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Wednesday December 17, 2014 - 11:16:45 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com EU Mid-Market Update: Russian Ruble currency tries to stabilize; focus turns to FOMC statement


Wed, 17 Dec 2014 5:22 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- Japan Nov Trade Deficit narrower than expected (-892B vs. -992Be) but components disappoint (Exports Y/Y: 4.9% vs. 7.0%e and Imports Y/Y: -1.7% vs. +1.6%e)
- Focus on Fed and if any change to "considerable time" language
- Emerging European market currencies (Ruble, Zloty, Lira) trying to stabilize while other remains (ZAR) remain soft ahead of FOMC decision
- Euro Zone Nov Final CPI YoY reading matches 5-year low at 0.3%

**Economic data***
- (TH) Thailand Central Bank (BOT) left its Benchmark Interest Rate unchanged at 2.00% (as expected)

- (UK) Bank of England (BOE) Minutes: Voted 7-2 to leave interest rates unchanged at 0.50% (5th straight month); Members Weale, McCafferty again called for 25bps rate hike.
- (UK) Nov Jobless Claims Change (better): -26.9K v -20.0Ke; Claimant Count Rate: 2.7% v 2.7%e
- (UK) Oct Average Weekly Earnings (beats) 3M/Y: 1.4% v 1.2%e; Weekly Earnings ex Bonus 3M/Y: 1.6% v 1.6%e
- (UK) Oct ILO Unemployment Rate 3M/3M: 6.0% v 5.9%; Employment Change 3M/3M: +115K v +137Ke
- (EU) Euro Zone Nov Final CPI Y/Y: 0.3% v 0.3%e; CPI Core Y/Y: 0.7% v 0.7%e
- (EU) Euro Zone Labour Costs Y/Y: 1.3% v 1.4% prior
- (CH) Swiss Dec Credit Suisse ZEW Expectations Survey: -4.9 v -7.6 prior
- (BR) Brazil Dec IGP-M Inflation (2nd Preview): 0.7% v 0.7%e

Fixed Income:
- (SE) Sweden sold total SEK7.9B vs. SEK15B indicated in 3-month and 6-month Bills
- (EU) ECB allotted 22.4B in 3-month LTRO operation at fixed 0.05% vs. 12.0Be

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
**Equities**
Indices [Stoxx50 -1%,
FTSE 100 -0.5% at 6,293, DAX -0.8% at 9,480, CAC-40 -0.6% at 4,067, IBEX-35 -1% at 9,961, FTSE MIB -1.3% at 18,393, SMI -0.4% at 8,756, S&P 500 Futures +0.6% at 1,975]

- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: Equity markets open lower following sharp gains on Tuesday, with today's Fed decision, Greek election process and Rouble volatility in focus; Greek equities rise over 1%; Philips to acquire US-based Volcano at approx 57% premium; Cautious outlook from GE weighs on Siemens; London ADRs for Gazprom and Sberbank gain following sharp losses on Tuesday; Resource related companies continue to trade with heavy tone

By Sector
- Technology
[Philips PHIA.NL -3% (made bid for Volcano Corp); Xaar XAR.UK +13% (upbeat outlook)
- Consumer Discretionary [Heidelberger Druck HDD.DE -3% (speculation related to added job cuts), WPP WPP.UK -1% (new Chairman designate); Hermes RMS.FR +6% (LVMH distributes stake to shareholders), Dixons Carphone DC.UK +3% (Q2 LFL sales +9%)
- Industrials [Siemens SIE.DE -1.5% (cautious GE outlook), Alstom ALO.FR -1.5% (settlement talks with US DoJ), Airbus AIR.FR -1% (management change) ]
- Stoxx50 sectors [Industrials -0.7%, Technology -0.4%, Energy -0.4%, Consumer Non-Cyclical -0.4%, Basic Materials -0.3%, Telecom -0.2%; Consumer Cyclical +0.8%, Utilities +0.2%, Financials +0.1%]

**Speakers**
- BOE minutes were again a 7-2 vote on interest rates for the 5th straight month
. BOE reiterated CPI expected to move below 1% in Dec as the overall inflation outlook was weaker than assumed in Nov. Further pay rises was consistent with 2% CPI target, most believe faster pay growth was needed to meet target. The recent oil price decline was viewed as a net stimulus for UK economy.
- Russia Finance Ministry starts selling up to $7.0B in foreign currency on market; says RUB currency (Ruble) is very undervalued
- Russia said to have trouble fulfilling its 2015-17 budget
- Greece PM Samaras sent a letter to Parliament asking lawmakers to protect country's place in EU and appoint a President
- Spain Budget Min Montoro said to be preparing financial rescue for autonomous regions by lengthening amortization term
- ECB's Nouy (head of SSM): RUB currency (Ruble) weakening to make markets nervous for a time; European corporate exposure to Russia had no reason for 'fear'
- Germany presented its 2015 debt issuance plans in which it would sell 185.5B in conventional bonds and Bubills (lowest amount since 2002)
- German Constitutional Court ruled inheritance tax breaks were unconstitutional and must be revised by July 2016 (**Note: Decision was related to tax breaks of family-run firms)
- Spain Budget Min Montoro: Would like to cut sales tax, but Spain will not lower sales tax; will follow EU guidance
- Turkey Econ Min Zeybekci: No need for intervention nor concern on TRY currency (Lira)
- India FY15 gold imports not to cross the 1,000-1,500 tons

**Currencies***
- Emerging European market currencies (Ruble, Zloty and Lira) stabilized in the session. Russia Finance Ministry helped overall sentiment after it announced it was selling approx. $7.0B in foreign currency on market and added that the RUB currency (Ruble) was very undervalued. The Polish Zloty and Turkish Lira firmed in sympathy
- The USD was firmer against the major pairs ahead of the FOMC rate decision with focus on whether the Fed would amend its "considerable time" language

**Political/In the Papers:
- (RU) Russia Finance Ministry: Not planning to implement capital controls
- (EU) Fitch downgrades EFSF debt rating following last week's downgrade of France rating; affirms ESM's AAA rating
- (JP) Japan Econ Amari: Govt aims to compile emergency economic measures by around Dec 27th
- (KW) Kuwait Oil Min: OPEC members are in agreement that no emergency meeting is needed; next scheduled OPEC meeting is in June

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (GR) Greece holds first round of Presidential election
- (EU) EU Environment Ministers meet in Brussels
- (IL) Israel Dec CPI Forecast: No est v 0.7% prior
- (IL) Israel Nov M1 Money Supply Y/Y: No est v 30.7% prior
- (GR) Greece Debt Agency (PDMA) to sell 1.0B in 13-week Bills
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Dec 12th: No est v 7.3% prior
- 07:00 (CZ) Czech Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave both Repurchase Rate and EUR/CHF floor unchanged at 0.05% and 'around 27.00' respectively
- 07:00 (UK) PM Cameron weekly question time in House of Commons
- 07:00 (RU) Russia cancelled weekly OFZ Bond auction
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Nov Sold Industrial Output M/M: -6.9%e v +3.5% prior; Y/Y: 1.1%e v 1.6% prior; Construction Output Y/Y: -3.5%e v -1.0% prior
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Nov PPI M/M: -0.2%e v -0.3% prior; Y/Y: -1.2%e v -1.2% prior
- 08:00 (RU) Russia Nov Real Retail Sales M/M: -0.6%e v +2.3% prior; Y/Y: 1.1%e v 1.7% prior
- 08:00 (RU) Russia Nov Unemployment Rate: 5.2%e v 5.1% prior
- 08:00 (RU) Russia Nov Real Disposable Income: 1.0%e v 2.1% prior
- 08:00 (RU) Russia Nov Real Wages Y/Y: 0.1%e v 0.3% prior
- 08:00 (RU) Russia Nov Investment In Productive Capacity Y/Y: -3.2%e v +2.9% prior
- 08:00 (RU) Russia Nov PPI M/M: 0.2%e v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 6.5%e v 5.1% prior
- 08:15 (US) Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 08:15 (CZ) Czech Central Bank gov Singer to hold post rate decision press conference
- 08:30 (US) Nov CPI M/M: -0.1%e v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 1.4%e v 1.7% prior
- 08:30 (US) Nov CPI Ex Food and Energy M/M: 0.1%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.8%e v 1.8% prior

- 08:30 (US) Nov CPI NSA: 236.369e v 237.433 prior; CPI Core Index SA: 239.485e v 239.162 prior
- 08:30 (US) Q3 Current Account Balance: -$97.5Be v -$98.5B prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Oct Wholesale Trade Sales M/M: No est v 1.8% prior
- 09:00 (US) The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds a closed door meeting
- 09:30 (BR) Brazil Weekly Currency Flows
- 09:45 (UK) Chancellor Osborne questioned by Treasury Select Committee
- 10:30 (US) Weekly DOE Crude Oil Inventories
- 12:30 (DE) German Fin Min Schaeuble gives Speech on Financial Crisis-Fighting in Berlin
- 14:00 (US) FOMC Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave both upper and lower bound of Interest Rates unchanged between 0.00-0.25%
- 14:30 (US) Fed Chair Yellen holds post rate decision press conference

- 16:45 (NZ) New Zealand Q3 GDP Q/Q: No est v 0.7% prior; Y/Y: No est v 3.9% prior; Q3 YTD Current Account GDP Ratio: No est v -2.5% prior
- 22:35 (JP) Japan to sell 3-Month Bill
- 22:45 (JP) Japan to sell 20-Year JGB Bonds
- (MX) Mexico Banamex Survey of Economists



 

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Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
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Wed 22 Nov
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15:30 US- EIA Crude
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


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