User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Tuesday August 30, 2005 - 10:51:42 GMT
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange -

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition

Key Points
• USD retains yesterday’s gains, but oil price background continues to create uncertainty.

• USD-JPY has some upside risk while above 110.80.

• Weak CBI retail survey/consumer credit leave GBP weaker.

• US consumer confidence and FOMC minutes feature today.

Market Outlook

0 The ongoing rise in oil prices remains at centre stage and this is clouding FX market perceptions to a certain degree. Given the impact oil price strength could have on future economic conditions the market is not likely to take current economic data as a cast iron indication of what will happen in the future. However, the fears about the possible impact of hurricane Katrina were downgraded a little yesterday and this partly explains the recovery seen in the USD.

For the time being the market seems happy to view the current situation as one where Asian currencies are inversely correlated to oil prices. The USD is also generally seen as a loser against European currencies in the face of stronger oil prices, in part because the USD has most to lose if economic conditions in general are hit. Of the majors, the USD has benefited the most this year from the way economic conditions have developed in the US and elsewhere (reflected in the move in rate differentials in the USD’s favour). Anything that threatens this backdrop should be negative for the USD, even though most economies suffer from energy price strength. However, one supporting factor for the US in general is that typically, if there is any major retreat in emerging markets in Asia, the flow back into the USD investor base normally offers some generalised USD support, so it is not a one-way argument against the USD.

This degree of uncertainty is likely to remain in place in the short-term and the market will need some technical developments to trigger some kind of momentum. In this regard, EUR-USD needs to breach either 1.2125 or 1.2345 to generate some interest. 1.2160 and 1.2270 are the closer parameters of interest. On the data front, the ISM manufacturing and the August employment report feature in the US this week, although they may need to be unusual to change market perceptions about the US economy, especially given overriding concerns about energy prices. The market will perhaps be more vulnerable to weak data.

The JPY has underperformed since the Asian session began this morning and USD-JPY will retain some upside risk as long as 110.80 holds early on today. Data last night was not that helpful for the JPY, with the unemployment rate higher than expected and consumer spending softer. However, the employment data was fairly solid and the job-to-applicants ratio rose to a fresh 13-yr high, suggesting good labour demand.

GBP has been weaker following a poor CBI retail survey last night and a softer than expected consumer credit outcome this morning. Mortgage approvals were more resilient, although a move above 100k is needed to suggest genuine strength and this may be difficult to sustain. A balance of 18% of retailers reported lower sales volumes on a y/y basis in August and this left the 3-mth moving average for this series also at -18, the lowest level since the survey began 22 years ago. 0.6835 needs to break on EUR-GBP to keep the move going, while cable will retain downside risk today while below 1.7885.

Day Ahead
US – consumer confidence is due and the market will be keen to see whether it reflects the downturn reported in last week’s Michigan sentiment survey. Factory orders will be watched for any revisions to the durables data already released. The latest FOMC minutes are also due. Any discussion about the degree of monetary policy accommodation still in place will be looked for, although FOMC members have been largely reluctant to go into such detail so far.

Data/event EDT Consensus*

CA Industrial PI (Jun) m/m 08.30 +0.2%
CA Raw materials PI (Jun) m/m 08.30 +2.0%
CA Current account (Q2) 08.30 C$4.9bn
US Consumer confidence (Aug) 10.00 101.8
US Factory orders (Jul) m/m 10.00 -1.7%
US Minutes of Aug 9 FOMC meeting 14.00
US ABC consumer conf (w/e Aug 28) 17.00 -9 last
JP Ind prod (Jul, prel) m/m 19.50 -0.5%
AU Building approvals (Jul) m/m 21.30 -1.0%
AU Current account (Q2) 21.30 -A$13.6bn

Latest data Actual Consensus*
GB CBI retail trades survey (Aug) -18 -18 last
JP Unemployment rate (Jul) 4.4% +4.2%
JP PCE workers (Jul) y/y -3.3% +0.8%
JP Retail sales (Jul) y/y +0.6% +2.5%
AU Trade balance (Jul) -A$1.5bn -A$1.4bn
AU Retail sales (Jul) m/m 0.0% +0.3%
GB Consumer credit (Jul) £1.2bn £1.5bn
GB Mortgage approvals (Jul, sa) 97k 95k
IT CPI (Aug, prel) y/y +2.0% +2.1%
*Consensus unless stated

2005, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.40 EDT Monday May 31 2005


Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 23 July 2018
A 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
Tue 24 July 2018
AFlash PMIs
Wed 25 July 2018
A 08:00 DE- IFO Survey
A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 26 July 2018
AA 11:45 EZ- European Central Bank Decision
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
A 12:30 US- Durable Goods
Fri 27 July 2018
AA 12:30 US- GDP
A 14:00 US- Final University of Michigan

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner,

Global-View Affiliate Program

We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.

Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.

Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.

Contact us

Start trading with forex broker Markets Cube

Max McKegg's Daily Forex Trading Forecasts

Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.

Request a TRIAL of Max's Forex Service.


Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map

Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.



By using this website, you are agreeing to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use, and Cookie Policy

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105