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Friday January 9, 2015 - 11:38:45 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com EU Mid-Market Update: US payroll data awaited; numerous European Industrial Production misses expectations in session


Fri, 09 Jan 2015 5:16 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- China Dec inflation data remained subdued and gives PBoC room to act if needed; (PPI Y/Y: -3.3% v -3.1%e, CPI Y/Y: 1.5% v 1.5%e); Shanghai Composite saw gains of 3.4% evaporate in the last hour
- Markets await US Dec payroll data for more clarity on first potential rate hike
- Numerous European Industrial Production misses expectations in session (Germany, France, Spain and UK)
- Swiss CPI data also misses expectations
- ECB staff said to have outlined 500B investment grade QE plan to Board of Governors

**Economic data***
- (CH) Swiss Dec Unemployment Rate (inline): 3.4% v 3.4%e; Unemployment Rate (Seasonally Adj) (miss): 3.2% v 3.1%e

- (DE) Germany Nov Industrial Production data (misses) M/M: -0.1% v +0.3%e; Y/Y: -0.5% v -0.6%e
- (DE) Germany Nov Current Account Balance (miss): 18.6B v 23.0Be; Trade Balance (miss): 17.9B v 20.4Be; Exports M/M: -2.1% v -1.0%e; Imports M/M: 1.5% v +0.5%e
- (FI) Finland Nov Industrial Production M/M: -0.2% v +0.2%e; Y/Y: -0.8% v -0.2%e
- (FR) France Nov Industrial Production data (misses); M/M: -0.3% v +0.3%e; Y/Y: -2.6% v -1.9%e
- (FR) France Nov Manufacturing Production (misses) M/M: -0.6% v +0.4%e; Y/Y: -1.3% v -0.3%e
- (FR) France Nov Trade Balance: -3.2B v -4.5Be
- (TW) Taiwan Dec Trade Balance: $4.5B v $3.6Be; Exports Y/Y: -2.8% v +3.4%e; Imports Y/Y: -12.3% v -2.6%e
- (ES) Spain Nov Industrial Output NSA Y/Y: -0.1% v +0.5% prior; Industrial Output SA (miss) Y/Y: 0.0% v 0.6%e
- (CZ) Czech Dec CPI data (misses); M/M: -0.1% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 0.1% v 0.2%e
- (CZ) Czech Dec Unemployment Rate: 7.5% v 7.5%e
- (CH) Swiss Dec CPI data (misses); M/M: -0.5% v -0.4%e; Y/Y: -0.3% v -0.2%e
- (SE) Sweden Nov Industrial Production data (misses); M/M: -0.2% v +0.5%e; Y/Y: -5.0% v -3.6%e
- (NL) Netherlands Dec Manufacturing Production M/M: 0.5% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 0.6% v 0.5% prior
- (NO) Norway Dec CPI (inline) M/M: 0.0% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 2.1% v 2.1%e
- (UK) Nov Visible Trade Balance: -8.9B v -9.5Be; Total Trade Balance: -1.4B v -2.0Be; Trade Balance Non EU: -2.7B v -3.5Be
- (UK) Nov Industrial Production data (misses); M/M: -0.1% v +0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.1% v 1.6%e
- (UK) Nov Manufacturing Production (beats) M/M: 0.7% v +0.3%e; Y/Y: 2.7% v 2.3%e
- (GR) Greece Nov Industrial Production Y/Y: +2.3 v -0.4% prior

Fixed Income:
- (IN) India sold total INR140B in 2022, 2024, 2030 and 2040 bonds
- (ZA) South Africa sells 2025, 2046 and 2050 I/L bonds

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
**Equities**
Indices [Stoxx50 -0.9%
, FTSE 100 -0.2% at 6,555, DAX -0.1% at 9,824, CAC-40 -0.1% at 4,253, IBEX-35 -2.2% (Santander -10%), FTSE MIB -0.5% at 18,694, SMI flat at 9,141, S&P 500 Futures -0.1% at 2,051]

- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: Equity markets open slightly lower vs sharp gains seen on Thursday's session, with US payrolls data in focus; Markets hold losses amid speculation ECB staff said to study QE plan of about 500B; Santander opens down approx. 10% after confirming capital raise; Banks generally lower amid Santander capital raise and speculation related to new ECB capital rules; Broker commentary weighs on UK homebuilders; Shanghai Composite gives back more than 3% gains during session

By Sector
- Financials
[Santander SAN.ES -10% (capital raise)]
- Consumer Discretionary [Sodexo SW.FR -1% (Q1 sales below ests)]
- Technology [United Internet UTDI.DE +2% (broker commentary)]
- Healthcare [Merck KGaA MRK.DE +2% (Broker commentary)]
- Stoxx50 Sectors [Consumer Cyclical +0.8%, Industrials +0.5%, Telecom +0.3%, Utilities +0.2%, Financials flat, Consumer Non-Cyclical flat; Energy -0.7%, Technology -0.3%, Basic Materials -0.1%]

**Speakers**
- ECB staff study said to have been presented QE options to Governors
at the Jan 7th non-policy meeting; no decisions taken on QE decision. Said to have outlined 500B investment grade QE plan with the presentation focusing on govt debt purchases. Options included monthly or total QE purchases
- ECB said to propose new minimum capital ratios to banks and sent draft capital decision to banks
- Eurogroup chief Dijsselbloem: Reiterates view that a Greece exit from Euro Zone in not on the table
- Japan Cabinet approved extra budget for its current fiscal year (FY15) of 3.12T to stimulate its economy (as expected)
- Japan Fin Min Aso: Country must achieve its deficit reduction target in current fiscal year (FY15)
- China's Dec New Yuan loans may total approx CNY520B

**Currencies***
- Overall FX price action was subdued despite an active EU data calendar. Market participants' awaited US Dec payroll data for more clarity on first potential rate hike before taking fesh positions

**Political/In the Papers:
-(EU) ECB's Coeure (France): Lower crude prices are good news for the euro zone economy but raises challenges for the ECB inflation target; too early to make a call on QE; Situation in Greece is no reason to delay new ECB measures
- (EU) ECB's Draghi: ECB is reassessing its monetary policy stance in early 2015, new measures under consideration may include sovereign bond purchases - letter to EU lawmakers
- (GR) Greece Fin Min Hardouvelis: Greek banks lost 3B in deposits over last two months
- UK's MI5: Group of al-Qaeda militants in Syria planning "mass-casualty attacks" against the West

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (DE) S&P to review Germany sovereign rating (currently AAA, stable)
- S&P to review Malta sovereign rating (BBB+, stable)
- (PT) Moody's to review Portugal sovereign rating (Ba1, stable)
- Moody's to review Malta sovereign rating (A3, stable)
- (NL) Fitch might review Netherland sovereign rating (AAA, stable)
- Fitch might review Serbia (B+, stable)
- (RU) Fitch might review Russia sovereign rating (currently BBB, negative outlook)
- Canada rating agency DBRS on EU (AAA, stable)
- (RU) Russia Dec Sovereign Wealth Fund Balances: Reserve Fund: No est v $88.9B prior; Wellbeing Fund: No est v $80.0B prior
- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Nov Industrial Production M/M: No est v 8.9% prior; Y/Y: No est v 38.2% prior
- 06:00 (BR) Brazil Dec IBGE Inflation IPCA M/M: 0.8%e v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: 6.4%e v 6.6% prior
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Nov Trade Balance: No est v -825M prior
- 06:00 (UK) DMO to sell combined 3.0B in 1-month, 3-month and 6-month Bills
- 06:30 (IN) India Weekly Forex Reserves w/e Jan 2nd: No est v $ prior
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (EU) EU President Tusk in Estonia
- 08:00 (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) announces specific bonds to be issued in next week auction
- 08:15 (CA) Canada Dec Housing Starts (Annualized): 192.0Ke v 195.6K prior
- 08:15 (US) Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 08:30 (US) Dec Change in Nonfarm Payrolls: +240Ke v +321K prior Change in Private Payrolls: +225Ke v +314K prior; Change in Manufacturing Payrolls: +15Ke v +28K prior
- 08:30 (US) Dec Unemployment Rate: 5.7%e v 5.8% prior; Underemployment Rate: No est v 11.4% prior; Change in Household Employment: +310Ke v +4K prior
- 08:30 (US) Dec Average Hourly Earnings M/M: 0.2%e v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 2.2%e v 2.1% prior; Average Weekly Hours: 34.6e v 34.6 prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Dec Net Change in Employment: +14.5Ke v -10.7K prior; Unemployment Rate: 6.6%e v 6.6% prior
; Full Time Employment Change: No est v +5.7K prior; Part Time Employment Change: No est v -16.3K prior; Participation Rate: 66.0%e v 66.0% prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Nov Building Permits M/M: 0.8%e v 0.7% prior
- 08:40 (US) Fed's Evans on CNBC
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Dec Consumer Confidence Index: 94.0e v 92.9 prior
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Nov Industrial Production M/M: 0.3%e v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 2.3%e v 2.1% prior; Manufacturing Production Y/Y: 3.9%e v 3.9% prior
- 09:00 (DE) Germany CDU Leadership meets in Hamburg
- 10:00 (US) Nov Wholesale Inventories M/M: 0.3%e v 0.4% prior; Wholesale Trade Sales M/M: 0.0%e v 0.2% prior
- 10:00 (UK) Dec NIESR GDP Estimate: No est v 0.7% prior
- 13:20 (US) Fed's Lacker on 2015 economic outlook



 

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


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