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Thursday December 18, 2014 - 06:19:03 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com Asian Mid-session Update: Yellen's dollar rally helps Nikkei rebound; Yuan slumps on reports of more flexible currency regime - Source TradeTheNews.com

- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND Q3 GDP Q/Q: 1.0% V 0.7%E; Y/Y: 3.2% V 3.3%E - (CN) CHINA NOV NEW HOME PRICES M/M: PRICES RISE IN 0 OF 70 CITIES V 0 PRIOR; Y/Y: PRICES RISE IN 2 OF 70 CITIES V 3 PRIOR ***Index Snapshot (as of 03:30 GMT)***- Nikkei225 +2.6%, S&P/ASX +1.0%, Kospi -0.4%, Shanghai Composite -0.3%, Hang Seng +1.3%, Mar S&P500 flat at 2,008***Commodities/Fixed Income***- Feb gold +0.3% at $1,197, Jan crude oil +0.2% at $56.58/brl, Copper flat at $2.87/lb- SLV: iShares Silver Trust ETF daily holdings fall to 10,544 tonnes from 10,606 tonnes prior (lowest since Sept 13th) - (JP) Japan investors sold net 610B in foreign bonds v sold net 847B in prior week; Foreign investors bought net 120B in Japan stocks v bought 482B in prior week - JGB: (JP) Japan's MoF sells 1.10T in 1.2% (1.4% prior) 20-year JGBs; Avg yield: 1.145% v 1.276% prior; bid-to-cover: 3.71x v 2.88x prior - (CN) PBoC won't conduct open market operations (OMO) in today's session (7th consecutive halt); Net zero position this week v injected CNY5B prior - (CN) Yield of 7-day govt bond repurchase rate closed at 10.25% last night; Press citing massive money demand from IPO subscriptions ***Market Focal Points/Key Themes/FX***- Nikkei225 is leading the regional rally as remarks from Fed Chair Yellen on policy intentions in 2015 have finally helped arrest the downward reversal in USD/JPY. FOMC replaced the "considerable time" component of its statement with the pledge to be "patient in beginning to normalize the stance of monetary policy" but also acknowledged further improvement in labor market conditions. A dovish dissent from Kocherlakota was also countered by hawkish dissents from Fisher and Plosser in a 7-3 vote. In terms of economic projections, the Fed raised 2014 outlook and lowered unemployment estimates for the next 3 years, but also lowered median fed funds rate forecasts (dots) for 2015, 2016, and 2017 by 20bps, 37.5bps, and 7.5bps respectively. The most concrete market reaction came during Yellen's testimony when she said that "patient" means the Fed will not begin normalization process 'at least for the next couple of meetings', and in the Q/A Yellen affirmed that a "couple" means "two". Traders took that remark to mean that the liftoff in rates could take place as early as in April - the 3rd in the sequence of upcoming FOMC meetings - sending the dollar sharply higher. USD/JPY hit a high of 119 in early Asia dealing - up 200pips from immediate post-FOMC lows - while EUR/USD and AUD/USD caved 150pips and 120pips respectively to 1.2320 and 0.8110.- Chinese Yuan was also a notable mover against the dollar, as offshore trade moved above 6.21 level - the weakest Yuan level since late July. Coupled with firmer dollar, pressure on CNY was aided by reports the govt will be open to a more flexible fx rate and more willing to allow the currency to depreciate. Note that up until recently, possibility of greater flexibility on Chinese exchange rate would have led to a firmer CNY. November housing figures remained weak, with all-70 new home prices falling for the 7th consecutive month by -0.6%, albeit at a slower pace than -0.8% prior. On the year however, price decline accelerated to -3.6% v -2.5% prior. Despite evidence of the contrary in October, November, and early December economic data in China, Q4 Beige Book suggested the economy is stabilizing as wages and job growth was stable and profitability recovered. Moreover, Beige Book recommended that the PBoC hold off on further easing.- Down under, RBA Quarterly Bulletin research notes said the current recovery in non-mining investment is weaker than in 1980s and 1990s, but still expected to pick up as growth in domestic demand recovers. RBA added that while some 60K jobs would be lost in resource construction sector, they will be absorbed by other sectors as skills are transferrable to residential and civil construction. In New Zealand, Q3 GDP came in above estimates at Q/Q: 1.0% V 0.7%E. Private consumption improved to 1.5% v 1.3% prior (revised up from 1.2%), and the decline in exports eased to -0.4% v -4.2% prior (revised down from -2.9%).***Equities***US markets/ADRs: - ZAGG: Raises 2014 Guidance; Sees EBITDA $30-32M v $15-20M prior forecast; Rev $250-255M v $232Me (prior $225-235M); +17.3% afterhours- TTPH: Announces Positive Top-line Results from Phase 3 IGNITE 1 Clinical Trial of Eravacycline in Complicated Intra-abdominal Infections; +14.5% afterhours- JBL: Reports Q1 $0.55 v $0.47e, R$4.55B v $4.32Be; +5.6% afterhours- AKS: Guides Q4 $0.05-0.10 v $0.04e; +5.2% afterhours- ORCL: Reports Q2 $0.69 v $0.68e, R$9.60B v $9.54Be; Guides Q3 Non-GAAP EPS $0.69-0.74 v $0.73e (constant currency), Non-GAAP Rev +4-8% y/y v +4.5%e (implies R$9.7-10.1B v $9.73Be) - conf call; +5.1% afterhours- APOG: Reports Q3 $0.47 v $0.48e, R$244.4M v $232Me; +0.9% afterhours- MRO: Expects 2015 Capital Budget down 20% at $4.3-4.5B; +0.5% afterhours- AMGN: Raises quarterly dividend by 30% to $0.79/shr, implied yield 1.9%; +0.4% afterhours- STLD: Guides Q4 $0.38-0.42 (adj) v $0.45e; -0.4% afterhours- KEX: Cuts Q4 $1.10-1.20 v $1.35e ($1.30-1.40 prior), Cuts FY14 $4.84-4.94 v $5.12e ($5.04-5.14 prior); -6.5% afterhoursNotable movers by sector:- Consumer Discretionary: Fairfax Media FXJ.AU +3.6% (close to merger); Flight Centre Limited FLT.AU -7.9% (cuts guidance)- Financials: Emperor Capital Group 717.HK -1.2% (FY14 results)- Energy: Strike Energy STX.AU +9.5% (issues update on gas project)- Industrials: Zhejiang Yonggui Electric Equipment 300351.CN +5.2% (awarded major contract); Transpacific Industries Group TPI.AU -5.4% (analyst action); Elders ELD.AU +4.8% (CEO comments on company's progress); Toyota Motor 7203.JP +3.3%, Honda Motor 7267.JP +2.0%, Nissan Motor 7201.JP +2.9% (Yen weaker after FMOC decision)- Healthcare: China Medical System Holdings 867.HK +5.3% (acquires license for drugs) - Source TradeTheNews.com

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
US/JP- Holiday
All Day flash PMIs
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes

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Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


John M. Bland, MBA
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