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Friday January 9, 2015 - 16:57:30 GMT
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| | Email US Mid-Session Update: Decent Dec Payrolls Fail to Offset Slow Wage Growth Concerns

Fri, 09 Jan 2015 11:29 AM EST

***Economic Data***
- (IE) Ireland Nov Industrial Production M/M: 4.6 v 9.8% prior; Y/Y: 36.3 v 41.4% prior
- (BR) Brazil Dec IBGE Inflation IPCA M/M: 0.8% v 0.8%e; Y/Y: 6.4% v 6.4%e
- (PT) Portugal Nov Trade Balance: -0.8B v -0.9B prior
- (EU) ECB: 18 Banks to repay total 14.2B in 3-year LTRO Funds vs. 7.1B prior
- (IN) India Weekly Forex Reserves w/e Jan 2nd: $319.2B v $319.7B prior
- (CA) Canada Dec Housing Starts (Annualized): 180.6K v 192.0Ke
- (US) Dec Change in Nonfarm Payrolls: +252K v +240Ke; Change in Private Payrolls: +240K v +225Ke; Change in Manufacturing Payrolls: +17K v +15Ke
- (US) Dec Unemployment Rate: 5.6% v 5.7%e; Underemployment Rate: 11.2% v 11.4% prior; Change in Household Employment: +111K v +310Ke
- (US) Dec Average Hourly Earnings M/M: -0.2% v +0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.7% v 2.2%e; Average Weekly Hours: 34.6 v 34.6e
- (CA) Canada Dec Net Change in Employment: -4.3K v +14.5Ke; Unemployment Rate: % v 6.6%e; Full Time Employment Change: +53.5K v +5.7K prior; Part Time Employment Change: -57.7K v -16.3K prior; Participation Rate: 65.9% v 66.0%e
- (CA) Canada Nov Building Permits M/M: -13.8% v 0.5%e
- (MX) Mexico Nov Industrial Production M/M: 0.2% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 1.8% v 2.1%e; Manufacturing Production Y/Y: 3.6% v 3.9%e

Nervousness about flagging US wage growth has driven equity declines this morning, with European indices closing at their lows and the three leading US indices all down more than 1%. The 10-year yield is down nearly seven basis points, putting it back below 2%. As of writing, the DJIA is down 1.14%, the S&P500 is down 1.05% and the Nasdaq is down 1.0%.

Dissection of the December jobs report focused chiefly on the hourly earnings component. The very healthy November gain in earnings was cut in half by revisions (to +0.2% from the preliminary +0.4%), and December earnings were -0.2%. The data pulled the y/y growth rate to its lowest level in more than two years (+1.7%). Note that the Fed is on record with its desire to see earnings growth accelerating to +3% y/y to help it accomplish its 2% inflation target.

Following the jobs report, Fed dove Evans defended his repeated calls to hold off on rate hikes until 2016 despite lower unemployment and sustained payroll gains. Evans said he was still worried about low inflation and said the 2% target would not likely be reached before mid-2016 or even 2017. Evans said wage growth of 3-4% was needed, well below the rate seen in today's jobs numbers.

Crude prices are racking up fresh five-year lows this morning as markets accentuate the negative in the US jobs data. Brent crude futures are below $49.70, down over 3%. WTI crude is down 2.5% around $47.50, but still above Wednesday's low of $46.83. Analysts note that the Oil Services fund OIH is just above the Dec 16th low of $33.72, which coincided with a rebound in high-yield and equity markets.

Macy's rolled out a new strategy to focus on popular services such as in-store pickups for online orders and shipping from stores. Macy's said it would close 14 stores in spring and cut some jobs, but was vague about the workforce reductions. The company also reported SSS for the holiday period rose 2.7%. Shares of the retailer are down more than 3%.

***Looking Ahead***
- Agencies to publish sovereign ratings on Germany, Malta, Netherland, Portugal and Russia
- 10:00 (UK) Dec NIESR GDP Estimate: No est v 0.7% prior
- 13:20 (US) Fed's
Lacker on 2015 economic outlook


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