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Tuesday February 3, 2015 - 12:20:24 GMT
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Equity markets open higher amid gains in US stocks and decline in Greek bond yields; DAX trades at fresh record high; Greek equities rise over 7% amid new debt proposal


Tue, 03 Feb 2015 5:22 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- South Korea Jan CPI YoY reading matched a 13-month low and built the case for more BOK rate cuts but core hits a 3-year high
- RBA follows trend among the G10 central banks of delivering surprises; cuts Cash Rate Target by 25bps to 2.25% (record low)
- India Central Bank holds steady and not following its Jan rate cut
- Hungary Central Bank sees inflation improving but not enough to call for any emergency meeting to cut rates
- Greece plans for debt adjustments appeared to be less confrontational; Greek yield plummet

**Economic data***
- (IN) India Central Bank (RBI) left its Key Rates unchanged (as expected); left its Repurchase Rate unchanged at 7.75%

- (CH) Swiss Dec Trade Balance (CHF): 1.5B v 2.1Be; Real Exports M/M: -3.1% v +0.1% prior; Real Imports M/M: +0.7% v -3.0% prior
- (BR) Brazil Jan FIPE CPI (Sao Paulo) M/M: 1.6% v 1.6%e
- (ES) Spain Jan Net Unemployment (better) M/M: +78.0K v +88.0Ke
- (TR) Turkey Jan CPI data (miss); M/M: 1.1% v 0.7%e; Y/Y: 7.2% v 6.8%e; Core Index Y/Y: 8.6% v 8.1%e

- (UK) Jan Construction PMI (beats): 59.1 v 57.0e
- (EU) Euro Zone Dec PPI M/M: -1.0% v -0.7%e; Y/Y: -2.7% v -2.5%e
- (IT) Italy Jan Preliminary CPI (NIC incl. Tobacco): -0.4% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: -0.6% v -0.3%e

Fixed Income:
- (ZA) South Africa sold total ZAR2.35B in 2030, 2044 and 2048 bonds
- (CH) Switzerland sold CHF948.5M in 3-month Bills; Yield: -1.301%
- (EU) ECB allotted 151.8B in 7-day Main Refinancing Tender at fixed 0.05% vs. 145.0Be

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
**Equities**
Indices [Stoxx50 +1.4%
, DAX +1.2% at 10,960, CAC-40 +1.3% at 4,686, IBEX-35 +1.9% at 10,526, FTSE MIB +1.9% at 20,869, SMI +0.7% at 8,484, Athens Stock Exchange +6.3%, S&P 500 Futures flat at 2,016]

- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: Equity markets open higher amid gains in US stocks and decline in Greek bond yields; DAX trades at fresh record high; Greek equities rise over 7% amid new debt proposal; BP profits above ests, BG cut dividend; Santander Q4 results in line, Swedbank misses, Danske Bank beats; Shanghai trades sharply higher amid continued easing speculation

By Sector
- Financials
[Santander SAN.ES +2% (Q4 results in line), Barclays BARC.UK +2% (broker commentary), Danske Bank +1% (dividend above ests); Aberdeen Asset Management ADN.UK -2% (AUM declined)]
- Energy [BP.UK +4% (Q4 profits above ests)]
- Utilities [RWE RWE.DE -3% (negative EU court ruling)]
- Stoxx50 Sectors [Energy +3%, Consumer Cyclical +1.9%, Industrials +1.8%, Financials +1.4%, Telecom +1.3%, Consumer Non-Cyclical +0.8% Technology +0.7%, Basic Materials +0.6% ;Utilities -2%]

**Speakers**
- Greece Fin Min Varoufakis
said to have asked for country to issue an additional 10B in Bills to cover financing gap
- France Fin Min Sapin reiterated that reasonable for Greece to ask for time as long as has reform plan that would be gradually strengthened. EU Treaties did not require Troika inspections in Greece
- Turkey Central Bank (CBRT) stated after the Jan CPI data that it would NOT hold any emergency meeting on Wed, Feb 4th and thus hold its regular scheduled meeting on Feb 24th. Inflation indicators continued to improve on its cautious monetary policy
- Poland Central Bank: CHF-currency (Swiss) appreciation poses no threat to domestic financial system stability. Stress test shows banking sector was resilient to potential deep slowdown in GDP and market turbulences
- Russia to spend RUB22B on first phase of anti-crisis measures through end of March with RUB10B promised to support agriculture and RUB5B designated for the auto industry
- India Central Bank (RBI) Gov Rajan post rate decision commentary noted that steps have been taken to spur growth in India, and aid stability; 1.5-2% was a reasonable real rate for India. Monetary policy to be driven by incoming data. Won't intervene to target fx rate level; Perfectly comfortable with where the INR currency (Rupee) was at
- Thailand Central Bank stated that it saw negative headline inflation until Q2 if oil prices remained low but it would unlikely to lead to policy change as development was seen as short-term. Inflation to pick up in Q3 with Q4 inflation seen at lower end of target
- China said to be considering options to address capital flow volatility; including widening of Yuan Trading band (**Note: The Yuan Trading band was last widened back on Mar 16th 2014 to 2.0% from 1.0%)

**Currencies***
- The EUR/USD continued to consolidate after hitting 11-year lows over a week ago.
Dealers continued to believe that the Euro was doomed to resume the trend lower. Greek uncertainty and ECB QE provided a negative environment for EUR
- The AUD currency was broadly weaker and back to levels last seen in 2009 after RBA delivered a surprise rate cut. Analyst noted that RBA's move was consistent with the global disinflation theme (**Note: we have seen dovish surprises by approx. a dozen central banks in previous weeks now)
- German 10-year Bund yield moves below the Japanese 10-year JGB yield for the first time ever
- Greece 10-year gov't yield move lower during the session from 10.62% at the open to test under 9.60%.

**Political/In the Papers:
- Russia to hold military exercises in the Southern portion of country which would involve Caspian Sea naval forces, Black Sea air force and motorized infantry detachments
- (GR) Greece released its updated plans for debt adjustments; sought to swap outstanding debt for new growth linked bonds. Govt is no longer requesting a write off of Greece's 315B in foreign debt. Greece plans for debt adjustments appeared to be less confrontational and sought to swap outstanding debt for new growth linked bonds

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (PL) Poland Central Bank begins 2-day monetary policy meeting (decision on Wed)
- (GR) Greece PM Tsiparas to meet Italy PM Renzi in Rome
- 05:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to sell 3-month Bills
- 05:30 (BE) Belgium to sell combined 2.4B in 3-month and 6-month Bills
- 06:00 (BR) Brazil Dec Industrial Production M/M: -2.5%e v -0.7% prior; Y/Y: -2.6%e v -5.8% prior

- 06:30 (EU) ESM to sell 1.5B in 3-month Bills
- 07:00 (RU) Russia announces weekly OFZ bond auction
- 07:45 (US) Chain Store Sales
- 08:15 (US) Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 08:30 (SG) Singapore Jan Purchasing Managers Index: 49.8e v 49.6 prior; Electronics Sector Index: 50.4e v 50.5 prior
-08:30 (CA) Canada Dec Industrial Product Price M/M: -0.8%e v -0.4% prior; Raw Materials Price Index M/M: -9.0%e v -5.8% prior
- 08:55 (US) Weekly Redbook Sales
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Dec Leading Indicators M/M: No est v 0.04 prior
- 09:00 (EU) Weekly ECB Forex Reserves
- 09:45 (US) Jan ISM New York: No est v 70.8 prior
- 10:00 (US) Feb IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism: 51.4e v 51.5 prior
- 10:00 (US) Dec Factory Orders: -2.2%e v -0.7% prior

- 10:00 (US) Possible revisions to Dec Durable Goods Orders
- 10:00 (DK) Denmark Jan Foreign Reserves (DKK): No est v 446.8 prior
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Dec Total Remittances: No est v $1.8B prior
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Central Bank Economist Survey
- 10:00 (US) Fed's Bullard discusses economics in Newark, DE
- 10:30 (MX) Mexico Manufacturing PMI: No est v 55.3 prior
- 10:30 (UK) DMO announces size of upcoming 3.5% 2043 Gilt
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 4-week and 52-weel bills
- 11:45 (US) Fed's Kocherlakota Speaks on Economy in St. Pauls, MN
- 13:00 (MX) Mexico Jan IMEF Manufacturing Index (Seasonally Adj): No est v 49.7 prior; Non-Manufacturing Index (Seasonally Adj): No est v 49.9 prior
- 14:00 (US) President Obama
- 16:00 (KR) South Korea Jan Foreign Reserves: No est v $363.6B prior
- 16:30 (US) Weekly API Oil Inventories
- 16:45 (NZ) New Zealand Q4 Unemployment Rate: No est v 5.4% prior
- 16:45 (NZ) New Zealand Q4 Employment Change Q/Q: No est v 0.8% prior; Y/Y: No est v 3.2% prior
- 17:00 (US) Jan Wards Domestic Vehicle Sales: 13.60Me v 13.46M prior; Total Vehicle Sales: 16.85Me v 16.80M prior
- 18:00 (NZ) RBNZ Governor Wheeler speaks in Christchurch
- 19:01 (UK) Jan BRC Shop Price Index Y/Y: No est v -1.7% prior
- 20:30 (JP) BOJ Dep Govr Iwata speech
- 20:30 (JP) Japan Dec Labor Cash Earnings Y/Y: No est v +0.1% prior (revised from -1.5%); Real Cash Earnings Y/Y: No est v -2.7% prior (revised from -4.3%)
- 20:35 (JP) Japan Services PMI: No est v 51.7 prior; Composite PMI: No est v 51.9 prior
- 20:45 (CN) China HSBC Services PMI: No est v 53.4 prior; Composite PMI: No est v 51.4 prior
- 21:30 (HK) Hong Kong Jan HSBC Services PMI: No est v 50.3 prior
- 22:00 (CN) China to sell CNY20B in 5-Year Bonds
- 22:00 (TH) Thailand to sell THB9.0B in 2037 Bonds
- 22:30 (HK) Hong Kong to sell HKD1.5B in 5-Year Bond
- 23:30 (TW) Taiwan to Sell TWD40 Bln 2-Yr Bonds



 

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