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Tuesday December 23, 2014 - 11:13:24 GMT
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| | Email EU Mid-Market Update: UK Q3 GDP revised lower and registers a record current account deficit

Tue, 23 Dec 2014 5:11 AM EST

- UK Final Q3 GDP YoY reading revised lower (2.6% vs. 3.0% prelim) and its current account registers if largest deficit on record

**Economic data***
- (FI) Finland Nov PPI M/M: -0.5% v -0.3% prior; Y/Y: -0.5% v -0.3% prior
- (FI) Finland Nov Unemployment Rate: 8.2% v 8.5%e
- (FR) France Q3 Final GDP data (inline) Q/Q: 0.3% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 0.4% v 0.4%e
- (FR) France Nov Consumer Spending data (misses); M/M: 0.4% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: -1.1% v -0.7%e
- (FR) France Nov PPI M/M: -0.1% v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: -2.0% v -1.2% prior
- (TW) Taiwan Nov Industrial Production (misses) Y/Y: 6.9% v 8.8%e; Commercial Sales Y/Y: 0.7% v 2.1%e
- (ES) Spain Nov PPI data (misses); M/M: -1.1% v -1.0%e; Y/Y: -1.5% v -0.4%e
- (ES) Spain Oct Total Mortgage Lending Y/Y: 17.7% v 42.8% prior; House Mortgage Approvals Y/Y: 18.0% v 29.8% prior
- (DK) Denmark Q3 Final GDP (mixed); Q/Q: 0.4% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 1.0% v 0.9%e
- (HK) Hong Kong Nov CPI Composite (higher); Y/Y: 5.1% v 4.7%e
- (SE) Sweden Nov PPI M/M: -0.4% v +0.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.3% v 2.1% prior
- (IT) Italy Oct Retail Sales data (mixed); M/M: 0.0% v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: -0.8 v -0.6% prior
- (NO) Norway Oct AKU Unemployment Rate (higher-than-expected): 3.8% v 3.7%e
- (PL) Poland Nov Retail Sales data (misses); M/M: -8.1% v -6.4%e; Y/Y: -0.2% v +2.0%e
- (PL) Poland Nov Unemployment Rate (inline): 11.4% v 11.4%e
- (UK) Q3 Final GDP (revised lower); Q/Q: 0.7% v 0.7%e; Y/Y: 2.6% v 3.0%e
- (UK) Q3 Final Total Business Investment (missed); Q/Q: -1.4% v -0.7%e; Y/Y: 5.2% v 6.3%e
- (UK) Current Account Balance (worse then expected): -27.0B v -23.2Be (largest deficit on record)
- (UK) Nov BBA Loans for House Purchase (beats): 36.7K v 36.4Ke

Fixed Income:
- None seen

Indices [Stoxx50 +0.1%
, FTSE 100 +0.2% at 6,589, DAX -0.1% at 9,857, CAC-40 +0.2% at 4,266, IBEX-35 -0.2% at 10,347, FTSE MIB +0.3% at 19,138, SMI +0.1% at 9,046, S&P 500 Futures flat at 2,072]

- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: Equity markets open slightly higher, tracking US gains, with the second round of Greek presidential elections in focus; Markets pare gains amid soft Belgium CPI for Dec and UK Q3 GDP revision; Athens Stock Exchange trades lower by over 1.5%; Shanghai Composite declines by over 3%; UK listed mining shares trade mixed

By Sector
- Consumer Discretionary
[Thorntons THT.UK -25% (profit warning), Nutreco NUO.NL -5% (Cargill no longer pursuing bid)]]
- Stoxx50 Sectors [Technology +0.5%, Industrials +0.5%, Consumer Non-Cyclical +0.5%, Telecom +0.3%, Consumer Cyclical +0.1%, Financials flat, Basic Materials flat , Energy flat; Utilities -0.2%]

- France PM Valls
express concern that upcoming French jobless figures won't be good
- Bank of Spain (BOS) Monthly Bulletin forecasted 2015 GDP +2.0% vs. +1.4% seen in 2014 and saw Q4 GDP +0.6% (**Note: The Final Q3 reading was 0.5%)**Insight: Spain has experienced 5 straight quarters of growth
- Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) gov Ingves stated that he was willing to take additional policy measures if necessary and reiterated view that SEK currency (Krona) intervention was a last option
- Russia PM Medvedev: Tells country's largest State exporters to sell portion of its foreign currency revenues to help stabilize the RUB currency (Ruble). Russia Central Bank to hold consultations with exporters on hard currency revenue sales
- Russia may let deposit insurance agency take stakes in banks

- Year-end conditions put FX markets into the doldrums ahead of the Christmas break but there were a few exceptions

- The GBP was softer in the latter part of the European morning after UK Final Q3 GDP YoY reading was revised lower (2.6% vs. 3.0% prelim) and its current account registered if largest deficit on record. GBP/USD approached the 1.5550 level after the data release.
- The RUB currency (Russian Ruble) continued to stabilize from the record lows that were hit just a week ago. USD/RUB pair approached the 54 level as Russia govt continued to look at implementing measures to support its currency. Russia Central Bank held consultations with various key exporters on hard currency revenue sales.

**Political/In the Papers:
- (EU) ECB's Hansson (Estonia): Sovereign bond purchases are 'borderline', and ECB must determine whether or not that would be considered illegal Govt financing
- (GR) Greece Fin Min Hardouvelis: Talks with Troika are on the right track; Expected to unlock 1.8B disbursement from EFSF.
- (CN) China 7-day repo rate opens at 5.48%, down from 6.17% previous close (largest decline since Apr)
- (CN) PBoC won't conduct open market operations (OMO) in today's session (8th consecutive halt)

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (GR) Second Round of Greece Presidential selection process
- (UR) Ukraine to present its 2015 draft budget
- Arab Energy Conference in Abu Dhabi
- (ES) Spain Nov YTD Budget Balance: No est v -30.9B prior
- (PT) Portugal Nov YTD Budget Report
- (AR) Argentina Dec Consumer Confidence Index: No est v 43.7B prior
- 05:30 (BR) Brazil Central Bank quarterly inflation report
- 05:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to sell 3-month Bills; Avg Yield: % v 1.33% prior; Bid-to-cover: x v 3.50x prior (Dec 16th 2014)
- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Nov Property Prices M/M: No est v 2.9% prior; Y/Y: No est v 16.3% prior
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (RU) Russia announces weekly OFZ bond auction
- 07:00 (CL) Chile Nov PPI M/M: No est v -1.6% prior
- 07:45 (US) ICSC Chain Store Sales
- 08:00 (HU) Hungary Central Bank (NBH) Dec Minutes
- 08:15 (US) Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 08:30 (US) Q3 Final GDP Annualized Q/Q: 4.3%e v 3.9% prelim; Personal Consumption: 2.5%e v 2.2% prelim
- 08:30 (US) Q3 Final GDP Price Index: 1.4%e v 1.4% prelim; Core PCE Q/Q: 1.4%e v 1.4% prelim
- 08:30 (US) Nov Durable Goods Orders: 3.0%e v 0.3% prior (revised from 0.4%); Durables Ex Transportation: +1.0%e v -1.1% prior (revised from 09.1%); Capital Goods Orders (Non-defense/Ex-aircraft): +1.0%e v -1.6% prior (revised from -1.3%); Capital Goods Shipments (Non-defense/Ex-aircraft): +1.3%e v -0.7% prior (revised from -0.4%); Durables Ex-Defense: No est v -0.6% prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Oct GDP M/M: 0.1%e v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 2.1%e v 2.3% prior
- 08:55 (US) Weekly Redbook Sales
- 09:00 (US) Oct FHFA House Price Index M/M: 0.3%e v 0.0% prior
- 09:00 (BE) Belgium Dec Business Confidence: -5.7e v -6.1 prior
- 09:00 (EU) Weekly ECB Forex Reserves
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Oct Economic Activity Index (Monthly GDP) Y/Y: 2.4%e v 2.9% prior
- 09:15 (BR) Brazil to sell 2018 Bills
- 09:55 (US) Dec Final University of Michigan Confidence: 93.5e v 93.8 prelim
- 10:00 (US) Dec Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index: 8e v 4 prior
- 10:00 (US) Nov New Home Sales: 460Ke v 458K prior
- 10:00 (US) Nov Personal Income: 0.5%e v 0.2% prior; Personal Spending: 0.5%e v 0.2% prior
- 10:00 (US) Nov PCE Deflator M/M: -0.1%e v +0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.2%e v 1.4% prior
- 10:00 (US) Nov PCE Core M/M: 0.1%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.5%e v 1.6% prior

- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Weekly International Reserves:
- 11:00 (UR) Ukraine to sell 2-Year and 10-yer UAH-denominated Bonds
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell $13B in 2-Year Floating Rate Notes Reopening
- 11:30 (BR) Brazil Nov Total Federal Debt (BRL): No est v 2.155T prior
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $35B in 5-Year Notes
- 16:00 (KR) South Korea Dec Consumer Confidence: No est v 103.0 prior
- 16:30 (US) Weekly API Crude Oil Inventories
- 23:30 (TW) Taiwan to sell TWD30B in 3-month Bills


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