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Tuesday December 23, 2014 - 03:18:59 GMT
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Morning Briefing : 23-Dec-2014 -0319 GMT

GOOD MORNING! STOCKS Dow (17,989.44, +0.87%) traded up on small volumes. With lack of data and volumes, the levels of 18,000 are unlikely to be breached. We expect a general sideways move through the holidays. Shanghai (3090.97, -1.14%) traded as high as 3188 before falling on the profit booking and lack of global cues. Dax (9,865.76, +0.81%) is well supported by almost certain ECB's QE and the steady depreciation ofEuro. We are likely to see more upsides here but 10,000 is unlikely to breached before the new year. Nifty (8,324.00, +1.20%) is likely to be biased on the upside as most of the FII related selling is probably over and funds investing their cash before the quarter ends. We are likely to see the upside of up to 8400 in the current rally. COMMODITIES Gold (1178.30) dropped sharply yesterday. The strong Dollar and the expectations of strong GDP may continue to weigh on Gold making the near term outlook negative for the metal. Strong bears are influencing the price movement pushing it below 1180. With increasing volatility we may see some more fall in the coming weeks. We may see levels of 1160 on the downside. Silver (15.687) is also trading lower but has kept itself stable in the 15.5-17.25 regions. While below 17.29, the near term outlook remains bearish. Nymex WTI (55.72) climbed about 1% in the New York session yesterday but has fallen again amidst news that Iraq is joining OPEC in defending market share. The price has paused for a few sessions now above 52.5 levels and if this continues, we may see some signals of recovery in the oil markets. Brent (60.49) has also been paused near current levels and moves have been tight. May see some recovery in the beginning of the next year. Note that Natural Gas has been falling sharply since a few sessions and may threaten the oil markets further. Copper (2.908) is trading higher today and as said earlier, the crucial range of 2.95-2.85 may hold till the next week. Overall long term trend remains down. FOREX The larger levels are likely to remain intact until volumes return into markets after the holidays. Euro (1.2227) is near the yearly lows of 1.22. The overall trend in quarterly and monthly charts would turn very bearish as it closes near the lows and below 200-month moving average. Pound-Dollar's (1.5587) remains near its range with drop below 1.5600 on low volumes inconclusive.Pound is likely to move back into the range which now expands to 1.5750-1.5550. Dollar-Yen (120.12) has been steadily drifting up and now above 120. Our expectations of range bound moves below 120 have been proven incorrect. Though this rally, on low volumes, remains a suspect 120.50 is the next resistance to reckon with. 119.00 is a good support in short term. Japan has a holiday today and the trading is likely to be much muted. Dollar-RUPEE (63.24) opened weak but climbed up on importer buying. Though we expect a muted market until the volumes return, there could be some spikes either side as late moving quarter end flows skew the markets. INTEREST RATES The US treasury yields are clearly in the formation of curve flattening. The near term 2Yr(0.640%) and the 5Yr(1.660%) have risen a bit while the 10Yr(2.156%) and the 30Yr(2.741%) yields continue to fall. Overall the longer term trend is down. The UK gilts are falling. The 5Yr (1.233%), 10Yr (1.824%) fell from 1.254% and 1.849% respectively and may continue so this week. Indian 10Yr GOI (7.9550%) is stable for now in the crucial 7.8-8% and may continue so for some time while the Rupee strengthens. But we may soon expect a rise to 8% and further in the coming weeks, DATA TODAY 9:30 GMT or 15:00 IST UK GDP ...Expected 0.70 % ...Previous 0.67 % 13:30 GMT or 19:00 IST US Personal Income ...Expected 0.60 % ...Previous 0.22 % 13:30 GMT or 19:00 IST US PCE Price Index M/M ...Expected 0.50 % ...Previous 0.23 % 13:30 GMT or 19:00 IST US Durable Goods Orders ...Expected 3.00 % ...Previous 0.26 % 13:30 GMT or 19:00 IST US GDP ...Expected 4.30 % ...Previous 3.84 % 13:30 GMT or 19:00 IST CA GDP ...Expected 0.1 % ...Previous 0.4 % 15:00 GMT or 20:30 IST US New Home Sales ...Expected 461 K ...Previous 458 K DATA YESTERDAY:- US Existing Home Sales ...Expected 5210 K ...Previous 5250 K ...Actual 4930 K

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
US/JP- Holiday
All Day flash PMIs
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes

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Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


John M. Bland, MBA
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