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Wednesday January 14, 2015 - 11:08:58 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com EU Mid-Market Update: ECB's OMT Mechanism wins conditional backing from ECJ legal advisor; no obstacles seen for ECB to enact QE


Wed, 14 Jan 2015 5:22 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- EU Court of Justice (ECJ) gives Non-Binding Advice on ECB's OMT Mechanism and wins conditional backing from legal advisor; Euro hits 9-year lows and European rally from steep initially losses as no obstacle seen for ECB to enact QE
- World Bank Global Economic Prospects (GEP) Report cuts both 2015 and 2016 GDP growth outlook (Cut 2015 global GDP growth forecast to 3.0% from 3.4%, cut 2016 to 3.3% from 3.5%)
- Falling commodities prices feed Asia risk aversion (Copper prices hit a five-year low)

**Economic data***
- (IN) India Dec Wholesale Prices (WPI) (better)Y/Y: 0.1% v 0.4%e

- (FI) Finland Dec CPI M/M: -0.1% v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: 0.5% v 0.7%e
- (FR) France Dec CPI data (higher-than-expected)M/M: 0.1% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 0.1% v 0.0%e; CPI Ex-Tobacco Index: 125.8 v 125.7 prior
- (HU) Hungary Dec CPI (miss) M/M: -0.7% v -0.3%e; Y/Y: -0.9% v -0.6%e
- (IT) Italy Dec Final CPI (inline) M/M: 0.0% v 0.0% prelim; Y/Y: 0.0% v 0.0% prelim; CPI Ex Tobacco Index: 107.0 v 107.0 prior
- (EU) Euro Zone Nov Industrial Production (beats) M/M: 0.2% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: -0.4% v -0.7%e

Fixed income:
- (GR) Greece Debt Agency (PDMA) auction (cautious)
; sold 812.5M vs. 625M indicated in 13-week Bills; Avg Yield: 2.15% v 1.90% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.78x v 1.93x prior

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
**Equities**
Indices [Stoxx50 +0.3%
, FTSE 100 -1% at 6,479, DAX flat at 9,948, CAC-40 +0.1% at 4,294, IBEX-35 +0.4% at 10,002, FTSE MIB +0.6% at 18,818, SMI -0.1% at 9,277, Athens Stock Exchange flat, S&P 500 Futures flat at 2,015]

- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: Equity markets open lower amid US reversal, lower copper prices and ahead of European Court of Justice commentary on ECB bond purchases; Markets initially pare losses after EU court ruling; Sharp drop in copper prices weighs on miners (Antofagasta -10%); Cautious broker commentary weighs on various German firms (Commerzbank, BMW, RWE, Metro); Burberry Q3 retail sales above ests; US bank earnings during NY morning (JPMorgan, Wells Fargo)

By Sector
- Consumer Discretionary
[Air France AF.FR -1% (job cut speculation), Metro MEO.DE -1% (broker commentary); SuperGroup SGP.UK +9% (11-week sales +17.8%), Kuoni KUNN.CH +6% (to exit tour operating business), Tesco TSCO.UK +2.5% (comments from Bill Ackman)]
- Industrials [BMW BMW.DE -1.5% (broker commentary)]
- Financials [Commerzbank CBK.DE -2.5% (broker commentary)]
- Utilities [RWE RWE.DE -2% (broker commentary)]
- Energy [Premier Oil PMO.UK -7% (write down related to oil prices)]
- Stoxx50 Sectors [Energy -2.3%, Utilities -2%, Technology -1%, Industrials -1%, Basic Materials -1%, Consumer Non-Cyclical -0.8%, Financials -0.7%, Telecom -0.4%, Consumer Cyclical -0.4%]

**Speakers**
- EU Court of Justice (ECJ) gives Non-Binding Advice on ECB's OMT Mechanism and it seemed to have won conditional backing from the court advisor. In principle OMT was in line with EU Treaty but certain conditions might be needed to be met
. ECB has 'broad discretion' when implementing monetary policy. OMT bond buying scheme is necessary and proportionate as ECB does not take on risk making it vulnerable to insolvency. ECB must name the extraordinary circumstances to launch OMT and purchases cannot be disproportionate to its objective
- ECB commented on ECJ OMT decision: Court opinion was an important milestone; OMT is ready and available
- ECB chief Draghi: ECB was ready to purchase govt bonds; All Council members were determined to fulfill its mandate but there were different views on how to fulfill the mandate. Expansive monetary policy necessary to achieve mandate of price stability. ECB wass not there to give advantages to one country or another
- ECB's Visco (Italy) noted risk of downward spiral of stagflation or deflation. He also stated that ECB was considering a wide range of asset purchases and Govt bonds must be seen as essential for our purposes. Oil price decline impacted inflation more than Euro decline
- Italy President Napolitano formally resigned
- Russia Econ Min Ulyukayev: Russia faces 'fairly high' risk of S&P downgrade
- Russia Dep Econ Min Vedev: Inflation might peak in March or April between 15-17% range
- Iran President Rouhani: Country to build two additional nuclear facilities in Bushehr

**Currencies***
- The European Court of Justice legal opinion on ECB's OMT bond buying schedule did not throw any cold water on next week central bank policy meeting.
The ruling gave conditional backing from legal advisor. The EUR/USD hits fresh 9-year lows as dealers noted that European Court gvae Draghi the 'green light' on QE possible as soon as next week's policy meeting
- The World Bank cuts in both 2015 and 2016 GDP outlook hammered the basic commodities. Copper hit a 5-year low and this feed into AUD and CAD currencies.
- USD/JPY fell for the 4th straight session to test a one-month low of 116.69 on risk aversion flows from the volatility exhibited in global equity markets. The pair was back above the 177 handle as the NY morning began as the European Court ruling helped the European stocks recover from initially steep losses

**Political/In the Papers:
- (US) Fed's Kocherlakota (dove, 2014 FOMC dissenting vote): Reiterates he does not favor rate hikes in 2015;

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (PL) Poland Central Bank (NBP) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Base Rate unchanged at 2.00%
- 05:30 (DE) Germany to sell 5.0B in 2025 Bunds
- 06:00 (ZA) South Africa Nov Retail Sales M/M: 0.9%e v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 2.0%e v 3.4% prior
- 06:00 (BR) Brazil Nov Retail Sales M/M: 0.2%e v 1.0% prior; Y/Y: -0.4%e v 1.8% prior

- 06:00 (BR) Brazil Nov Broad Retail Sales M/M: 0.9%e v 1.7% prior; Y/Y: -3.5%e v -2.6% prior
- 06:30 (CL) Chile Central Bank Trader Survey
- 06:45 (SE) Sweden Fin Min Andersson
- 07:00 (UK) PM Cameron weekly question Time in House of Commons
- 07:00 (EU) NATO's Stoltenberg with German Chancellor Merkel
- 07:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Jan 9th: No est v 11.1% prior
- 07:00 (RU) Russia cancels planned OFZ Bond auction
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Dec M3 Money Supply M/M: 2.5%e v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 8.2%e v 8.4% prior
- 08:00 (US) Fed's Plosser speaks on the Economy in Philadelphia
- 08:00 (DE) German Finance Ministry brief Parliament on Greece
- 08:15 (US) Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 08:30 (US) Dec Advance Retail Sales M/M: -0.1%e v +0.7% prior; Retail Sales Ex Auto M/M: 0.0%e v 0.5% prior; Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas: 0.5%e v 0.6% prior; Retail Sales Control Group: 0.4%e v 0.6% prior
- 08:30 (US) Dec Import Price Index M/M: -2.7%e v -1.5% prior; Y/Y: -5.2%e v -2.3% prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Dec Teranet/National Bank HPI M/M: No est v -0.3% prior; Y/Y: No est v 5.2% prior; House Price Index: No est v 167.51 prior
- 08:45 (EU) NATO's Stoltenberg press conference
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Oct Gross Fixed Investment: 5.1%e v 5.7% prior
- 09:15 (UK) BOE Gov Carney testifies in Parliament
- 10:00 (US) Nov Business Inventories: 0.3%e v 0.2% prior
- 10:00 (PL) Poland Central Bank (NBP) post rate decision press conference
- 10:30 (US) Weekly DOE Crude Oil Inventories
- 10:30 (SE) Sweden Fin Min Andersson debates opponents
- 12:00 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel addresses Renewable Energy Lobby in Berlin
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $13B in 30-Year Bond Reopening
- 14:00 (US) Fed's Beige Book

- 16:45 (NZ) New Zealand Dec Food Prices M/M: No est v -0.5% prior
- 17:30 (EU) Eurogroup chief Dijsselbloem in Seoul, South Korea
- 19:30 (AU) Australia Dec Employment Change: +5.0Ke v +42.7K prior; Unemployment Rate: 6.3%e v 6.3% prior
- 20:00 (KR) Bank of Korea (BoK) Interest Rate Decision; Expected to leave 7-Day Repo Rate unchanged 2.00%

- 22:35 (JP) Japan to sell 3-Month Bill
- (CO) Colombia Central Bank Economist Survey



 

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