User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Monday August 29, 2005 - 20:41:18 GMT
FXCM - www.dailyfx.com

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forex: Katrina Downgraded to Category 1, Oil Prices Recede, US Dollar Rallies

DailyFX Fundamentals 08-29-05

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of www.dailyfx.com

· Katrina Downgraded to Category 1, Oil Prices Recede, US Dollar Rallies
· BoE Continues to Watch Inflation
· Oil Finally Taking a Toll on the Japanese Yen

US Dollar

To our sheer disbelief, the dollar has completely shrugged off the potential damage of Hurricane Katrina. Yes, Katrina has been downgraded to a category 1 storm from a category 5 storm and oil prices have retraced as a result, but it is too early for her complete damage to be correctly assessed. We think that today’s price action is more a result of a lack of liquidity due to a London market holiday than sensible price action. The long-term consequences of higher oil and natural gas prices is a problem that has not yet been resolved and the latest uptick in prices only exacerbates the potential strain that the higher costs could have on consumers. Oil production platforms across the gulf have been closed causing October crude oil futures to hit a high of $70.80 a barrel during Asian trading. Since 30% of US oil is produced in the Gulf of Mexico, the disruptions down south are particularly alarming. According to analysts contacted by the Financial Times, “12% of US crude oil production capacity and roughly 10% of total US refining capacity was shut down.” There are rumors that some of the refineries were particularly hard hit; the FT reports 1.8 m barrels a day of capacity has been shut down by the storm, which means that it may take weeks for them to be brought back to normal operating capacity. At a time when oil supplies are already dwindling and spare capacity evaporating, this oil supply shock could be disastrous for oil prices in the medium term. However, the big story today was not oil but natural gas futures, which leaped over 14% to a high of $12.07 per million btu. Even though prices have abated thanks to the reopening of the Henry Hub gas gathering facility, these higher prices could be very difficult for US consumers to bear in the coming months. Over 57% of Americans heat their homes using natural gas and it is already estimated that the rise in natural gas prices could cause heating bills to be anywhere from 15-20% higher this winter. Unless the government taps into the country’s Strategic Oil Reserve, there seems to be no respite ahead for the US consumer (It seems that the President is indeed mulling over temporarily “lending” supplies of crude oil to refineries to tie over delayed shipments). Retail gasoline prices continue to creep higher with a gallon of regular grade gasoline reaching $3.96 on Catalina Island in Southern California. According to the EIA, the average price of gasoline in the US for the week of August 22 is $2.612, which is a 10% rise over the past 2 weeks. Sooner rather than later we expect that these high costs will have a major impact on the US economy and the US dollar. Like the University of Michigan consumer confidence survey reported last week, tomorrow’s Conference Board Consumer Confidence survey could also take a sharp dive, which would give dollar bears a reason to reinitiate their short positions.

Euro

With London traders out on holiday, the markets, dominated by US traders were naturally distracted by the developments in the southern part of the United States. However, it is still important to mention the particularly strong consumer confidence survey released from Germany this morning. According to the Gfk survey, consumer confidence rose from an upwardly revised 3.2 to 3.4 in the month of August. The economic outlook portion of the report also rose to the highest levels in at least 6 months with an equally sharp rise in the “willingness to buy component.” This trend of improving Eurozone data is nothing new at this point. For the most part, the markets remain relatively upbeat about the health of the Eurozone. We have a barrage of labor market data due out of the region on Wednesday as well as the German retail sales report. Most of these reports should continue to reflect a trend of improvements.

British Pound

No economic news on the front for the U.K. economy as few traders contemplated recent inflationary comments by Bank of England Governor Mervyn King. Over the weekend, King commented on currently stable inflation and hinted at the fact that given an unexpected shock to the system, inflation volatility could pickup and subsequently stray violently from current targets. The BoE Governor additionally warned that it “would be unwise to count on inflation expectations remaining stable.” The warning was issued behind the belief that given consumer expectations, inflationary perspectives may be allocated too much weight thus rendering central bankers powerless when called to lower benchmark targets. Ultimately, this may spur speculation that interest rates would indefinitely rise as a result of attempts by policy officials to control inflation, a basic tenet of the BoE. With that said, traders are looking forward to the net consumer credit report on Wednesday. Expected to rise to GBP1.5 bln, policy officials are carefully monitoring the figure since it became a stated concern several months ago.

Japanese Yen

With Japanese yen moving primarily on rising energy prices today, traders are looking to the data due tonight and tomorrow for a deeper look into how the Japanese economy is faring. Over the next few days, economists are anticipating personal income, household spending, retail trade and industrial production data. Expectations are rather mixed with some figures pointing to a slight retracement from earlier signs of growth while others look to experiencing that lift. One such report is the workers’ household spending figure. With 60% of the economy based on consumer spending, the figure may offer some additional sparks of optimism as individual consumption assisted in propping up the world’s largest economy in 2004-2005. Comparatively, political waves are still being made leading up to next month’s election. According a poll by Asahi newspaper, Koizumi’s LDP party has been losing some previous popularity since the election was called in August. This could adversely affect the equities market and undermine confidence as many had previously believed a sure win for the political party. However, with the counter DPJ party garnering popularity, the reform plan looks to find some considerable resistance in one form or another.

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!

The Amazing Trader includes:
  • Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
  • Live trading strategy sessions.
  • Market Updates with Trading Tools.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader


Trading Ideas for 11 December 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Tue 12 Dec
09:30 GB- CPI
10:00 GB- ZEW Survey
13:30 US- PPI
Wed 13 Dec
00:30 AU- Employment
09:30 GB- Unemployment
13:30 US- CPI
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- Fed Decision
Thu 14 Dec
07:30 CH- SNB Decision
All Day- Global- flash PMIs
12:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
12:45 EZ- ECB Decision
13:30 US- Retail Sales
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:45 US- Industrial Production

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Mediun Tue--10:00 GMT-- DE- ZEW. Second Tier Sentiment Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium Tue--13:30 GMT-- US- PPI

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium Wed--09:30 GMT-- GB- Employment
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed--13:30 GMT-- US- CPI
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed--15:30 GMT-- US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: High Wed--19:00 GMT-- US- Fed Decision


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Thu --00:30 GMT-- AU- Employment
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Thu --All day-- global- flash PMIs
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --07:30-- CH- Swiss National Bank Decision
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --09:30-- GB- Retail Sales
John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




TRADER ADVOCACY ARTICLES

Trader's Advocate Articles..

pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105