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Wednesday December 31, 2014 - 11:50:36 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com EU Mid-Market Update: Markets await a potential prosperous 2015 - Happy New Year!!!!


Wed, 31 Dec 2014 5:06 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- South Korea Dec CPI CPI hits a 13-month low and continues builds the case for more rate cuts
- China HSBC final Manufacturing PMI confirmed its first contraction in 7 months
- Greece President Papoulias formally dissolved Parliament

**Economic data***
- (TR) Turkey Nov Trade Balance: -$8.3B v -$7.0Be
- (GR) Greece Oct Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: 3.7% v 2.2% prior; Retail Sales Value: +0.5% v -0.9% prior

Fixed Income:
- (IN) India sold total INR130B vs. INR130B indicated in 3-month and 6-month Bills

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
**Equities**
Indices [FTSE 100 +0.2% at 6,561
, DAX closed, CAC-40 +0.5% a 4,268, IBEX-35 +0.1% at 10,291, FTSE MIB closed, SMI closed, S&P 500 Futures +0.2% at 2,080]

- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: Equity markets open generally higher following losses on Tuesday in holiday shortened session; ECB's Praet comments on potential second round effects related to low inflation

By Sector
- Technology
[Fugro FUR.NL +1% (credit amendment) ]
- Industrials [Ballast Nedam BALNE.NL +19% (takeover speculation)]
- Consumer Discretionary [Bwin.Party Digital BPTY.UK -3% (cautious outlook)]
- Stoxx50 sectors [Utilities -1.3%, Basic Materials -0.6%, Consumer Cyclical -0.4%, Telecom -0.3%, Financials -0.2%; Energy +0.5%, Industrials +0.3%, Technology +0.2%, Consumer Non-Cyclical +0.2%]

**Speakers**
- ECB's Draghi reiterated view that lack of structural reforms was a risk for Euro area
and that Monetary Union was still incomplete
- Greece President Papoulias formally dissolved Parliament to make way for January 25th elections
- Greece Fin Min Hardouvelis stated that its State financing would be covered until around March 20th without new financial means. Greece does not want "Grexit" but could not completely exclude it if dissatisfaction with austerity measures prevailed but chance was seen as very small. It saw an agreement with Troika at the beginning of 2015 if govt was re-elected
- Head of German Govt advisors (aka. 'wisemen') Christoph Schmidt: Reiterates view No reason for ECB to start buying sovereign bonds to support euro zone growth in the absence of deflation
- Singapore PM Lee: Economy grew 2.8% in 2014 vs approx 3% target, saw slower growth in 2015. Productivity performance has been disappointing for the 3rd straight year
- China PBoC Q4 Monetary Policy Statement reiterated it would maintain a prudent monetary policy; to be flexible with using multiple monetary tools. It also reiterated view that China economy remained in a reasonable range but could not underestimate the complexity of conditions
- China Futures Trading Draft Guideline said to propose to allow foreign investors and Brokerages to trade designated futures contracts starting with Crude Oil Futures
- Saudi King Abdullah admitted to hospital in Riyadh for medical checks

**Currencies***
- FX price action was listless ahead of New Year holiday with numerous market closures/half-day sessions in both Asia and Europe. The EUR/USD little changed at 1.2155 while USD/JPY hovered around 119.50

**Political/In the Papers:
- (EU) ECB's Knot (Netherlands): No proposal for QE yet
- (US) Minneapolis Fed Report suggested that the chance of US inflation falling below 1% in 2015 is at a 5-year high, risk of deflation is rising

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)
- 05:30 (IN) India Nov Fiscal Deficit (INR): No est v 3.7B prior
- 06:00 (IL) Israel Q3 Preliminary GDP Annualized: No est v -0.4% advance
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (RU) Russia Gold and Forex Reserves w/e Dec 26th: No est v $398.9B prior
- 08:00 (RU) Russia Dec CPI M/M: 2.5%e v 1.3% prior; Y/Y: 11.2%e v 9.1% prior; CPI YTD: 11.2%e v 8.5% prior
- 08:00 (RU) Russia Dec CPI Core M/M: 2.0%e v 1.0% prior; Y/Y: 10.4%e v 8.9% prior
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Central Bank (NBP) Dec Inflation Expectations Survey: 0.2%e v 0.2% prior
- 08:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 290Ke v 280K prior; Continuing Claims: 2.37Me v 2.403M prior
- 09:00 (US) Dec ISM Milwaukee: No est v 70.25 prior
- 09:30 (BR) Brazil Weekly Currency Flows
- 09:45 (US) Dec Chicago Purchasing Manager: 60.0e v 60.8 prior
- 10:00 (US) Nov Pending Home Sales M/M: +0.5%e v -1.1% prior; Y/Y: 3.6%e v 2.2% prior

- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Nov Net Outstanding Loans (MXN): No est v 2.637T prior
- 10:30 (US) Weekly DOE Crude Oil Inventories
- 12:00 (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories
- 19:00 (KR) South Korea Dec Trade Balance: $4.7Be v $5.6B prior; Exports Y/Y: +0.1%e v -1.9% prior; Imports Y/Y: -4.0%e v -4.0% prior
- 20:00 (CN) China Dec Manufacturing PMI: 50.0e v 50.3 prior
- (RU) Russia Q3 Final Current Account Balance: No est v $11.4B prelim



 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
US/JP- Holiday
All Day flash PMIs
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


John M. Bland, MBA
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