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ECONOMIC DATA ANALYSIS - ECB TO ANNOUNCE QE, BUT WILL IT EXCEED EXPECTATIONS?

ECONOMIC DATA ANALYSIS  FRIDAY 16 JANUARY  2015

 

ECB TO ANNOUNCE QE, BUT WILL IT EXCEED EXPECTATIONS? 

  • ECB to deliver QE following European Court of Justice’s ruling on OMT
  • Market attention to shift to the Greek elections as Syriza leads
  • Pick-up in domestic wage growth to provide counterbalance to falling oil prices


Risk sentiment at a crossroads... Amid ongoing concerns over the global inflation outlook, political tensions in the euro area and heightened currency instability following the SNB’s surprise move, financial markets have endured another volatile week. The current risk-off sentiment has continued, with US and UK bond yields falling close to all-time lows. The coming week contains two of the biggest events of the year and perhaps represents a fork in the road for global market sentiment, with the outcome of both the ECB meeting and Greek elections likely to dictate the direction sentiment takes from here. 

ECB to finally deliver QE...The European Court of Justice’s opinion this week on the legality of the ECB’s OMT programme all but gave the green light for the start of sovereign debt purchases in the euro area. Expectations that the ECB is about to embark on a substantial stimulus package have been further fuelled by the SNB’s surprise decision to remove the EUR/CHF 1.20 floor on Thursday. The ECB Council meet in the coming week and we expect President Draghi will not want to disappoint markets. Although we do not think he will explicitly state the size of the programme or give full details of the framework, he is likely to restate the ECB’s intention of raising the size of its balance sheet back to its 2012 level, an increase of €1 trillion from the current level. Allowing for the impact of the other measures already announced, this could imply around €600bn of QE. So as not to disappoint markets, President Draghi is likely to indicate that the balance sheet size could be increased further if required.

Spotlight to shift to Greece... Following the ECB meeting, concerns over the outcome of the upcoming elections in Greece (25th January) could come to the fore. While opinion polls suggest that the populist far-left party Syriza is in the lead, they are still unlikely to gain an outright majority which should ease fears over a ‘Grexit’.

Euro area releases to take a back seat... Meanwhile, euro area survey data will provide first readings on January economic activity. These include ‘flash’ manufacturing and services PMIs (Fri.) for the region as a whole, and for France and Germany. The ZEW (Tues.) will give further updates on Germany. We expect most of these will be up at least modestly from December, due in part to improved sentiment in financial markets and the boost from lower oil prices.

MPC minutes to show little change... While the outlook for UK monetary policy remains impacted by external factors, rhetoric from the MPC is unlikely to show a significant shift in the policy debate. The January vote is likely to have remained 7-2 in favour of no immediate change in policy. However, the minutes may hint at emerging differences within the majority. For now, markets are likely to remain preoccupied by the fall in oil prices and the associated weakness of headline inflation. Emerging signs of wage growth and the recent downward revisions to productivity, however, suggest that the medium-term risks to inflation are not all biased to the downside. In this context, labour market data for November (Weds.) could form the highlight of the week in the UK. We forecast these to show a further fall in the unemployment rate and an acceleration in earnings growth (see back page).

In a holiday-shortened week in the US, the dearth of key releases and FOMC members entering purdah ahead of the following week’s FOMC meeting will limit attention to second-tier housing data. Firm pick-ups in housing starts, building permits, existing home sales and the NAHB housing index should support expectations that the recovery in the housing market has further to go.

Elsewhere...The release of Q4 China GDP is forecast to show the slowdown in activity continued. However, with further easing measures from the PBoC already expected, the importance of this release is somewhat mitigated.

 

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This material has been prepared for information purposes only and Lloyds TSB, Bank of Scotland, their directors, officers and employees are not responsible for any consequences arising from any reliance upon such information. Under no circumstances should this material be treated as an offer or solicitation to offer, to buy or sell any product or enter into any transaction. If you receive information from us which is inconsistent with other information which you have received from us, you should refer this to your Lloyds TSB or Bank of Scotland Relationship Manager for clarification.

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
US/JP- Holiday
All Day flash PMIs
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes

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Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




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