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Monday February 2, 2015 - 16:11:48 GMT
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| | Email US Mid-Session update: Weak Jan Global Manufacturing Data

Mon, 02 Feb 2015 11:00 AM EST

***Economic Data***
- (BR) Brazil Manufacturing PMI: 50.7 v 50.2 prior (2nd straight month of expansion)
- (CZ) Czech Jan Budget Balance (CZK): +28.6B v -77.8B prior
- (RU) Russia 2014 Annual 2014 GDP Y/Y: 0.6% v 1.3% prior
- (US) Dec Personal Income: 0.3% v 0.2%e; Personal Spending: -0.3% v -0.2%e
- (US) Dec PCE Deflator M/M: -0.2% v -0.3%e; Y/Y: 0.7% v 0.8%e
- (US) Dec PCE Core M/M: 0.0% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 1.3% v 1.3%e
- (CA) Jan RBC Manufacturing PMI: 51.0 v 53.9 prior
- (US) Jan Final Markit Manufacturing PMI: 53.9 v 53.7e
- (US) Dec Construction Spending M/M: 0.4% v 0.7%e
- (US) Jan ISM Manufacturing: 53.5 v 54.5e; Prices Paid: 35.0 v 39.8e

The slide lower in US equity indices picked up right where it left off on Friday afternoon. Meanwhile the 10-year yield is around 1.679%, a few basis points off its earlier lows. US economic data points out this morning have not been reassuring, and the two-year low in the Chinese January manufacturing PMI numbers looms in the background. As of writing, the DJIA is down 0.22%, the S&P500 is donw 0.17% and the Nasdaq is off 0.46%.

The US January ISM Manufacturing index declined to its lowest level in 12 months, while the prices paid component dropped to its lowest level since spring of 2009. Separately, the December personal income rose more than expected while personal spending declined slightly more than expected. Core PCE was flat in December. Note that the final 2014 totals were not bad: personal spending rose 2.5% y/y, the strongest gain since 2006.

The move up in oil prices seen on Friday afternoon continued in the Asia and European sessions, as front-month WTI futures rose as high as $50.50, up more than 7% from Friday's low of around $44.30. Reports of ISIS attacks in northern Iraq were said to be behind the moves, although month-end trading and closing out of bearish positions was more likely. Note that there has also been talk about higher OPEC production in January and news the USW would launch strikes at nine US refineries, and WTI has fallen back to $48 as of writing.

Exxon's fourth-quarter earnings and revenue fell double digits from the year-ago quarter, with EPS above expectations and revenue well below the consensus view. Total production declined 3.8% y/y. The firm was reluctant to make any material comments about its outlook, although it warned that it would cut share buybacks to $1.0B in the first quarter of 2015 from $3.0B in the fourth quarter. Shares of XOM are up 1%.

***Looking Ahead***
- 12:00 (IT) Italy Jan New Car Registrations Y/Y: No est v 2.4% prior
- 12:00 (IT) Italy Jan Budget Balance: No est v 5.1B prior
- 14:00 (BR) Brazil Jan Trade Balance: -$3.0Be v $0.3B prior; Total Exports: $13.9Be v $17.5B prior; Total Imports: $16.9Be v $17.2B prior
- 18:00 (KR) South Korea Jan CPI M/M: 0.6%e v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 0.9%e v 0.8% prior; CPI Core Y/Y: 2.1%e v 1.6% prior
- 19:30 (AU) Australia Dec Trade Balance (AUD): -0.9Be v -0.9B prior
- 22:30 (AU) RBA Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Cash Rate Target unchanged at 2.50%


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