User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Thursday December 18, 2014 - 11:44:20 GMT
Trade the News Staff - www.global-view.com/forex-services/TTN/

Share This Story:
| | Email

TradeTheNews.com EU Mid-Market Update: SNB moves to negative rates putting pressure on ECB to act on QE


Thu, 18 Dec 2014 5:17 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- Swiss National Bank (SNB) moves to negative interest rates on sight deposits
(maintained its floor in EUR/CHF cross at 1.2000); puts pressure on ECB to enact QE
- Germany Dec IFO Survey mixed but noted a change in trend in German economy was increasing beconing positive
- UK Nov Retail Sales beats expectations aided by black Friday sales

**Economic data***
- (CH) Swiss Nov Trade Balance (beats)
(CHF): 3.9B v 2.9Be; Real Exports M/M: -0.1% v +5.1% prior; Real Imports M/M: -3.3% v +2.9% prior
- (SE) Sweden Dec Confidence data beats; Consumer Confidence: 99.0 v 98.0e; Manufacturing Confidence: 106.4 v 105.8e; Economic Tendency Survey: 105.8 v 102.9e v 103.6 prior
- (NL) Netherlands Nov Unemployment Rate: 8.0% v 8.0%e
- (NL) Netherlands Dec Consumer Confidence Index: -7 v -5e
- (HK) Hong Kong Nov Unemployment Rate: 3.3% v 3.3%e
- (TW) Taiwan Central Bank (CBC) left its Benchmark Interest Rate unchanged at 1.875% (14th straight pause in current tightening cycle)
- (DE) Germany Dec IFO Survey mixed; Business Climate Survey (inline): 105.5 v 105.5e; Current Assessment Survey (miss): 110.0 v 110.4e; Expectations Survey (beats): 101.1 v 100.5e
- (UK) Nov Retail Sales Ex Auto (beats) M/M: 1.7% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 6.9% v 4.5%e
- (UK) Nov Retail Sales (including Auto) (beats) M/M: 1.6% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 6.4% v 4.4%e

Fixed Income:
- (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) auction steady; sold total 2.616B vs. 1.5-2.5B in 2019, 2023 and 2024 bonds

- Sold 904.5M in 4.60% July 2019 Bono; Avg Yield 0.875% v 1.402% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.03x v 2.32x prior; Max Yield 0.896% v 1.412% prior;
- Sold 587.5M in 4.40% Oct 2023 bono; Avg Yield: 1.577% v 1.931% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.32x v 3.35x prior; Max Yield: 1.588% v 1.941% prior
- Sold 1.12B in 2.75% Oct 2024 bono; Avg Yield 1.731% (record low) v 1.840% prior; Bid-to-cover 1.84x v 2.14x prior; Maximum Yield: 1.752% v 1.850% prior

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
**Equities**
Indices [Stoxx50 +0.9%
, FTSE 100 +0.6% at 6,374, DAX +1.8% at 9,728, CAC-40 +2% at 4,201, IBEX-35 +2% at 10,270, FTSE MIB +1.5%, SMI +1.7% at 8,926, S&P 500 Futures +1% at 2027]

- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: Equity markets open higher as traders assess recent policy moves by the Fed and SNB; Gains on the FTSE 100 capped by ex-dividends; Greek markets open slightly lower with elections in focus; Russian equities trade higher amid comments from Putin; German IFO data mixed; Resource related companies trade higher amid rise in oil prices

By Sector
- Technology
[ARM Holdings ARM.UK +3% (broker commentary), SAP SAP.DE +1.5% (results from Oracle)]
- Telecom [QSC QSC.DE +7% (M&A speculation) ]
- Consumer Discretionary [Adidas ADS.DE -1% (broker commentary)]
- Industrials [BASF BAS.DE +1.5% (asset sale) ]
- Health Care [Bayer BAYN.DE +1.5%, Syngenta SYNN.CH +2% (speculated GMO approval in China)]
- Stoxx50 Sectors [Technology +2.1%, Industrials +2% Telecom +1.5%, Energy +1.5%, Consumer Cyclical +1.2%, Consumer Non-Cyclical +1.2%, Basic Materials +1.2%, Financials +1.2%, Utilities +0.5%]

**Speakers**
- Swiss National Bank (SNB) moved to negative interest rates on sight deposit account balances
at central bank over the exemption level. It reiterated view CHF currency (Franc Cap) remained "Key Policy Instrument" and was prepared to take further measures if necessary. Would intervene and buy unlimited quantities of foreign currency to defend the minimum exchange rate or take other measures if needed
- SNB chief Jordan: CHF currency strengthened against Euro in recent days; Russia development was major contributor for inflows. Negative rates to be set individually for account holders. Without FX floor in EUR/CHF, price stability would be serious compromised. Negative interest rates to support minimum FX rate
- German Chancellor Merkel commented in her Parliament ahead of today's EU Leader Summit that leaders would will discuss Ukraine. She reiterated euro crisis was under control but not yet overcome, recovery was still fragile
- Russia President Putin annual year-end media speech; Central bank and government were taking adequate measures; Oil might decline further. Hopes Ruble currency would continue recent rebound and its rise was 'unavoidable'
- German IFO Economists stated that the decline in oil prices and lower EUR currency were seasonal gifts to German economy
- Italy Economy Min Padoan: No risk of contagion from Greece's political situation
- Norway Central Bank (Norges) Gov Olsen stated that he saw no crisis on NOK currency (Krone) and that NOK weakness was a buffer
- Poland Fin Min Szczurek stated that he saw inflation below forecasts for both 2014 and 2015 but should not affect budget performance
- Hungary Central Bank Gov Matolcsy stated that it should keep Base Rate unchanged through 2015; At risk of 'financial attack'
- Swiss SECO Dec Economic Forecasts cuts its inflation forecast from both 2014 and 2015
- Russia govt submitted draft law on providing up to RUB1T in added capital for domestic banks
- China PBoC said to give short-term loans to banks today (**Note: The report comes as - China's 7-day repo rate has risen to highs not seen since Jan (up over 100bps)
- Saudi Oil Min Naimi stated that Global economic slowdown was behind oil's problem; reiterated oil market problem seen as temporary; Difficult if not impossible for OPEC and Saudi to cut production

**Currencies***
- The USD maintained a firm tone following the Wed FOMC decision
and language change. Better European data registered in the session did little to dent the greenback sentiment.
- The CHF currency was weaker after SNB introduced negative interest rates. The USD/CHF tested near 0.9850 (highest level in 26 months) while EUR/CHF approached the 1.21 area. The SNB move was seen to stem the safe-haven flows generating from the Russian currency crisis. Analysts also heightened that SNB move to negative rates increased the likelihood that ECB QE could come sooner than expected and be large and that the effective date of the negative sight deposit corresponded to the next ECB rate decision. The effect of the action eventually wore off as the CHF moved off its worst levels in the session. The timing of the announcement was a surprise to the markets but not the overall message.
- The RUB currency remained volatile as President Putin gave his annual address. Initially the RUB firmed as Russia pledged not to blow through its reserves but then steadily weakened as Putin hit upon other topics including Ukraine
- European yields continued to edge lower with numerous 10-year hitting fresh record lows (Italy, Spain, Austria, Belgium among them). The Germany 2-year yield negative for first time since Sept, amid introduction of negative rates by the SNB

**Political/In the Papers:
- (GR) Greece results from first round of Presidential election; Govt does not succeed in selecting a candidate; Vote tally stands at 160 votes in the 300 seat parliament (200 votes were required, requirement declines to 180 in third round of voting)
- (US) FOMC left its Funds Rate Target unchanged at 0.25%; Can be patient about raising interest rates; Fed dropped its "considerable time " language
- (US) Fed Chair Yellen: There is a wide range of views on the committee of when rate liftoff should occur; there is no pre-set timing for lift off, it remains data dependent
- (CN) China Nov new home prices decline for the 7th straight month (m/m: -0.6% vs. -0.8% prior)

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)
- 05:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to sell 12-month Bill
- 05:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to sell Floating Bond
- 05:30 (IE) Ireland Debt Agency (NTMA) to sell Bills
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Monthly Economic Survey
- 06:00 (IL) Israel Oct Manufacturing Production M/M: No est v 1.3% prior
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Nov PPI M/M: No est v -0.8% prior; Y/Y: No est v -1.2% prior
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (RO) Romania cancelled 4.75% 2019 Bond auction
- 07:00 (RU) Russia Gold and Forex Reserve w/e Dec 12th: No est v $416.2B prior
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Central Bank (NBP) Dec Minutes
- 08:15 (US) Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 08:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 295Ke v 294K prior; Continuing Claims: 2.44Me v 2.514M prior
- 08:30 (US) Weekly USDA Net Export Sales
- 09:00 (BE) Belgium Dec Consumer Confidence Index: No est v -14.0 prior
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Oct Retail Sales Y/Y: 4.4%e v 4.5% prior
- 09:15 (BR) Brazil to sell 2015, 2016 and 2018 Bills
- 09:45 (US) Dec Preliminary Markit Services PMI: 56.3e v 56.2 prior; Composite PMI: No est v 56.1 prior
- 10:00 (EU) EU Leaders begin 2-day Summit in Brussels (with ECB chief Draghi attending)
- 10:00 (US) Dec Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook: 26.0e v 40.8 prior
- 10:00 (US) Nov Leading Index: 0.6%e v 0.9% prior

- 10:30 (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories
- 11:00 (BR) Brazil Nov Total Formal Job Creation: -32.0Ke v -30.3K prior
- 11:00 (US) Treasury 2-year, 5-year and 7-year note announcement (2-year FRN as well)
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $16B in 5-Year TIPS Reopening
- 15:00 (US) API Monthly Statistical Report
- 19:05 (UK) Dec GfK Consumer Confidence: -2e v -2 prior
- (JP) Bank of Japan (BOJ) Monetary Policy Statement



 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!

The Amazing Trader includes:
  • Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
  • Live trading strategy sessions.
  • Market Updates with Trading Tools.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader


Trading Ideas for 20 November 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Mon 20 Nov
14:00 EZ- Draghi Speech
15:00 US- Leading Indicators
Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
US/JP- Holiday
All Day flash PMIs
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




TRADER ADVOCACY ARTICLES

Trader's Advocate Articles..

pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105