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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Risk aversion pops up as the Grinch to steal year-end holiday cheer; Russia aggressive rate hike fails to inspire lasting FX gains


Tue, 16 Dec 2014 5:21 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- Russian Central Bank shocked the Ruble to a 10% spike after a surprise 650bps rate hike to curb inflationary pressures from the weaker currency and prevent more outflows.; Ruble currency unable to hold onto gains and hits fresh record lows
- China flash Manufacturing PMI contracted for the first time in 7 months (49.5 vs. 49.8e)
- RBA Dec Minutes reiterates view that most prudent course to be rate stability
- Major European PMI data mixed (France remains in contraction while both Germany and overall Euro Zone stays in growth territory)
- UK Nov CPI registers its lowest annual reading since Sept 2002
- Germany Dec ZEW Survey registers its 2nd straight month of improvement
- Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) again delays the timing of the first potential rate hike

**Economic data***
- (FR) France Dec Preliminary PMI mixed; Manufacturing PMI (misses): 47.9 v 48.6e; Services PMI (beats): 49.8 v 48.5e; Composite PMI: 49.1 v 48.3e
- (SE) Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) left its Repo Rate unchanged at 0.00% (as expected) but pushed back its view on 1st potential rate hike
- (DE) Germany Dec Preliminary PMI data mixed; Manufacturing PMI (beats): 51.2 v 50.3e; Services PMI (misses): 51.4 v 52.5e; Composite PMI: 51.4 v 52.3e
- (EU) Euro Zone Dec Preliminary PMI data beats; Manufacturing PMI: 50.8 v 50.5e; Services PMI: 51.9 v 51.5e; Composite PMI: 51.7 v 51.5e
- (UK) Nov CPI data soft; M/M: -0.3% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 1.0% v 1.2%e; CPI Core Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.5%e
- (UK) Nov RPI M/M: -0.2% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 2.0% v 2.2%e; RPI Ex Mort Interest Payments (RPIX) Y/Y: 2.0% v 2.3%e; Retail Price Index: 257.1 v 257.7e
- (DE) Germany Dec ZEW Survey beats; Current Situation Survey: 10.0 v 5.0e; Expectations Survey: 34.9 v 20.0e

Fixed Income:
- (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) steady; sold 2.55B vs. 1.5-2.5B indicated range in 3-month and 9-month Bills
- Sold 728M in 3-month Bills; Avg Yield: 0.200% v 0.073%; Bid-to-cover: 3.17x v 3.14x prior
- Sold 1.82B in 9-month Bills; Avg Yield: 0.373% v 0.296%; Bid-to-cover: 2.69x v 1.77x prior

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
**Equities**
Indices [FTSE 100 +0.6% at 6,219, DAX +0.7% at 9,405, CAC-40 +0.4% at 4,022, IBEX-35 +0.2% at 9,906, FTSE MIB +1.3% at 18,330, SMI -0.5% at 8,667, S&P 500 Futures +0.3% at 1,989]

- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: Equity markets open slightly higher following sharp declines on Monday; Wed's Fed decision and events in Russia in focus; DAX receives some support from ZEW data; Russia MICEX declines over 7%; Greek markets open slightly lower; Euro zone PMI generally in line, China PMI below ests; UK banks open generally higher following release of BoE stress test results then pare gains; Resource related shares pare losses; Repsol bids $8.3B for Canada's Talisman; BT chooses EE as its merger partner ; Large German retailer Metro's profits above ests; UK CPI data keeps deflation theme on the table

By Sector
- Industrials [GEA Group G1A.DE -3.5% (broker commentary)]
- Consumer Discretionary [Puma PUM.DE +1% (renewed speculation related to controlling shareholder)
- Energy [Repsol REP.ES -3% (made bid for Talisman)]
- Technologies [Imagination Technologies IMG.UK +9% (reaffirmed outlook)]
- Financials [Raiffeisen Bank RBI.AT -4% (concerns related to Russia); Optimal Payments OPAY.UK +5% (commented on share price weakness)]
- Telecom [Deutsche Bank DTE.DE +1%, Orange ORA.FR +2.5% (BT to bid for EE)]
- Stoxx50 sectors [Energy -0.9%, Financials -0.2%, Basic Materials -0.2%, Utilities -0.1%; Telecom +0.4%, Consumer Cyclical +0.3%, Consumer Non-Cyclical +0.2%, Technology +0.2%, Industrials flat]

**Speakers**
- Russia Central Bank (CBR) Gov Nabiullina stated that RUB currency (Ruble) had weakened due to lower oil prices and lack of access to international capital markets for companies and banks. She stressed that the central bank raised rates to limit negative effects. Weaker Ruble currency has mixed effects on the economy. She noted RUB currency is undervalued but needed time to find its equilibrium rate
- Bank of England (BOE) Bank Stress-Test Results gave a clean bill of health to sector (Only Cooperative Bank was the only one to fall below the 4.5% capital threshold) and saw no system wide macroprudential actions needed
- BOE Gov Carney noted that the stamp duty change and low rate might revive housing momentum. Sharp oil price decline could support economic growth but pushes CPI expectations lower creating a stability risk
- Russia govt declined to comment on Central Bank's actions only noting that the Central Bank was independent
- Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) statement noted the the Repo rate needed to remain at 0% for 'slightly' longer period than earlier forecast and new saw the first potential rate hike in H2 of 2016 (prior view was mid 2016). It also noted it was preparing further measures than can be used to make monetary policy more expansionary; such measures if needed could be presented at next monetary policy meeting.
- Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) gov Ingves post rate decision press conference reiterated his view that interest rates to remain at 0% (zero) until inflation was 2.0%
- ZEW Economist noted that its should be aware current optimism was fuelled by factors that might change even over the short term. Low oil prices and expectation of a lower EUR currency were the main driver behind the better expectation survey. Confidence in German economy seemed to be slowly returning
- Finland National Audit Office: Govt to miss fiscal targets and fail to stabilize public finances before the end of its term in April
- Turkey Econ Min Zeybekci: No need to be haste on TRY currency (Lira) rate; will settle within market dynamics
- Indonesia Central Bank (BI) confirmed FX intervention and reiterated view to stay in market to stabilize the IDR currency (Rupiah) but was not targeting any specific IDR level
- India Trade Secretary Kher stated that he was not yet concerned about the decline in INR currency (Rupee); USD/INR between 60-62 was a good range for exporters. He added that a persistent fall in India Rupee would be a matter of concern and the widening of Trade deficit due to gold was a concern
- Russia Energy Min Novak reiterated view that Russia would maintain its current oil production

**Currencies***
- FX market volatility remained the norm in the session particularly among emerging market currencies (especially ones exposed to the impact of falling oil and commodity prices). FX also particularly ssensitive to the upcoming Fed meeting and possible change in language. The year-end liquidity conditions were also playing a role in volatility.
- Russia's RUB currency (Ruble) gave back all of its post rate hike gains (USD/RUB was back above 66.50 area after hitting a Asian session low of 58.23 following the surprise, aggressive 650bps rate hike out of Russia). Russia central bank conceded that RUB currency was undervalued but needed time to find its equilibrium rate
- The risk aversion flows in the session heightened by emerging market currencies provided safe haven flows into JPY currency and govt bonds. The USD/JPY fell to a 1-month low below 116.25 while numerous European 10-year yields hit fresh record lows (among them Germany, Austria, Ireland)
- The USD also battered by some profit-taking given its recent uptrend. Some dealers noted the recent decline in oil prices might provide the Fed doves with courage to hold off any language change and thus curtail the USD's upside potential into the FOMC announcement on Wednesday
- The GBP currency initially hit session lows after softer than expected CPI data. UK Nov CPI hit a 12-year low at 1.0%. GBP/USD slumped to test 1.5613 before fully recovering above the 1.57 handle (data was in line with BOE view on inflation).

**Political/In the Papers:
- (GR) Greece Fin Min Stournaras: Greek political crisis has become more serious, standoff is threatening the Greek economic recovery

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (US) Federal Reserve FOMC begins 2-day meeting
- (EU) EU's Mogherini meets Ukraine's Leaders in Kiev
- 05:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to sell 3-month Bills
- 05:30 (BE) Belgium Debt Agency to sell combined 1.9-2.3B in 3-Month and 12-Month Bills
- 05:45 (UK) BOE Gov Carney at event
- 07:00 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Gov Tombini speaks at Brazil Senate
- 06:00 (TR) Turkey to sell 2015 Zero Bonds; Yield: % v 9.55% prior; bid-to-cover: x v 2.38x prior
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (RU) Russia announces weekly OFZ bond auction
- 07:45 (US) ICSC Chain Store Sales
- 08:00 (HU) Hungary Central Bank (NBH) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Base Rate unchanged at 2.10%
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Nov CPI Core M/M: 0.0%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 0.5%e v 0.2% prior
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Nov Average Gross Wages M/M: 1.5%e v 2.1% prior; Y/Y: 3.6%e v 3.8% prior
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Nov Employment M/M: 0.1%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 0.8%e v 0.8% prior
- 08:15 (US) Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 08:30 (US) Nov Housing Starts: 1.040Me v 1.009M prior; Building Permits: 1.065Me v 1.092M prior (revised from 1.080M)
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Oct Manufacturing Sales M/M: -0.4%e v +2.1% prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Oct Int'l Securities Transactions: C$4.0Be v C$4.4B prior
- 08:55 (US) Weekly Redbook Sales
- 09:00 (EU) Weekly ECB Forex Reserves
- 09:15 (BR) Brazil to sell I/L 2019, 2023, 2030, 2040 and 2050 Bonds
- 09:45 (US) Dec Preliminary Markit Manufacturing PMI: 55.3e v 54.8 prior
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Weekly International Reserves: No est v $192.3B prior
- 10:00 (SE) Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) Skingsley
- 10:30 (EU) ECB's Nouy (head of SSM) speaks in Paris
- 11:00 (UK) PM Cameron questioned by Lawmakers on Energy, Radicalization
- 11:00 (UR) Ukraine to sell 2-Year UAH and USD denominated and 10-year Bonds
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 4-Week Bills
- 12:30 (MX) Mexico to sell 1-month, 3-month and 6-month bills
- 12:30 (MX) Mexico to sell 3-year bond
- 16:00 (KR) South Korea Nov PPI Y/Y: No est v -0.7% prior
- 16:30 (US) Weekly API Crude Oil Inventories
- 18:50 (JP) Japan Nov Trade Balance: -1.007Te v -0.7T prior; Adjusted Trade Balance: -991.4Be v -977.5B prior; Exports Y/Y: 7.6%e v 9.6% prior; Imports Y/Y: 2.9%e v 3.1% prior (revised from 2.7%)




 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
US/JP- Holiday
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13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes

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Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


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