User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Friday August 26, 2005 - 18:35:49 GMT
BHF-Bank - www.bhf-bank.com

Share This Story:
| | Email

FX Briefing 26 August 2005

Highlights
- Favourable opinion polls for prime minister Koizumi support the yen
- Friendly economic data and German elections strengthen the euro

September promises to be eventful

Last week’s rapid recovery of the dollar to USD 1.2150 against the euro and JPY 110.50 against the yen was followed by a slight decline.

The Japanese equity market and with it the yen initially profited substantially from the improving opinion poll results for prime minister Koizumi. Especially foreign investors seem to welcome the prospects of the LDP’s reform-minded forces winning the upper hand in the upcoming elections to the lower house. In view of the new record highs in crude oil prices, volatile equity markets and the further deterioration in Japan’s trade balance, the USD-JPY rate lost momentum for some time but closed the week moving up to around JPY 109.50 again.

EUR-USD climbed, once again exceeding USD 1.23. This was attributed mainly to the improvement in the German economy, as confirmed by the ZEW indicator of economic sentiment and, with some reservations, also by the German ifo institute’s business climate index. The disappointing levels of new orders in the US durable goods industry were another reason. Last but not least the impending elections in Germany – like those in Japan – are considered to be feeding reform expectations and hence to be a driving factor.

The end of the summer
The calm summer session will be coming to an end soon. In London, the bank holiday next Monday will mark the end of the holiday season. One week later, the US will have its Labor Day weekend which marks the end of the driving season. The short week in between these long weekends will, however, bring many important indicators and a number of major events. And there is more to come: a glance at the calendar shows that the month of September has an exceptionally tight schedule of major political events.

First of all, there will be early elections in Japan and Germany on 11 and 18 September respectively. According to the latest opinion polls, prime minister Koizumi’s position might be strengthened. It seems as if the LDP’s conservative wing, which opposes the privatisation of Japan’s postal services, is being pushed into the sidelines whilst the party’s reform-minded forces might be gaining ground. In Germany, it rather seems as if the elections will lead to a change with the Christian Democrats taking over. Both these scenarios and the expected political change they imply have been welcomed by the markets.

On 25 September, one week after the elections in Germany, Poland will elect a new parliament (and a new president in October). At the moment, the opinion polls give the lead to the two opposition parties “The Citizen’s Platform”, which wants to implement radical tax cuts, and the “Law and Justice” party. The ruling “Democratic Left Alliance” is lagging far behind. However, it is currently trying to catch up by offering a reduction in value added tax, a difficult move given the country’s budgetary situation. As regards the currency markets, it will probably be rather important whether Poland holds or deviates from its course into the EMU, be it due to fundamental reservations (as brought forward by “Law and Justice”) or due to a lack of compliance with the EMU criteria. The EU integration process will be put to another test in the Danish referendum on the EU constitution to be held on 27 September.

In terms of international affairs, there will be quite a lot of material in September, too. The Chinese president Hu Jintao will visit the US, a meeting with president Bush is planned for 7 September. Above all the US representatives are expected to seize this opportunity in order to discuss the Chinese exchange rate policy and complain about “currency dumping”. Some market participants are currently toying with the idea that China might slightly loosen the reins in its forex policy, as a gift when visiting the US. Global economic relations will come to the fore again on 24 and 25 September with the annual meeting of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund in Washington. The meeting is expected once again to focus on current account imbalances in Asia and the US, and the effects of crude oil prices on the global economy are also very likely to be on the agenda.

As far as the latter topic is concerned, it should be noted that with the end of the driving season in the US, attention will shift from the gasoline inventories (rather low at the moment) to the (relatively ample) stocks in heating oil. The OPEC will meet on 19 September.

Finally, the central banks will also take the floor again in September. Whilst the ECB (1 Sep) and the BoJ (6/7 Sep) are currently not expected to bring any major impetus, the picture looks different for the Fed. Although it seems almost certain that the FOMC meeting of 20 September will raise the key rate to 3.75%, the flattening of the US yield curve in the last few weeks shows that the markets expect the cycle of interest rate hikes to come to an end soon. 5yr Treasury Notes are yielding no more than a good 4% at the moment, those maturing in 10 years earn 4.15%. If the FOMC meeting of 20 September maintains its current assessment of the overall economic risks, thus implicitly announcing a further interest rate hike to 4% in November, the current yields can no longer be justified.

We believe that the slight weakness of the dollar might well go on for some time. The signs coming from the European and the Japanese economies will remain friendly for the time being and the elections are feeding a positive mood. This scenario is complemented by political pressure on China to allow for a further appreciation of the renminbi. Around mid-September, attention might focus on US monetary policy again. We do not see why the state of the US economy should prompt the Fed to stop raising the key rates, particularly as long-term interest rates failed to react to the monetary tightening and the real estate markets continue to boom as before. The US dollar might then be gaining ground again.

Stephan Rieke +49 69 718-4114
Economics Department
+49 69 718-3642
volkswirtschaft@bhf-bank.com
Foreign Exchange Trading
devisenhandel@bhf-bank.com
Jörg Isselmann
+49 69 718-2695
Matthias Grabbe / Klaus Näfken
+49 69 718-2688

This report has been prepared by BHF-BANK Aktiengesellschaft on behalf of itself and its affiliated companies (together "BHF-BANK Group") solely for the information of its clients. The information and opinions in this document are based on sources believed to be reliable and acting in good faith, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made by any member of the BHF-BANK Group as to their accuracy, completeness or correctness. Opinions and recommendations are given in good faith but without legal responsibility and are subject to change without notice. The information does not constitute advice or personal recommendation, for which the duty of suitability would be owed, but may facilitate your own investment decision. Moreover, you should seek your own advice as to the suitability of an investment matter mentioned herein. Investors are reminded that the price of securities and the income from them can go down as well as up and that the past performance of an investment or a market is not necessarily indicative for future results. This document is for information purposes only. Descriptions of any company or companies or their securities mentioned herein are not intended to be complete, and this document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy the securities mentioned in it. BHF-BANK Group and its officers and employees may have a long or short position or engage in transactions in any of the securities mentioned in this document, or in any related securities. This publication must not be distributed in the United States.
© 2005 BHF-BANK Aktiengesellschaft
All rights reserved. Please mention source when quoting from it.


 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!

The Amazing Trader includes:
  • Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
  • Live trading strategy sessions.
  • Market Updates with Trading Tools.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader


Trading Ideas for 20 October 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales


Tue 24 Oct
All Day flash PMIs
Wed 25 Oct
01:30 AU- CPI
08:00 DE- IFO Survey
08:30 GB- GDP
14:00 CA- BOC Decision
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 26 Oct
11:45 EZ- ECB Decision
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:00 US- Pending Homes Sales
Fri 27 Oct
12:30 US- GDP
14:00 US- final Univ of Michigan

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: High Fri-- 12:30 GMT CA- Retail Sales and CPI. Top economic indicators.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Fri-- 14:00 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




TRADER ADVOCACY ARTICLES

Trader's Advocate Articles..

pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105