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TradeTheNews.com EU Mid-Market Update: Risk appetite finds its groove again


Thu, 08 Jan 2015 5:15 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- Risk appetite finds some loving as Fed minutes showed that most Fed officials were willing to be "patient" on interest rates
- Germany Nov Factory Orders worse than expected (M/M: -2.4% v -0.8%e)
- Euro Zone data mixed in session (Retail sales beats; PPI lower-than-expected, confidence data mixed)

**Economic data***
- (DE) Germany Nov Factory Orders (miss
); M/M: -2.4% v -0.8%e; Y/Y: -0.4% v +1.0%e
- (UK) Dec Halifax House Prices (beats); M/M: 0.9% v 0.3%e; 3M/Y: 7.8% v 7.6%e
- (TR) Turkey Nov Industrial Production M/M: -0.1% v +1.3%e; Y/Y: 0.7% v 1.8%e
- (NL) Netherlands Dec CPI M/M: -0.2% v -0.6% prior; Y/Y: 0.7% v 1.0% prior
- (NO) Norway Nov Industrial Production M/M: -1.9% v +0.6% prior; Y/Y: 4.2% v 10.7% prior
- (NO) Norway Nov Manufacturing Production M/M: -0.4% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: 4.0% v 4.6% prior
- (ZA) South Africa Dec Sacci Business Confidence: 88.3 v 90.8 prior
- (EU) Euro Zone Nov Retail Sales (beat) M/M: 0.6% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.5% v 0.2%e
- (EU) Euro Zone Nov PPI (miss) M/M: -0.3% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: -1.6% v -1.4%e
- (EU) Euro Zone Dec Confidence data mixed; Business Climate Indicator: 0.04 v 0.17e; Consumer Confidence: -10.9 v -10.9e; Services Confidence: 5.6 v 4.6e; Industrial Confidence: -5.2 v -4.0e; Economic Confidence: 100.7 v 101.2e

Fixed Income:
- (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total 5.008B vs. 4.0-5.0B indicated range in 2020, 2028 and 2037 Bonds

- Sold 2.83B in 1.40% 2020 bono; Avg Yield 0.928% v 0.946% prior; Bid-to-cover 1.49x v 2.75x prior; Maximum Yield: 0.964% v 0.959% prior
- Sold 1.54B in 5.15% Oct 2028 bono; Avg Yield 2.272% v 2.842% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.69x v 1.33x prior; Max Yield 2.283% v 2.909% prior; Tail:
- Sold 638M in 4.20% Jan 2037 bono; Avg Yield 2.701% v 5.957% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.33x v 1.5 x prior; Max Yield: 2.710%
- (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) sold total 9.49B vs. 8.5-9.5B indicated range in 2024, 2030 and 2045 Oats
- Sold 4.854B in 1.75% Nov 2024 Oat; Yield 0.79% v 1.18% prior; bid-to-cover:1.95 x v 1.39x prior (Nov 6th 2014)
- Sold 3.785B in 2.50% May 2030 Oat; Avg Yield 1.30% v 1.81% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.75x v 1.89x prior
- Sold 855M in 3.25% 2045 Oat; Avg Yield: 1.77% v 2.37% prior; Bid-to-cover: 3.06x v 2.52x prior

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
**Equities**
Indices [Stoxx50 +1.2%,
FTSE 100 +1.3% at 6,501, DAX +1% at 9,617, CAC-40 +1.5% at 4,174, IBEX-35 +1% at 9,992, FTSE MIB +1.2% at 18,340, SMI +1.5% at 9,043, S&P 500 Futures +0.7% at 2,033]

- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: Equity markets open sharply higher amid gains in the US and Tokyo as dealers assess FOMC minutes and comments from Fed's Evans; Additionally, Greek markets open higher amid lower bond yields and speculated debt renegotiation talks; Tesco opens higher on better than expected Q3 UK sales and reaffirmation of outlook; Marks & Spencer reports weaker Q3 food sales; Standard Chartered supported by speculated cost cuts; Oil producers rebound; Friday's US payrolls report remains in focus; Samsung Electronics offers mixed Q4 guidance; Corporate bond issuance picks up

By Sector
- Consumer Discretionary
[Tesco TSCO.UK +6% (reaffirmed outlook), Howden Joinery HWDN.UK +4% (upbeat outlook), Hays HAS.UK +3% (Q2 LFL net fees +7%); Marks & Spencer MKS.UK -2% (Q3 food sales below ests) ]
- Healthcare [Evolva EVE.CH +4% (milestone related to L'Oreal agreement), Novartis NOVN.CH +1% (FDA panel decision on biosimilar) ]
- Telecom [Alcatel Lucent ALU.FR +2.5% (broker commentary)]
- Technology [Spirent Communications SPT.UK +7% (upbeat outlook), Infineon IFX.DE +1% (guidance from Samsung)]
- Industrials [Schneider Electric SU.FR +3% (broker commentary)]
- Financials [Standard Charted STAN.UK +1.5% (speculated cost cuts)]
- Stoxx50 sectors [Basic Materials +1.4%, Industrials +1.4%, Consumer Non-Cyclical +1.4%, Energy +1.2%, Telecom +1.1%, Financials +1%, Utilities +0.5%, Consumer Cyclical +0.4%; Technology -0.6%]

**Speakers**
- ECB stated that the continuation of Greek funding program assumed a new Troika program
. The collateral waiver based on current program until end of Feb.
- UK Stats Authority: Review of CPI stats recommends govt should move away from selling Gilts linked to RPI; consider CPI or CPIH-linked bonds instead
- Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) Minutes noted that economic activity in country was improving but inflation remained too low
- Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) Gov Ingves noted that its Zero Repo Rate policy was sufficient to bring inflation to target but needed to be prepared to take further measures. First next step if needed would to postpone the first potential rate hike (**Note Currently seen in H2 2016)
- Poland Fin Min Szczurek: 2014 Budget Deficit is less than PLN30B; sees 2015 CPI well below central bank's 2.5% target

**Currencies***
- The USD overall tone remained bid among the major pairs
- The EUR/USD testing below the 1.18 handle as recent EU inflation data intensified market expectations that the ECB would announce further policy action in the form of QE at the January 22ne meeting
- USD/JPY registered a 3-day high just under the 120 level
- AUD was higher after strong building approvals data in Australia
- Oil prices found a steady tone.

**Political/In the Papers:
- (GR) Germany said to be open to the idea of renegotiations of Greece debt following the election in efforts to help burdens; however not open to write-offs. Would consider easing debt repayment terms
- (US) Fed's Evans (dove, 2015 FOMC voter): Liftoff should not occur until 2016; Raising rates would be a catastrophe; Inflation outlook is more worrisome, sees it staying below 2% goal until 2018

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (RU) Russia Dec Sovereign Wealth Fund Balances: Reserve Fund: No est v $88.9B prior; Wellbeing Fund: No est v $80.0B prior
- (MX) Mexico Dec Vehicle Production: No est v 284.8K prior; Vehicle Domestic Sales: No est v 111.7K prior; Vehicle Exports: No est v 237.9K prior
- 05:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to sell Floating Rate Bonds
- 05:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to sell new 2.50% Jun 2018 (3-year) bond
- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Nov Retail Sales Volume M/M: No est v -0.7% prior; Y/Y: No est v 5.6% prior
- 06:00 (ZA) South Africa Nov Electricity Consumption Y/Y: No est v -1.0% prior; Electricity Production Y/Y: No est v -1.0% prior
- 06:00 (BR) Brazil Nov Industrial Production M/M: 0.5%e v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: -4.0%e v -3.6% prior
- 06:00 (CL) Chile Dec CPI M/M: -0.3%e v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 4.8%e v 5.5% prior; CPI Core M/M: 0.2%e v 0.3% prior
- 06:00 (RO) Romania to sell 3.25% 2018 bond
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (UK) BOE Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave both Interest Rate and Asset Purchase Target (APT) unchanged at 0.50% and 375B respectively
- 07:00 (IE) Ireland Nov Consumer Confidence Index: No est v 85.5 prior
- 07:15 (UR) Ukraine PM Yatsenyuk with German Chancellor Merkel in Berlin
- 07:30 (US) Dec Challenger Job Cuts: No est v +35.9K prior; Y/Y: No est v -20.7% prior
- 08:15 (US) Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 08:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 290Ke v 298K prior; Continuing Claims: 2.36Me v 2.353M prior
- 08:30 (US) Weekly USDA Net Export Sales
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Nov New Housing Price Index M/M: 0.1%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: No est v 1.6% prior
- 08:30 (BR) Brazil Dec Vehicle Production: No est v 264.8K prior; Vehicle Sales: No est v 294.7K prior; Vehicle Exports: No est v 26.0K prior
- 09:00 (EU) EU's Juncker
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Dec CPI M/M: 0.5%e v 0.8% prior; Y/Y: 4.1%e v 4.2% prior; CPI Core M/M: 0.3%e v 0.2% prior
- 10:00 (HU) Hungary Dec YTD Budget Balance (HUF): No est v -713.7B prior
- 10:30 (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories
- 11:00 (US) Treasury announces size of upcoming 3-year, 10-year and 30-year notes/bonds
- 12:00 (DE) German Fin Min Schaeuble
- 12:00 (US) Fed's Rosengren
- 15:00 (US) Nov Consumer Credit: $15.0Be v $13.2B prior
- 16:00 (CO) Colombia Nov Exports: $4.1Be v $4.2B prior
- 18:00 (PE) Peru Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Reference Rate unchanged at 3.50%
- 19:30 (AU) Australia Nov Retail Sales M/M: No est v 0.4% prior
- 20:00 (US) Fed's Kocherlakota on monetary policy
- 20:30 (CN) China Dec PPI Y/Y: -3.1%e v -2.7% prior
- 20:30 (CN) China Dec CPI Y/Y: 1.5%e v 1.4% prior

- 22:35 (JP) Japan to sell 6-Month Bills

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
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Fri 24 Nov
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US- Early Closes

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Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


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