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Monday January 19, 2015 - 11:49:19 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com EU Mid-Market Update: Markets await ECB decision on QE


Mon, 19 Jan 2015 5:17 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) temporarily suspended new margin trading accounts; Shanghai Composite has worst session in 6 years (-7.7%)
- Draghi said to trying to calm German QE concerns by focusing on sovereign bond purchases through the national central banks
- US markets closed for Martin Luther King holiday

**Economic data***
- (JP) Japan Dec Consumer Confidence Index (beats): 38.8 v 38.5e (first monthly improvement in five months)
- (JP) Japan Dec Nationwide Dept Sales Y/Y: -1.7% v -1.0% prior; Tokyo Dept Store Sales Y/Y: +0.3% v +0.3% prior
- (CH) Swiss Dec Producer & Import Prices (beats) M/M: -0.4% v -0.8%e; Y/Y: % v -2.1%
- (HK) Hong Kong Dec Unemployment Rate (Seasonally Adj): 3.3% v 3.3%e
- (NO) Norway Q4 Existing Homes Q/Q: 0.5% v 0.1% prior
- (EU) Euro Zone Nov Current Account SA: 18.1B v 19.5B prior; Current Account NSA: 24.6B v 29.7B prior
- (BR) Brazil Jan IGP-M Inflation 2nd Preview: 0.6% v 0.5%e
- (EU) Euro Zone Nov Construction Output M/M: -0.1 v +1.1% prior; Y/Y: 2.2 v 0.3% prior

Fixed Income:
- None seen

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
**Equities**
Indices [Stoxx50 +0.3% at 3,211
, FTSE 100 +0.1% at 6,557, DAX +0.4% at 10,211, CAC-40 +0.1% at 4,384, IBEX-35 +0.3% at 10,069, FTSE MIB +0.7% at 19,384, SMI +3.5% at 8,177, S&P 500 Futures -0.1% at 2,004]

- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: Italian bank shares up after reports of reform plans on voting rules (PMI.IT fails to open); European stocks broadly higher despite record drop in Shanghai on QE expectations; DAX hits new record high; Oil stocks head lower over rising OPEC output.

By Sector
- Consumer Discretionary
[Stora Enso STERV.FI +6.8% (guidance above expectations)]
- Healthcare [Carmat ALCAR.FR +17.1% (successful first bioprothetic transplant)]
- Industrials [Balfour Beatty BBY.UK +0.7% (contract win), Schindler SCHP.CH +2.7% (guidance above expectations)]
- Technology [Altran ALT.FR -10% (CEO resigns)]
- Telecom [Telefonica TEF.ES +4.2% (speculation over O2 sale)]

**Speakers**
- ECB's Nowotny (Austria):
No price stability in EMU at this time but Euro Zone would NOT be in deflation in 2015; policy options were limited. Euro Zone inflation was significantly below the 2.0% inflation target but did not see deflation for the whole 2015 period. Might see many negative inflation rates in first few months of 2015
- Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) Gov Ingves: Inflation seen below the 2.0% target but no deflation seen in the short-term. Net effect of lower oil prices seen as a positive for the domestic economy
- S&P sovereign analyst Kreamer: SNB removal of EUR/CHF floor risks a deepening of deflation in country
- Poland Central Bank's Bartkiewicz: Some commercial banks to join upcoming meeting on CHF-denominated loans. Says PLN currency (Zloty) decline was not affecting the banking industry but banks should agree to renegotiate loan deals. CHF/PLN currency pair could stay above the 4.0 level for the medium term (**Note: Last at 4.20)
- Hungary ruling Fidesz party leader Rogan: Country might decide on Euro adoption by 2020
- European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) cuts Russia 2015 GDP outlook to -4.8%; sees broad hit to growth from oil price decline, sanctions and weakening investor confidence
- Czech Central Bank Q4 Lending Survey: Banks eased credit standards in all monitored segments during quarter. Expected credit standards to further ease in Q1
- China sovereign wealth fund (CIC) Chairman Ding: Stronger USD might accelerate CNY currency (Yuan) internationalization.- Closely watching US economy; additional risks come from bipartisan politics. Oil price below $50 is a long-term negative for US economy
- Japan LDP Ruling Party official Yamaoto: BOJ did not need to take additional easing measures at this time; it has already taken bold measures. Govt can declare an end to deflation in FY15 but BOJ should maintain its QQE program through most of 2017
- EU official: Sunday talks with Iran were both serious and useful. P5+1 powers to hold discussions with Iran in early February
- Iran Oil Min Zanganeh: Not seeking an emergency OPEC meeting but in contact with members in regards to oil price decline

**Currencies***
- The focus was on the upcoming ECB meeting on Thursday
and what form the likely QE would consist of. Draghi said trying to calm German concerns by focusing on sovereign bond purchases through the national central banks. ECB member Nowotny noted that the central bank's policy options "were limited".
-The EUR/USD consolidated after hitting 11-year lows last week with the pair back above the 116 handle.
- Both Italy and Spain 10-year gov't yields began the session hitting fresh record lows
- The USD/JPY pair was little changed just above the 117 handle ahead of the BoJ policy meeting on Wednesday

**Political/In the Papers:
- ECB said to have come up with a QE bond buying plan that would acceptable to Germany; would include individual national banks purchasing their own country's bonds

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (EU) EU Foreign Ministers hold meeting in Brussels
- 05:30 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Weekly Economists Survey
- 05:30 (NL) Netherlands Debt Agency (DSTA) to sell 2.0-4.0B in 3-month and 6-month Bills
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Dec PPI M/M: No est v -0.6% prior; Y/Y: No est v -1.1% prior
- 06:00 (RO Romania to sell 5.8% 2027 Bonds
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:15 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel
- 08:00 (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) announces size of upcoming auctions
- 08:15 Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Nov Int'l Securities Transactions: No est v C$9.5B prior
- 08:50 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) to sell combined 5.6-6.8B in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month Bills
- 09:35 (EU) ECB calls for bids in 7-day main Refi
- 09:45 (EU) ECB announces weekly purchases under its covered bond program 3 (CBPP3)
- 11:00 (FR) ECB's Coeure (France) participates in panel discussion in Dublin
- 16:00 (NZ) New Zealand Q4 NZIER Business Opinion Survey: No est v 19 prior
- 21:00 (CN) China Dec YTD Urban Fixed Assets: No est v 15.8% prior
- 21:00 (CN) China Dec Retail Sales Y/Y: 11.7%e v 11.7% prior; Retail Sales YTD Y/Y: 12.0%e v 12.0% prior
- 21:00 (CN) China Dec Industrial Production Y/Y: 7.4%e v 7.2% prior; Industrial Production YTD Y/Y: 8.2%e v 8.3% prior
- 21:00 (CN) China Q4 GDP Q/Q: 1.7%e v 1.9% prior; Y/Y: 7.2%e v 7.3% prior; GDP YTD Y/Y: 7.3%e v 7.4% prior
- 22:30 (HK) Hong Kong to sell 3-month and 6-month Bills
- 22:45 (JP) Japan to sell 5-Year JGB Bonds
- 23:30 (TW) Taiwan to sell NT$40B in 20-Year Bonds

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
US/JP- Holiday
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13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes

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Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


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