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Monday December 29, 2014 - 12:03:17 GMT
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| | Email EU Mid-Market Update: Greece fails to select a President with snap elections to be called in early 2015

Mon, 29 Dec 2014 5:39 AM EST

- Greece Parliament failed to select PM Samaras candidate for President (Stavros Dimas) in the 3rd and final round; snap elections to be held in early 2015

- Italy Dec Consumer Confidence misses expectations (99.7 vs. 100.4e)
- Italy year-end auctions results disappoint with low bid-to-covers
- Russia GDP moves into contraction territory for 1st time in over 5 years

**Economic data***
- (RU) Russia Manufacturing PMI: 48.9 v 49.5e; 1st contraction in 6 months and lowest since May

- (CH) Swiss Nov UBS Consumption Indicator: 1.29 v 1.32 prior
- (FI) Finland Dec Business Confidence: -11 v -9 prior; Consumer Confidence Index: 4.4 v 3.0e
- (RU) Russia Nov GDP Y/Y: -0.5% v 0.0% prior (first annual decline since Oct 2009)
- (CZ) Czech Dec Business Confidence: 13.8 v 12.3 prior; Consumer Confidence Index: 2.8 v 1.3 prior; Composite Confidence: 11.6 v 10.1 prior
- (HK) Hong Kong Nov Trade Balance (HKD): -52.2B v -52.0Be; Exports Y/Y: 0.4% v 2.3%e; Imports Y/Y: 2.4% v 4.1%e
- (IT) Italy Dec Consumer Confidence missed; 99.7 v 100.4e (lowest since Feb)
- (BR) Brazil Dec FGV Inflation IGPM M/M: 0.6% v 0.7%e; Y/Y: 3.7% v 3.7%e
- (GR) Greece Parliament failed to select President in 3rd and final of the process; country to hold snap elections by early Feb

Fixed Income:
- (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold 7.0B vs. 7.0B indicated in 6-month Bills; Avg Yield: 0.297% v 0.272% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.39x v 1.72x prior
- (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold 2.5B vs. 2.0-2.5B indicated range in Zero Coupon 2016 Bonds; Avg Yield: 0.499% v 0.692% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.46x v 1.71x prior
- (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) sold HUF60B vs. HUF60B indicated 3-Month Bills; Avg Yield: 1.53% v 1.33% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.60x v 3.50x prior

Indices [Stoxx50 -0.6%, FTSE 100 +0.2% at 6,625, DAX -0.5% at 9,863, CAC-40 flat at 4,292, IBEX-35 -1.2% at 10,347, FTSE MIB -1.6% at 19,036, SMI +0.2% at 9,038, S&P 500 Futures -0.1% at 2,081]

- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: Equity markets open mixed following Christmas break with the final round of the Greek presidential elections in focus; Greek equities have sharp declines ahead of vote; FTSE MIB lower amid general declines for the periphery and weak Italian confidence data; UK-listed mining shares rise; German chemicals firm Lanxess continues to be cautious on outlook

By Sector
- Healthcare
[Novo Nordisk NOVOB.DK +2.5% (FDA approval)]
- Stoxx50 sectors [Energy -1%, Telecom -0.7%, Utilities -0.5%, Consumer Cyclical -0.5%, Industrials -0.4%, Financials -0.2%, Basic Materials -0.2%; Technology +0.1%, Consumer Non-Cyclical +0.1%]

- Russia Foreign Min Lavrov stated that he saw real opportunity to solve Ukraine crisis in 2015
- Russia President Putin signed into law the increase of banking sector deposit insurance level from RUB700K to RUB1.4M
- Russia First Deputy PM Shuvalov: Russia to choose banks to get RUB1T by mid-Jan
- Next IMF mission to Ukraine to begin Jan 8th and expected to complete work before end of Jan
- China State Information Center (SIC) saw China 2015 GDP at 7.0% from 7.3% expected in 2014
- Japan LDP tax proposal: Japan should cut corporate tax to 31.33% over 2 years (in line with press speculation)

- The USD remained in tight ranges but the focus remained on the 3rd and final round of the Greece Parliament selection process on PM Samaras candidate for President - Stavros Dimas. The country would move to snap elections in early 2015 if no candidate received the necessary 180 votes to be selected. The saying going into the Greek vote was "Merry Crisis and Happy new fear"
- The RUB currency weakened in the session after the Economic Ministry confirmed that monthly GDP data saw its first annual decline since Oct 2009 (Nov GDP Y/Y: -0.5% vs. 0.0% prior). RUB currency (Ruble) weakened by approx 7% in session to test 58.00 level (**Note: last week's low was 52.00). Today is the last tax payment day for 2014 for Russian companies and reports that companies had already sold enough FX to cover taxes
- SNB stated that the CHF currency (franc) did not trade below the 1.2000 floor on Dec 25th, contrary to some reports, reaffirmed floor in cross was guaranteed at all times.

**Political/In the Papers:
- (DE) Head of German Govt advisors (aka. 'wisemen') Christoph Schmidt: No reason for ECB to start buying sovereign bonds to support euro zone growth
- (CN) China Ministry of Commerce published and then removed expectations of 2014 trade growth of 3.5%, which implies China would miss 7.5% 2014 GDP target

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)
- 06:00 (IT) Italy PM Renzi year-end press conference
- 06:30 (CL) Chile Central Bank Meeting Minutes
- 06:30 (BR) Brazil Nov Central Govt Budget Balance (BRL): -1.3Be v +4.1B prior
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (GR) Greece PM Samaras press conference following rejection of Presidential condidate
- 07:30 (BR) Brazil Nov Nominal Budget Balance (BRL): -32.8Be v -17.8B prior; Primary Budget Balance (BRL): -1.6Be v +3.7B prior; Net Debt to GDP Ratio: 36.1%e v 36.1% prior
- 08:15 (US) Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 08:50 (FR) France Debt Agency cancels weekly 3-month, 6-month and 12-month Bills
- 09:00 (IL) Israel Central Bank (BOI) Interest Rate Decision: expected to leave Base Rate unchanged at 0.25%
- 09:35 (EU) ECB calls for bids in 7-Day Main Refinancing Tender
- 09:45 (EU) ECB announces Covered-Bond Purchases
- 10:30 (US) Dec Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity: 9.0e v 10.5 prior
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 3-Month and 6-Month Bills
- 12:30 (MX) Mexico to sell 1-month, 3-month and 6-month Bills

- 12:30 (MX) Mexico to sell MXN9.5B in 5-year bonds
- 14:00 (AR) Argentina Q3 Current Account Balance: No est v $0.6B prior
- 14:00 (AR) Argentina Oct Economic Activity Index (Monthly GDP) M/M: No est v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: -0.5%e v -0.2% prior
- 14:00 (AR) Argentina Q3 GDP Y/Y: -0.5%e v 0.0% prior
- 14:00 (AR) Argentina Nov Industrial Production M/M: No est v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: -1.3%e v -1.8% prior
- 14:00 (AR) Argentina Nov Construction Activity M/M: No est v 0.9% prior; Y/Y: No est v 4.9% prior
- 18:00 (KR) South Korea Nov Current Account Balance: No est v $9.0B prior; Balance of Payments (BoP): No est v $8.7B prior-
- 18:00 (KR) South Korea Nov Industrial Production M/M: +0.9%e v -1.6% prior; Y/Y: -2.3%e v -3.2% prior
- 22:30 (HK) Hong Kong to sell 3-month and 12-month Bills


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