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TradeTheNews.com EU Mid-Market Update: Eurogroup again meets on Greece; Major European PMI data mixed; UK retail sales miss expectations


Fri, 20 Feb 2015 5:15 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- Eurogroup to again meet on Greece; recent proposal seen as basis for discussion and compromise
- Germany sees Greek extension letter as essentially another proposal for a bridge loan and only pays lip services to sticking to existing agreements
- German PPI inflation falls further into negative territory
- Major European PMI data mixed (Manufacturing misses for France, Germany and Euro Zone while Services beats expectations for each country)
- UK Jan Retail Sales misses expectations with lower back month revisions; Retail Sales Deflator Y/Y: -3.1% (record decline)

**Economic data***
- (DE) Germany Jan PPI (miss); M/M: -0.6% v -0.4%e; Y/Y: -2.2% v -2.0%e

- (JP) Japan Jan Convenience Store Sales Y/Y: -0.7% v -1.2% prior (9th straight decline)
- (FR) France Feb Preliminary Manufacturing PMI (miss): 47.7 v 49.6e; Services PMI (beat): 53.4 v 49.9e; Composite PMI: 52.2 v 49.8e
- (SE) Sweden Feb Consumer Confidence (miss): 97.4 v 99.5e; Manufacturing Confidence: 106.8 v 106.8e; Economic Tendency Survey: 104.8 v 106.0e
- (DE) Germany Feb Preliminary Manufacturing PMI (miss): 50.9 v 51.5e; Services PMI (beat): 55.5 v 54.4e; Composite PMI: 54.3 v 54.0e
- (NL) Netherlands Feb Consumer Confidence Index: -7 v -6 prior
- (EU) Euro Zone Feb Preliminary Manufacturing PMI (miss): 51.1v 51.5e; Services PMI (beat): 53.9 v 53.0e; Composite PMI: 54.3 v 53.0e
- (UK) Jan Public Finances (PSNCR) (miss): -18.9B v +21.4B prior; Public Sector Net Borrowing (beat): -9.4B v -9.3Be
- (UK) Jan Retail Sales Ex Auto (miss) M/M: -0.7% v -0.3%e; Y/Y: 4.8% v 5.9%e
- (UK) Jan Retail Sales (Including Auto) (miss) M/M: -0.3% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: 5.4% v 5.9%e

- (IT) Italy Jan Final CPI M/M: -0.4% v -0.4% prelim; Y/Y: -0.6% v -0.6% prelim; CPI Index Ex Tobacco: 106.5 v 107.0 prior

Fixed income:
- None seen

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
**Equities**
- Indices[Stoxx50 -0.3%, FTSE 100 flat at 6,892, DAX -0.2% at 10,971, CAC-40 -0.4% at 4,814, IBEX-35 -0.3% at 10,872, FTSE MIB flat at 21,776, SMI flat at 8,900, Athens Stock Exchange +1%, S&P 500 Futures flat at 2,093]

Market Focal Points/Key Themes: Equity markets open generally lower ahead of Eurogroup meeting on Greece; Greek equities open higher; Danone FY profits below ests, Telecom Italia inline; Eramet rises on rebound in FY profits; Euro zone services PMI above ests, manufacturing below ests

By Sector
- Energy
[Areva AREVA.FR -2% (recapitalization concerns)]
- Basic Materials/Resources [Eramet ERA.FR +9% (FY results above ests)]
- Financials [Standard Life SL.UK +1.5% (raised dividend)]
- Consumer Staples [Danone BN.FR -1.5% (FY profits below ests, cautious outlook)]
- Industrials [Pfeiffer Vacuum PFV.DE -9% (FY profits declined)]
- Technology [Gemalto GTO.FR -7% (hacking concerns) ]
- Stoxx50 Sectors [Financials -0.7%, Technology -0.4%, Consumer Non-Cyclical -0.4%, Utilities -0.2%, Energy -0.2%, Telecom -0.2% Basic Materials -0.2%; Consumer Cyclical +0.4%, Industrials +0.2%]

**Speakers**
- Greece Govt Spokesman:
Have done all it should to find mutually beneficial solution with euro zone partners Reiterated not discussing continuing bailout program and would maintain this positon at Eurogroup.
- Greece Govt Official: Euro zone and Greece have covered 80% of ground, still need to agree on 20% at Friday's meeting
- Germany SPD Caucus Head Scheider: Need to stand firm on Greece; Tsipras govt needs to face reality.
- Austria Central Bank to propose systemic risk buffer (Specifics not disclosed)
- Turkey President Erdogan: Central Bank has no excuse to cut interest rates after 'dovish' FOMC minutes. Turkey should be basing its stance on internal dynamics and not the Fed. Turkey has room for up to 75bps in rate cuts
- Russia Central Bank First Dep Gov Yudayeva: Peak of RUB currency (ruble) volatility has ended
- Indonesia Central Bank Gov Martowardojo: Monetary policy remained on a tightening bias; aimed for 2015 inflation below 4.0%

**Currencies***
- Optimism on A Greek compromised seemed to wane
. EUR/USD was lower for the 3rd straight session. The EUR/USD gunned for sell stops below the weekly low of 1.1320 area. The pair remained 200+ pips above its 1-year low.
- The typical JPY currency-Nikkei correlation has diminished in recent session. The yen was actually firmer again while the Nikkei 225 Index hit fresh 15 year highs above 18,330.
- The GBP remained soft throughout the session. Dealers continued to highlight dovish comments made from former BOE hawk McCafferty. The MPC member also noted that strength in GBP was an issue we have to watch. EUR/GBP hit fresh 7-year lows in session at 0.7340

**Political/In the Papers:
- (GR) IMF prepared to work with European partners and Greece; all parties working to minimize risks to financial stability as a result of the Greece situation
- (US) Fed's Bullard (moderate, non voter): Reiterates ZIRP is not the appropriate policy stance for US economy; Removing "patient" from Fed language could allow but not obligate a rate increase in June

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)
- 06:00 (FI) Finland govt confidence vote
- 06:00 (IS) Iceland to sell 2017 and 2020 Bonds
- 06:00 (UK) DMO to sell combined 3.0B in 1-month, 3-month and 6-month Bills (0.5B, 1.0B and 1.5B respectively)
- 06:00 (EU) Weekly ECB 3-Year LTRO Repayment vs. 10.0Be
- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Jan PPI M/M: No est v -0.4% prior; Y/Y: No est v 2.3% prior
- 06:30 (IN) India Weekly Forex Reserves w/e Feb 13th: No est v $330.2B prior
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:30 (TR) Turkey Central Bank TCMB Survey of Expectations
- 07:45 (FR) German Chancellor Merkel with France President Hollande in Paris
- 08:15 (US) Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 08:30 (US) Revisions of Consumer Price Index
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Dec Retail Sales M/M: -0.4%e v +0.4% prior; Retail Sales Ex Auto M/M: -0.8%e v +0.7% prior
- 08:30 (US) Weekly USDA Net Export Sales
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Q4 GDP Q/Q: 0.9%e v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: 2.7%e v 2.2% prior; GDP Nominal Y/Y: No est v 5.9% prior
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Dec Economic Activity Index (Monthly GDP) Y/Y: 3.0%e v 2.0% prior
- 09:00 (BE) Belgium Feb Consumer Confidence Index: No est v -9 prior
- 09:00 (GR) Eurogroup meeting on Greece loan extension
- 09:45 (US) Feb Preliminary Markit Manufacturing PMI: 53.6e v 53.9 prior

- 11:30 (ES) Moody's might comment on Spain sovereign rating (currently at Baa2)
- 11:30 (EU) S&P on EFSF
- 11:30 (DK) Fitch to comment on Denmark sovereign rating
- 11:30 (SK) Fitch on Slovakia sovereign rating
- 13:00 (US) Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count w/e Feb 20th
- 14:00 (GR) Eurogroup press conference
- (CO) Colombia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Overnight Lending Rate unchanged
- (MX) Mexico Banamex Survey of Economists

Weekend
(IT) Pope Francis Expected to Meet with German Chancellor Merkel

 

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15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
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13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
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Fri 24 Nov
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