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TradeTheNews.com EU Mid-Market Update: SNB said to be targeting a soft floor in EUR/CHF between 1.05-1.10; Euro Zone PMI Manufacturing data mixed


Mon, 02 Feb 2015 5:11 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- Both China Manufacturing PMI readings (Official and HSBC) register contractions; Jan PMI Manufacturing (Official) saw its first contraction since Sept 2012 (49.8 vs. 50.3e) while Final HSBC registered its 2nd consecutive month of contraction (49.7 v 49.8e)
- Greece new govt hints that an eventual compromise to be reached with EU on its bailout following tough initial line in the negotiations
- SNB said to have initiated a "soft floor" in EUR/CHF between 1.05-1.10
- Euro Zone PMI Manufacturing data mixed (Peripheral basically beat expectations while Core Europe revised lower in final readings)

**Economic data***
- (IN) India Jan Manufacturing PMI: 52.9 v 54.5 prior (3-month low)

- (JP) Japan Jan Vehicle Sales Y/Y: -18.9% v -8.8% prior (7th straight decline)
- (IE) Ireland Jan Manufacturing PMI: 55.1 v 56.9 prior (20th month of expansion but lowest since May)
- (RU) Russia Jan Manufacturing PMI: 47.6 v 48.9 prior (2nd month of contraction and lowest since Jun 2009)
- (SE) Sweden Jan PMI Manufacturing (miss): 55.1 v 55.9e (17th month of expansion)
- (NL) Netherlands Jan Manufacturing PMI: 54.1 v 53.5 prior (19th month of expansion)
- (NO) Norway Jan Manufacturing PMI (beat): 51.9v 49.3e (moves back into expansion)
- (PL) Poland Jan Manufacturing PMI (beat): 55.2 v 53.0e (4th month of expansion)
- (TR) Turkey Jan Manufacturing PMI: 49.8 v 51.4 prior (1st contraction in 7 months)
- (HU) Hungary Jan Manufacturing PMI: 54.2 v 50.9 prior (18th month of expansion)
- (HU) Hungary Nov Final Trade Balance: 0.8B v 0.8B prelim
- (CH) SNB Sight Deposits for Week Ended Jan 30th (CHF): 383.3B v 365.5B prior
- (ES) Spain Jan Manufacturing PMI (beat): 54.7 v 54.1e (14th month of expansion and highest since Nov)
- (CH) Swiss Jan PMI Manufacturing: 48.2 v 50.6e (lowest since Oct 2012)
- (CZ) Czech Republic Jan Manufacturing PMI: 56.1 v 54.0e
- (HK) Hong Kong Dec Retail sales (miss); Value: -3.9% v +4.4%e; Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: -1.3% v 7.5% prior
- (IT) Italy Jan Manufacturing PMI (beat): 49.9 v 48.8e (fourth consecutive month of contraction but highest reading since Sept)
- (FR) France Jan Final Manufacturing PMI (miss): 49.2 v 49.5e
(confirmed 9th straight month of contraction but highest since May)
- (DE) Germany Jan Final Manufacturing PMI (miss): 50.9 v 51.0e
(confirmed second consecutive month of expansion and lowest since Nov)
- (EU) Euro Zone Jan Final Manufacturing PMI (inline): 51.0 v 51.0e
(confirms 19th straight month of expansion and highest since July)
- (GR) Greece Jan Manufacturing PMI: 48.3 v 49.4 prior (fifth consecutive month of contraction)
- (ZA) South Africa Jan Kagiso Manufacturing PMI: 54.2 v 50.1e
- (UK) Jan PMI Manufacturing (beat): 53.0 v 52.7e (23rd month of expansion)
- (DK) Denmark Jan PMI Survey: 55.9 v 54.2 prior

Fixed Income:
- None seen in session

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
**Equities**
Indices [Stoxx50 -0.3%
, FTSE 100 +0.2% at 6,762, DAX +0.3% at 10,732, CAC-40 flat at 4,605, IBEX-35 -2% at 10,178, FTSE MIB -0.7% at 20,355, SMI +0.4% at 8,420, S&P 500 Futures flat at 1,989]

- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: Equity markets open mixed following declines on Friday's session; Spain's IBEX-35 underperforms amid weakness in banking sector and Telefonica; Greek banks open sharply higher as funding talks continued over the weekend; Julius Baer rises as the firm raised dividend and announced cost cuts; Ryanair issues cautious outlook for FY16; Lafarge/Holcim rise on plan to sell certain assets to CRH

By Sector
- Financials
[Julius Baer BAER.CH +6% (raised dividend, cost cuts) ]
- Consumer Discretionary [Ryanair RYA.UK -2% (cautious FY16 outlook) ]
- Energy [Afren AFR.UK +55% (lending agreement), Solar World SWVK.DE +10% (FY shipments above target)]
- Stoxx50 sectors [Energy +1%, Consumer Cyclical +0.9%, Financials +0.9%, Basic Materials +0.6%, Utilities +0.5%, Industrial +0.3%, Consumer Non-Cyclical +0.1%; Technology -0.7%, Telecom -0.6%]

**Speakers**
- ECB's Coeure
(France): QE gives governments a unique chance to implement structural reforms. Monetary union without risk sharing would be vulnerable
- ECB's Nowotny (Austria) stated that Oil price impact on inflation to ease in H2 and did not see disinflationary effect for full year. Believed Central Eastern Europe (CEE) on path to stabilize FX loans
- Bank of Italy's (BoI) Panetta: QE to boost growth
- Hungary Central Bank gov Matolcsy: Domestic economic outlook is promising against the backdrop of ECB QE. Would consider another possible rate cut based on March inflation report
- Norway Fin Min Sec Bjoernestad: 2015 GDP growth likely below 2.0%

**Currencies***
- EUR/CHF cross was firmly above the 1.05 level during the session after weekend press reports circulated that SNB was now unofficially targeting EUR/CHF corridor between 1.05-1.10 level (aka a soft floor)
. The SNB Sight Deposits for Week Ended Jan 30th (CHF) rose again and seen as an indication that the SNB had been in the market the weeks after its de-pegging announcement on January 15th
- The EUR/CHF price action also helped the EUR/USD move higher in the session with the pair testing 1.1350 just ahead of the NY morning.
- The AUD remained in focus ahead of Tuesday's RBA rate decision with a growing consensus that it could cut interest rates.

**Political/In the Papers:
- (GR) Greece PM Tsipras tells ECB's Draghi that his govt wants a mutually beneficial solution for Greece situation; Germany's Merkel has expressed she does not see another Greek debt cut - press
- (GR) Greece Fin Min Varoufakis: Aims to send detailed reform program by the end of February and agree on new debt deal by the end of May; Favors linking debt repayments to Greek growth.
- (GR) EU Commission President Juncker considering changing the way Troika officials negotiate with Greece. Open to ending official visits by the troika as long as Greece maintains its current reform path.
- (US) White House: Obama budget proposal will include a onetime 14% tax on US corporations' foreign earnings (**Note: said to be $2.1T in profits piled up abroad)

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (HU German Chancellor Merkel with Hungary PM Orban
- (ZA) South Africa Jan Naamsa Vehicle Sales Y/Y: No est v 10.7% prior
- (RO) Romania Jan International Reserves: No est v $35.5B prior
- (RU) Russia Sovereign Wealth Funds: Reserve Fund: No est v $87.9B prior; Wellbeing Fund: No est v $78.0B prior
- 05:30 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Weekly Economists Survey
- 06:00 (NL) Netherlands Debt Agency (DSTA) to sell 2.0-4.0B in 3-month and 6-month bills
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (BR) Brazil Manufacturing PMI: No est v 50.2 prior
- 08:00 (CZ) Czech Jan Budget Balance (CZK): No est v -77.8B prior
- 08:00 (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) announces size of upcoming 2019, 2029 and 2044 bonds
- 08:15 (US) Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 08:30 (US) Dec Personal Income: 0.2%e v 0.4% prior; Personal Spending: -0.2%e v +0.6% prior
- 08:30 (US) Dec PCE Deflator M/M: -0.3%e v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: 0.8%e v 1.2% prior
- 08:30 (US) Dec PCE Core M/M: 0.0%e v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 1.3%e v 1.4% prior

- 08:50 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) to sell combined 5.4-6.6B in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month Bills
- 09:30 (CA) Jan RBC Manufacturing PMI: No est v 53.9 prior
- 09:35 (EU) ECB calls for bids in 7-day main Refi
- 09:45 (EU) ECB announces weekly purchases under its covered bond program 3 (CBPP3)
- 09:45 (US) Jan Final Markit Manufacturing PMI: 53.7e v 53.7 prior
- 10:00 (US) Dec Construction Spending M/M: +0.7%e v -0.3% prior
- 10:00 (US) Jan ISM Manufacturing: 54.5e v 55.5 prior; Prices Paid: 39.8e v 38.5 prior

- 11:30 (AT) ECB's Nowotny (Austria) speaks at CEU University in Budapest
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell combined $52B in 3-Month and 6-Month Bills
- 12:00 (IT) Italy Jan New Car Registrations Y/Y: No est v 2.4% prior
- 12:00 (IT) Italy Jan Budget Balance: No est v 5.1B prior
- 12:00 (CO) Colombia Central Bank quarterly inflation report
- 14:00 (BR) Brazil Jan Trade Balance: -$3.0Be v $0.3B prior; Total Exports: $13.9Be v $17.5B prior; Total Imports: $16.9Be v $17.2B prior
- 14:00 (NZ) RBNZ Dep Gov Spencer
- 18:00 (KR) South Korea Jan CPI M/M: 0.6%e v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 0.9%e v 0.8% prior; CPI Core Y/Y: 2.1%e v 1.6% prior
- 19:30 (AU) Australia Dec Trade Balance (AUD): -0.9Be v -0.9B prior
- 22:30 (AU) RBA Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Cash Rate Target unchanged at 2.50%
- 22:00 (TH) Thailand Central Bank to sell THB45B in 12-month Bills
- 22:30 (HK) Hong Kong to 3-month and 6-month Bills
- 22:45 (JP) Japan to sell 10-Year JGB Bonds
- 00:30 (Tues) (IN) India Central Bank (RBI) Interest Rate Decision



 

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