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Friday December 12, 2014 - 12:17:18 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: IEA again lowers its 2015 oil demand growth forecast

Fri, 12 Dec 2014 5:20 AM EST

- US avoids potential shutdown; House passed $1.1T govt spending bill; Senate vote forthcoming
- Mixed China data Nov Industrial Production misses (Y/Y: 7.2%% v 7.5%e) while Retail Sales beats (Y/Y: 11.7% v 11.5%e; New Yuan loans beats (CNY): 852.7B v 655.0Be while Money Supply falls short
- Oil continues its way south after IEA cuts its demand growth forecast for 4th time in last 5 months

**Economic Data***
- (DE) Germany Nov Wholesale Price Index M/M: -0.7 v -0.6% prior; Y/Y: -1.1% v -0.7% prior

- (SE) Sweden Nov PES Unemployment Rate: 4.1% v 4.1%e
- (ES) Spain Nov CPI M/M: -0.1%e; Y/Y: -0.4% v -0.4%e
- (CN) China Nov New Yuan Loans beats (CNY): 852.7B v 655.0Be
- (CN) China Nov Aggregate Financing (CNY): 1.15T v 0.9Te
- (CN) China Nov Money supply misses; M2 Money Supply Y/Y: 12.3% v 12.5%e; M1 Money Supply Y/Y: 3.2% v 3.3%e; M0 Money Supply Y/Y: 3.5% v 4.0%e
- (HK) Hong Kong Q3 Industrial Production Y/Y: -1.8% v +2.2% prior (first drop in 1 year
- (HK) Hong Kong Q3 PPI Y/Y: +1.3% v -0.4% prior (first rise in almost 3 years)
- (RU) Russia Oct Trade Balance: $13.6b V $11.6Be; Exports: $40.5b V $39.2Be; Imports: $26.9b V $27.2Be
- (IT) Italy Nov Final CPI M/M: -0.2% v -0.2% prelim; Y/Y: 0.2% v 0.2% prelim; CPI Ex Tobacco: 107.0 v 107.2 prior
- (EU) Euro Zone Oct Industrial Production M/M: 0.1% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 0.7% v 0.7%e

Fixed Income:
- None seen

Indices [FTSE 100 -1.6% at 6,360,
DAX -1.2% at 9,744, CAC-40 -1.3% at 4,168, IBEX-35 -1.3% at 10,291, FTSE MIB -1.5% at 18,917, SMI -1.3% at 8,940, S&P 500 Futures -0.5% at 2,012]

- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: Equity markets open lower following mixed session on Thursday and weak US close; DAX declines amid losses in shares of BASF and Commerzbank; Greek markets open slightly lower, then pare losses; Resource-related shares generally lower amid weaker China industrial production and lower oil prices; German copper producer Aurubis rises on better than expected results; Danone declines as the firm plans to keep medical nutritional unit; UK homebuilder Bellway notes slowing in rate of private reservations, UK bank stress tests results due on Tuesday, Dec 16th. French banks in focus as Fitch may comment on France's rating

By Sector
- Basic Materials/Resources
[Hargreaves Services HSP.UK -12% (energy services firm, cautious outlook), Aurubis NDA.DE +2% (Q4 results above ests)]
- Consumer Staples [Danone BN.FR -1% (abandons sale of medical nutritional unit)]
- Consumer Discretionary [D'ieteren DIE.BE -8% (impairment charge), Hugo Boss BOSS.DE -3% (share placement), Bellway BWY.UK -2% (cautious outlook), Kering KER.FR -1% (new CEO at Gucci unit); USG People +1.5% (strategy update, acquisition) ]
- Industrials [Carillion CLLN.UK -4% (convertible bond offering), BASF BAS.DE -3% (broker commentary), Airbus AIR.FR -1% (follow-through selling), Fiat Chrysler FCA.IT -1% (follow-through selling)]
- Financials [Commerzbank CBK.DE -2% (renewed speculation related to US settlement) ]
- Energy [Drax DRX.UK -11% (broker commentary, proposed regulatory changes), CGG CGG.FR -4.5% (follow-through selling) ]
- Stoxx50 Sectors [Energy -1.8%, Basic Materials -1.7%, Industrials -1.3%, Utilities -1.2%, Consumer Non-Cyclical -1.2%, Technology -1.2%, Telecom -0.9%, Consumer Cyclical -0.9%, Financials -0.9%]

- BoJ said to reject addition of stimulus to ease blow to CPI from lower oil

- IEA again cut its 2015 demand growth forecast by another 230K bpd to 0.9M bpd (4th cut in 5 months). It noted that the sharp decline in oil prices would not hit production and boost demand in the short-term.
- India Central Bank Chief Rajan: to discuss appropriate timeline for medium term inflation target of 2-6%

- Relatively quiet European session as oil prices remained soft (WTI trades below $59/barrel just ahead of NY morning)
- The USD/JPY pair moved off its Asian session highs above the 199 handle on reports BoJ would reject addition of stimulus to ease blow to CPI from lower oil
- Focus turns to Sunday's Lower House elections in Japan. Polls have indicated PM Abe's ruling party would win an overwhelming two-thirds of the lower house seats, leaving the markets with the impression that simulative Abenomics to continue. Dealers were debating whether the current level of the USD/JPY has the results already 'baked in'
- EUR/CHF cross edged closer to retesting the 1.2000 floor; last at 1.2008 (lowest level since Sept 2012)

**Political/In the Papers:
- (US) House passed $1.1T govt spending bill, voting result 219-206; Senate passed interim 2-day spending bill to fund the government; Senate expected to vote on the $1.1T bill in 'coming days' and a vote could happen as soon as Friday.

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (UK) UK Sovereign Debt Rating published by S&P, Fitch
- (FR) France Sovereign Debt Rating published by Fitch
- (ZA) South Africa Sovereign Debt Rating published by S&P and Fitch
- 06:00 (IT) Italy Fin Min Padoan with EU Commissioner Hill
- 06:00 (IR) Ireland Oct Trade Balance: No ets v 3.3B prior
- 06:00 (BR) Brazil Oct Retail Sales M/M: 0.5%e v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 1.0%e v 0.5% prior
- 06:00 (BR) Brazil Oct Broad Retail Sales M/M: 1.3%e v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: -3.2%e v 1.2% prior
- 06:00 (EU) ECB Announcement related to LTRO repayments vs. 12.0Be
- 06:05 (UK) DMO to sell combined 5.0B in 1-month, 3-month and 6-month Bills (1.0B, 2.0B and 2.0B respectively)

- 06:30 (IN) India Forex w/e Dec 5th: No est v $316.3B prior
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (IN) India Nov CPI Y/Y: 4.4%e v 5.5% prior
- 07:00 (IN) India Oct Industrial Production Y/Y: 2.5%e v 2.5% prior

- 07:00 (IS) Iceland Nov Unemployment Rate: No est v 3.2% prior
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Nov M3 Money Supply M/M: 0.0%e v 0.7% prior; Y/Y: 7.9%e v 7.7% prior
- 08:00 (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) announces upcoming bond auctio
- 08:15 (US) Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 08:30 (US) Nov PPI Final Demand M/M: -0.1%e v +0.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.4%e v 1.5% prior
- 08:30 (US) Nov PPI Ex Food and Energy M/M: 0.1%e v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 1.8%e v 1.8% prior

- 08:30 (CA) Canada Nov Teranet/National Bank HPI M/M: No est v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: No est v 5.4% prior; House Price index: No est v 167.99 prior
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Oct Industrial Production M/M: +0.7%e v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: 2.5%e v 3.0% prior; Manufacturing Production Y/Y: 3.9%e v 4.8% prior
- 09:55 (US) Dec Preliminary University of Michigan Confidence: 89.5e v 88.8 prior
- 15:00 (MX) Mexico Nov Total Formal Job Creation: +117.7Ke v +172.1K prior
- (CO) Colombia Central Bank's Economists Survey
- (CO) Colombia Central Bank Monetary Policy Minutes

- Sunday: Japan Lower House election


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