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TradeTheNews.com EU Mid-Market Update: BOE dissenting hawks change view and move back into majority on MPC


Wed, 21 Jan 2015 5:20 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- Bank of Japan (BOJ) maintains Monetary Base at 80T (as expected); cuts inflation forecast and extended the deadline on loan programs aimed at boosting bank lending
- Hopes of ECB action tomorrow dampened by Nowotny comments
- BOE hawks clip their wings believing now any rate hike would risk persistent low inflation

**Economic data***
- (JP) Japan Dec Supermarket Sales Y/Y: -1.8% v -0.7% prior (10th straight decline)
- (ZA) South Africa Dec CPI data (better); M/M: -0.2% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 5.3% v 5.5%e
- (UK) Dec Jobless Claims Change (beats): -29.7K v -25.0Ke (25 straight month of improvement); Claimant Count Rate: 2.6% v 2.6%e (lowest level since Jun 2008)
- (UK) Nov Average Weekly Earnings 3M/Y: 1.7% v 1.7%e; Weekly Earnings ex Bonus 3M/Y: 1.8% v 1.9%e
- (UK) Nov ILO Unemployment Rate 3Mths (beats): 5.8% v 5.9%e (lowest level since Jun 2008); Employment Change 3M/3M: +37K v +74Ke
- (UK) BOE Minutes: Voted 9-0 (unanimous) to leaves Interest Rates unchanged at 0.50%
- (UK) BOE Minutes: Voted 9-0 (unanimous) to maintain Asset Purchase Target at 375B
- (CH) Swiss Jan Credit Suisse ZEW Expectations Survey: -10.8 v -4.9 prior

Fixed Income:
- No major events seen

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
**Equities**
Indices [Stoxx50 -0.3%
, DAX -0.3% at 10,222, CAC-40 -0.5% at 4,425, IBEX-35 -0.5% at 10,229, FTSE MIB -0.1% at 19,636, SMI -1.8% at 8,035, Athens Stock Exchange -1.5%, S&P 500 Futures flat at 2,015]

- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: Equity markets open higher with Thursday's ECB meeting in focus, Nowotny seemingly downplays expectations; Markets later decline led by SMI, as Swiss firms give little clarity regarding outlooks; ASML shares supported by outlook and buyback; Italian cooperative banks continue rally as PM Renzi approved banking reforms; SABMiller Q3 organic lager volumes below ests; Oil companies supported by rise in prices; Hochschild Mining to hedge 2015 silver sales

By Sector
- Technology
[ASML ASML.NL +4% (outlook, buyback); United Internet UTDI.DE -3% (broker commentary)]
- Industrials [Alstom ALO.FR +3% (Q3 sales rose, reaffirmed outlook); SGS SGSN.CH -2.5% (FY adj op income below ests), - HeidelbergCement HEI.DE -2% (broker commentary)]
- Materials [Lonza LONN.CH +2% (FY results in line)]
- Consumer Discretionary [Pearson PSON.UK +2% (reaffirmed FY14 outlook, issued initial FY15 outlook)]
- Energy [Drax DRX.UK -3% (broker commentary)]
- Stoxx50 sectors [Utilities -0.9%, Basic Materials -0.6% Financials -0.5% Telecom -0.3%, Consumer Cyclical -0.3%, Energy -0.2%, Industrials -0.2%; Technology +2%, Consumer Non-Cyclical +0.4%]

**Speakers**
- BOE Minutes saw members Weale and McCafferty move to back into the majority on keeping rates unchanged;
They believe there was risk rate rise would prolong period of low inflation (Note: The two officials had pushed for a rate hike since Aug). Further stimulus if bank rate followed market curves. All members were alert to the risk that low inflation might become entrenched. Saw even chance of annual fall in prices during H1 2015. Medium term inflation risks may have shifted upwards
- ECB's Nowotny: ECB meeting will be an interesting one, but nothing to get overexcited about. He reiterated that did not expect deflation in Euro Zone. Harder to fight deflation than inflation, so must watch inflation developments 'closely'
- UBS's Weber (former ECB member): No matter what Draghi does, do not expect to see inflation rates close to target in Europe for years
- Spain PM Rajoy cites tomorrow's Q4 jobless data as sign of recovery
- German BDI industrial Federation forecasted 2015 GDP at 1.5%
- Russia Deputy PM Dvorkovich: Have enough FX reserves and anti-crisis measures in place and reiterated view that Capital Controls not seen as effective
- Russia Central Bank denied press report it planned to cut interest rates in Q1
- Poland Fin Min Szczurek: Too early to assess impact on CHF-denominated loans following SNB abandonment of EUR/CHF floor
- Poland Central Bank's Hausner (hawkish): Better to cut Polish interest rates sooner rather than later. Need not wait for updated staff projections
- Czech Central Bank Gov Singer: Core inflation now 'safely' in positive numbers. Central Banks have the tools to manage inflation at lower zero bound
- Nigeria Traders Body (FMDA) said to call meeting on NGN Currency (Naira) and how to keep market open
- BOJ Gov Kuroda post rate decision press conference reiterated that it's positive economic (virtuous) cycle remained intact; no change in underlying trend in Japan CPI. BOJ to assess risks and adjust policy as needed. Reiterated CPI likely to reach the 2% target in mid FY15/16. Some Board members were cautious in achieving the time frame for inflation target. Falling oil prices should support global growth but limit CPI gains in short-term. NOT considering cutting interest rates paid to excess reserves parked at BoJ
- Iraq Oil Min Adel Abdel Mehdi: No justification for decline in long-term oil prices, believes prices have reached floor

**Currencies***
- Hopes of ECB action tomorrow was somewhat dampened by Nowotny comments after he stated that there was no need to get overexcited about the meeting
. The session saw some re-positioning of FX and fixed-income bets to be on the safe side. EUR/USD steady at 1.1565 ahead of the NY morning.
- The GBP currency was volatile in its price action. The GBP/USD hot session lows of 1.5077 after BOE hawks (dissenters) moved back into the majority believing now any rate hike would risk persistent low inflation. The GBP was unable to hit fresh 17-month lows despite the dovish MPC. Cable found some balance after its Dec Jobless claims improved for the 26th straight month. GBP/USD was hovering around the 1.51 level just ahead of the NY morning.
- The USD/JPY was softer in late Asia after BoJ statement did not provide any significant surprises on Japan's QQE program, Kuroda noted during his press conference that it was not considering cutting interest rates paid to excess reserves parked at BoJ. USD/JPY at 117.73, off by approx. 1% from its Asian open

**Political/In the Papers:
- (IT) Italy PM Renzi confirms discussions on the banking sector; discussed urgent measures; approves measures on Popolari banks
- (US) US President Obama State of Union comments: Economy is growing and creating jobs at the fastest pace since 1999; Outlines economic platform called "Middle Class Economics

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (CH) World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos (thru Sat)
- (CH) Swiss Government holds weekly Meeting
- (CH) China Premier Li keynote speech at Davos
- (US) EU Foreign Min Mogheriniin Washinton DC
- (BR) Brazil Central Bank (BCB) Interest Rate Decision (no set time); Expected to raise Selic Rate Target by 50bps to 12.25%
- 05:30 (DE) Germany to sell 5.0B in new 0.0% 2020 BOBL
- 05:30 (PT) Portugal Debt Agency (IGCP) to sell combined 0.75-1.0B in 6-month and 12-month Bills

- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Jan 16th: No est v 49.1% prior
- 07:00 (UK) BOE's Shafik in Brussels on financial markets
- 07:45 (US) Chain Store Sales
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Dec Sold Industrial Output M/M: -5.3%e v -7.5% prior; Y/Y: 5.2%e v 0.3% prior; Construction Output Y/Y: 4.5%e v -1.6% prior
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Dec PPI M/M: -0.5%e v -0.5% prior; Y/Y: -2.1%e v -1.6% prior
- 08:15 Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 08:30 (US) Dec Housing Starts: 1.040Me v 1.028M prior; Building Permits: 1.060Me v 1.052M prior (revised from 1.035M)
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Nov Wholesale Trade Sales M/M: 0.0%e v 0.1% prior
- 08:55 (US) Weekly Redbook Sales
- 09:30 (EU) EU's Juncker with Norway PM Solberg
- 10:00 (CA) Bank of Canada (BOC) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Interest Rates unchanged at 1.00%
- 10:15 (CA) Bank of Canada (BOC) Gov Poloz post rate decision press conference
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 4-Week Bills
- 11:45 (NO) Norway PM Solberg with NATO Sec Gen Stoltenberg press conference
- 16:00 (NZ) New Zealand Dec ANZ Job Advertisements M/M: No est v -0.1% prior
- 16:30 (NZ) New Zealand Dec Business Manufacturing PMI: No est v 55.2 prior
- 18:30 (AU) Australia to sell Bills
- 19:30 (TW) Taiwan Dec Unemployment Rate: 3.9%e v 3.9% prior
- 22:35 (JP) Japan to sell 3-Month Bill
- 22:45 (JP) Japan to sell 20-Year JGB Bonds



 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Mon 20 Nov
14:00 EZ- Draghi Speech
15:00 US- Leading Indicators
Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
US/JP- Holiday
All Day flash PMIs
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes

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Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


John M. Bland, MBA
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